#Nine nights of conflict in Iran have passed, and tensions remain high. President Trump has declared the Strait of Hormuz to be under American control. Despite all the geopolitical drama, Bitcoin has barely moved, gaining just 0.05% today. Gold, another asset investors usually rush into during uncertain times, is actually down 3% this week and remains below $4,000.
Normally, both Bitcoin and gold are expected to rally during periods of war and uncertainty. But this time, that's not what's happening.
The real story is oil. Brent crude has climbed close to $90 a barrel, its highest level in a month. Rising oil prices are increasing inflation concerns, which has pushed expectations for a September interest rate hike from 47% to 53%. In other words, the conflict is driving oil prices higher, higher oil is fueling inflation fears, and that is strengthening the case for a more hawkish Federal Reserve.
We've seen this before. During the 2022 Russia–Ukraine war, aggressive Fed rate hikes outweighed the usual safe-haven demand, causing both Bitcoin and gold to fall together. When the US dollar becomes stronger, it often puts pressure on risk assets and even traditional safe havens.
Meanwhile, institutional investors are making a different move. This week, Ethereum ETFs attracted around $105 million in inflows, compared to $76 million for Bitcoin ETFs, with BlackRock's ETHA leading the way. Instead of buying the entire crypto market, institutions appear to be focusing on Ethereum.
Outside of crypto, Apple has overtaken Nvidia as the world's most valuable company, with a market value of $4.88 trillion versus Nvidia's $4.86 trillion. The shift reflects growing questions about the pace of AI spending rather than anything related to crypto.
#btcprice
Normally, both Bitcoin and gold are expected to rally during periods of war and uncertainty. But this time, that's not what's happening.
The real story is oil. Brent crude has climbed close to $90 a barrel, its highest level in a month. Rising oil prices are increasing inflation concerns, which has pushed expectations for a September interest rate hike from 47% to 53%. In other words, the conflict is driving oil prices higher, higher oil is fueling inflation fears, and that is strengthening the case for a more hawkish Federal Reserve.
We've seen this before. During the 2022 Russia–Ukraine war, aggressive Fed rate hikes outweighed the usual safe-haven demand, causing both Bitcoin and gold to fall together. When the US dollar becomes stronger, it often puts pressure on risk assets and even traditional safe havens.
Meanwhile, institutional investors are making a different move. This week, Ethereum ETFs attracted around $105 million in inflows, compared to $76 million for Bitcoin ETFs, with BlackRock's ETHA leading the way. Instead of buying the entire crypto market, institutions appear to be focusing on Ethereum.
Outside of crypto, Apple has overtaken Nvidia as the world's most valuable company, with a market value of $4.88 trillion versus Nvidia's $4.86 trillion. The shift reflects growing questions about the pace of AI spending rather than anything related to crypto.
#btcprice