Hmmmm..... Listen please... 🙋♀️
It seemed almost clear to me until a few days ago.
As long as the lower liquidity, especially around $61K, was untouched, I thought the market might go there at some point. Because sometimes the market doesn't go directly where everyone is looking. Instead, it turns around a bit in the middle, takes some liquidity and then decides the direction.
So I was bearish even after watching the whole move.
But this is where the market sometimes changes its own story.
What is noticeable now is that BTC has risen above the descending trendline. Not only did it break out, it also showed a good bounce after the retest. This part seems more important to me than the breakout. Because only if resistance can become support can we think about changing the structure.
Still... I don't want to make any big decisions right now.
Because a trendline break is not always the same as a trend reversal. Sometimes, before the market structure changes, such false confidence is also created. So for me, the most important level now is $65.4K.
The funny thing is, the whole discussion is now revolving around a number. But in reality, it's not just that number. Rather, it's how the market behaves above that level that is the real issue.
If buyers can really hold the price above $65.4K, then the bearish structure will weaken a lot. Then the possibility of going towards $67K will seem much more real than before.
I sometimes think that the hardest thing in trading is not making predictions.
The hardest thing is being able to change your opinion.
We often become so comfortable with a bias that even if the market changes, we don't change our thoughts. But the chart doesn't follow anyone's opinion. It only follows the price.
That's why my previous bearish view is now gradually weakening.
Because the scenario I was expecting—that is, first a $61K liquidity sweep, then a bounce—doesn't seem as likely as it was after the breakout.
Is it impossible?
No.
Liquidity may still be there. The market can collect it later if it wants.
But the probability is no longer where it was.
This small difference is very big.
Not everything in trading is done with certainty. Most of the time, decisions have to be made with probability. And if the probability changes, the analysis should also change.
Another thing I find interesting.
Many people assume that a bull market has started after seeing a breakout. Others don't want to give up their previous bias. In reality, maybe the middle ground is more important.
A breakout has happened, right?
A retest has happened.
A bounce has happened.
But the structure will be completely invalidated only when buyers can clearly show control above $65.4K.
That's probably where the next direction is hidden.
If that happens, the short-term outlook would also be bullish to me and it would make more sense to focus on higher prices.
And if it doesn't, the market could get stuck in a range again. That wouldn't be unusual either.
That's why reaction is more important than the chart right now.
Where the price is is one thing.
What the price does there is a completely different thing.
Maybe the next few candles will determine whether this breakout was the start of a new trend or just another short-lived move.
At least that's what I see right now.
I'm not biased, I'm trying to listen to what the market is saying.
