Preface: A fan friend fed my articles written over the past nearly three years to AI, analyzing and organizing my overall trading style, thanks to this friend. I know many friends are silently supporting me, and to be honest, I’m quite touched. Actually, I don’t have much skill in writing articles, nor do I deliberately try to generate traffic; it’s more about outputting while organizing my trading thoughts, which is a form of self-growth. If it can help everyone, that’s best; now I’m sharing the analysis results from AI.
Coin Grandpa's Cryptocurrency Trading Mindset:
Based on 'Coin Grandpa's' daily records from November 2022 to August 2025, his trading mindset reflects deep experience in bull and bear cycles, emphasizing contrarian operations, position management, and long-term value orientation. He views the crypto market as a high-volatility opportunity space but remains alert to human weaknesses and risks, striving for stable returns across cycles. The following organizes his detailed thinking based on logical framework, including market cognition, emotion management, strategy execution, asset selection, risk control, and long-term vision.
1. Market Cycle Cognition: Bull Short, Bear Long, Cycle Drives Everything
Bear Market Predominates, Opportunities in Lulls: He Believes Crypto Markets Are Bearish or Sideways 90% of the Time ('Garbage Time'), Bear Markets Often Last 1-2 Years (e.g., 2022-2023), Characterized by Liquidity Exhaustion, Shrinking Trade Volumes (e.g., Daily Trading Volume on Exchanges Dropping to Historical Lows), Prices Declining or Plummeting (e.g., FTX Incident Leading to Market Collapse). Bear Market Bottom Signals: No One Cares, Extremely Pessimistic Sentiment (e.g., Collectively Bearish on BTC to 10K), Low Volatility, Institutions Accumulating (e.g., Testing Support Levels Multiple Times Without Breaking). He Emphasizes Bear Markets as Golden Periods for Position Building, Multiple Calls to Layout at Low Points (e.g., BTC 16000, ETH 1000), Viewing Them as 'Sowing Periods', Waiting for Bull Markets to 'Bloom'.
Bull Markets are Brief and Frenzied, Easy to Make Mistakes: Bull Markets Last Only 3-6 Months (Previous Round Lasted About a Year), Huge Gains but Prone to Bubbles (e.g., Collapse After 2021 High). Issues in Bull Markets: Difficulty in Taking Profit (High Emotions Leading to Buying High or Not Selling), Clear Differentiation (BTC Rising Alone, Altcoins Rotating). His Signals for Bull Market Start: Capital Inflow (e.g., ETF Approval, Institutional Purchases), Hot Narratives (e.g., DeFi Summer, Inscription Fever), General Rise (e.g., Mainstream/Altcoins Following). This Round's Bull Market (2024-2025) Driven by: Halving Cycle, ETF Funds, Friendly Policies (e.g., Trump Support), Expected BTC Target 100-150K, ETH 10K, but Divided into 'Small Bull' (Upward Movement in the First Half) and 'Big Bull' (Full Explosion Next Year).
Cycle-Linked External Factors: Market Influenced by Macroeconomics (e.g., Fed Interest Rate Hikes Leading to Liquidity Crises, Rate Cut Expectations Boosting Risk Assets). Amplifier Effect in the Crypto Space: External Good News (e.g., US Stocks Rising) Drives Rebound, but Independence Strong (e.g., Black Swans Like FTX Leading to Misjudgment). Historical Cycle: BTC 4-Year Cycle (1 Down, 3 Up), Small Market Speculation Before Halving, Effects Show 1 Year After Halving. He Views BTC as 'Gold Substitute', ETH as 'King of Applications', Emphasizing 'Value + Speculation' Balance in the Cycle.
Technical Indicators as Support: Focus on Support/Resistance Levels (e.g., BTC 60K Support, 110K Resistance), Trend Lines (Daily Uptrend Maintained Leads to Rebound), Volatility (Low Volatility Brews Big Markets). Poor Liquidity Amplifies Volatility, Prone to Whipsaws (e.g., Weekends/Holidays).
2. Emotion and Humanity Management: Contrarian Thinking, Belief Recharge is Key
Emotion as a Contrarian Indicator: Buy in Panic ('Maximum Panic at the Bottom'), Sell in Frenzy ('Maximum Greed at the Top'). He Often 'Recharges Belief' in Bear Markets (Calling for Layout at BTC 16K, ETH 1000), 'Pours Cold Water' in Bull Markets (Reduce Positions at Highs). Bear Market Traps: Fear to Buy (Waiting for Lower Prices), Easy to Sell (Panic Stop Loss, e.g., '480K Brother' Selling on Rebound); Bull Market Traps: Chase Highs, Not Taking Profit (Getting Stuck at Highs). He Emphasizes Overcoming 'Cognitive Inertia' (Less Viewing and Acting in Bear Markets, Selling High and Buying Low in Bull Markets).
Psychological Resilience: The Pain of Bear Markets Lies in Unrealized Losses + Time ('Dull Knife Cutting Meat'), Solution: View Bear Markets as 'Sowing Period', Build Positions in Batches to Lower Costs, Enforce Locking Up (e.g., Small Circle Staking BNB/ETH). In Bull Markets, Beware of 'Path Dependence' (Tasting Sweetness During Swing Trading, Selling Low-Cost Chips). He Creates Small Circles for Warmth, Emphasizing 'Optimists Succeed, Pessimists are Right', Belief Comes from BTC Anti-Inflation, ETH Ecological Prosperity.
Addressing Human Weaknesses: Operate Against Human Nature (e.g., Buy When Market is Bearish), Anchor Position Psychology (Low-Cost Chips are Easy to Hold). He Views the Institutions as 'Enemies', Institutions Wash Positions in Bear Markets (Long-Term Fluctuations + Bad News), Sell in Bull Markets (Pump and Induce). Suggestion: Anchor Value Rather Than Price Psychologically, Long-Term Holding 'Ignore Volatility'.
3. Strategy Execution: Scale Out on the Left Side, Position Control, Swing Trading Supports Long-Term
Position Building Principles: Scale Out on the Left Side, Speculate on Rebounds with Long-Term: Do Not Predict Bottom in Bear Markets (e.g., BTC May Break 10K but Probability Low), Scale Buy in USDT (e.g., BTC 16000 Buy 10K USDT, Buy Again at 12000, Lower Cost). Left-Side Trading (Enter During Lulls) is Better than Right-Side (Wait for Reversal), Layered Positioning: 30-50% Base Position (Long-Term), 10-20% Tactical (Swing), Total Position 50-80% to Avoid Full Position. Regular Investment in Bear Markets (Fixed Daily Amount in BTC, Cycle 1-2 Years).
Take Profit and Reduce Positions: Flexible and Agile, Scale Out at Highs: Reduce Tactical Positions at Resistance Levels (e.g., BTC 18000, ETH 4100), Hold Long Term to Bull Market Highs (Double Out of Cost, Retain Profit Coins). Scale Out in Bull Markets (Reduce 10% for Every 1000 Rise), Swing Trading Principles: Sell at Resistance, Buy at Support, Capture 10-20% Spread. In the Second Half of Bull Market 'More Crashes', Buy the Dip, Take Profit on Rallies.
Operational Rhythm: Small Markets, Small Positions, Learn More: Less Activity in Bear Markets (Be Cautious with Contracts, Prone to Liquidation), Sell High, Buy Low in Bull Markets. Swing Trading Tools: Options (Sell Calls for Rent, Dual-Token Wins), Arbitrage (Funding Rates, Short-Term Loans). Short-Term Sideways/Fluctuations Common ('Garbage Time'), Patience Required ('Enduring Loneliness'). Strategies Change with Cycles: Build Positions on the Left Side in Bear Markets, Follow Up on the Right Side in Bull Markets.
Cash Flow Planning: Open Source and Save, Key Out-of-Market Capital: In Bear Markets, Open Source (Arbitrage, New Listings, Airdrop Harvesting), Save (Less Leverage, Diversify Assets). In Bull Markets, Realize Part of the Profit, Out-of-Market Income to Supplement Funds ('Idle Money Investment').
4. Asset Selection: Value-Oriented, Diversified Allocation
Core Assets: BTC/ETH as Main: Highest Safety, Long-Term Value Growth (e.g., BTC Anti-Inflation, Network Effect; ETH Ecological Prosperity, 'Supercomputer'). He Views BTC as 'Gold Substitute', ETH as 'King of Applications', Heavily Invest in Bear Markets (High Holdings in ETH), Hold Positions in Bull Markets (Bet on ETH Outperforming BTC). Target for This Round's Bull Market: BTC 100-150K, ETH 10K.
Mainstream and Altcoins: Balance Risk and Return: Mainstream (e.g., BNB, SOL, LTC, XRP, DeFi Blue Chips like AAVE, COMP, UNI): Strong Fundamentals, Will Not Die (DeFi Exchange Trend, LSDfi Potential), Scale Out in Bear Markets, Rotate Allocation in Bull Markets. Altcoins (10-20% Position): Speculate for High Multiples (Dozens to Hundreds of Times), Screening: Listing on Major Exchanges (BN/OK), Institutional Investment (Binance Labs/A16z), Past Pumping in Bear Markets (Controlled by Institutions), Low Market Cap (Avoid High Unlocking like OP). Avoid Clone Coins/Outdated Projects (e.g., DeFi Clones).
Sector Allocation: Trends + Hotspots: Prioritize DeFi (the 'Cornerstone'), Web3 (Infrastructure), GameFi (Application Landing), AI Agent (Emerging Narrative) in Bull Markets. Focus on Value in Bear Markets (e.g., DeFi Blue Chips, L2 Ecosystems like ARB/OP), Chase Hotspots in Bull Markets (e.g., Inscription/MEME, but Small Positions). L1/L2: ETH as Main Chain, SOL/Aptos as High-Frequency Applications.
Value Judgment: Focus on Intrinsic Growth Rather Than Price: Pay Attention to Business Model, Cash Flow, Team (e.g., DeFi Cash Flow, Ecological TVL), Narrative Potential (e.g., RWA, Restaking). Prioritize Misjudged Opportunities (e.g., BIT's misjudgment caused by the FTX incident). New Narratives for Bull Markets (e.g., AI Agent), Choose Blue Chips in Bear Markets (DeFi/LSDfi).
5. Risk Control: Preventing Black Swans, Safety First
Black Swan Awareness: Bear Markets Are Prone to Exploding Risks (e.g., FTX Misappropriating Funds, Luna Collapse, 500K ETH Stolen from Bybit). Solution: Withdraw to Wallet (Cold Wallet Priority, Separate Placement), Avoid Small Exchanges/Projects, Choose Top DeFi Protocols. Opportunities After Black Swans (e.g., Misjudged Recovery).
Liquidity/Volatility Risks: Lack of Liquidity in Bear Markets, Prone to Collapse/Whipsaws (e.g., Weekends/Holidays). Avoid Contracts ('Easy to Liquidate'), Focus on Spot. Strong Control by Institutions (Dog Coins Nine Times Out of Ten Lose).
External/Internal Risks: Macroeconomic (e.g., Interest Rate Liquidity Crisis, Tariff Wars), Policy (e.g., SEC Lawsuits, Tax Reforms), Project Crashes (e.g., Unlocking Pressure). Diversify: Core + Mainstream + Altcoins (Mainstream Accounts for 60-70%). Asset Safety: Avoid Leverage, Backup Private Keys, Minimize Transfers.
Emotion/Humanity Risks: Panic Selling (Cutting Losses at Low Levels), FOMO Buying High. Control: Position Not Exceeding 80%, Double Out of Cost, Keep Cash Flow. Cycle Risks: Bear Market 'Washing Belief', Bull Market 'Inducing More Selling'.
6. Long-Term Vision: Value Growth, Belief Driven
Industry Potential: Crypto Market Cap Low (BTC Accounts for Half), Unlimited Space Compared to Gold/US Stocks. BTC Anti-Inflation/Network Effect, ETH Ecological Innovation (DeFi/Restaking/L2). He Sees the Crypto Space as 'A Land of Heroic Dreams', Long-Term Optimistic ('Big Bull Market 100K BTC, 10K ETH').
Investment Philosophy: Time for Space (Bear Market Beta, Bull Market Alpha). Belief Comes from Technological Transformation (Blockchain/Smart Contracts), Capital Inflow (ETFs/Institutions). Bull Market 'Value + Narrative' (DeFi/Inscription/AI Agent).
Life Inspiration: Investment is Like Life, Stick to the Right Thing ('Enduring Loneliness'). Crossing Cycles ('Bull Short, Bear Long'), Banding Together for Warmth (Small Circle). Success Comes from Effort + Belief ('Optimists Succeed').
Overall, 'Coin Grandpa's' Thinking is Pragmatic and Contrarian: Recharge Belief Layout in Bear Markets, Pour Cold Water on Taking Profit in Bull Markets. He Sees the Market as 'Institution vs Retail' Game, Emphasizing Execution (Scaling Out/Swing Trading), Learning (New Narratives/Arbitrage), Ultimately Crossing Cycles to Achieve Excess Returns.