I sold one-third of my ETH position today.
Many will think I'm crazy, but I've seen the market trends of 2017 and 2021 and know what this situation means.
Although I remain optimistic about the market, my plan is to completely liquidate by the end of October.
The market has made a strong rebound, but the peak will eventually come.
This year, Bitcoin has doubled from its lows, showing strong institutional demand and market momentum. Ethereum has also successfully stabilized above $4200, paving the way for the final surge.
However, history tells us that every cycle's peak is sudden and intense; waiting is the most dangerous strategy.
Target price levels and capital rotation patterns.
My short-term target is for ETH to hit the $5800 to $6000 range, about three times the cycle low, which aligns with the expansion levels during past bull markets.
Once the peak is reached, funds will quickly rotate from Ethereum and large-cap coins to smaller altcoins, creating explosive opportunities but also significantly increasing risks.
This sequence of 'BTC→ETH→large-cap coins→small-cap coins' has played out without exception in 2017 and 2021.
Market sentiment is about to peak; planning for an exit in advance is essential.
The market is currently in an ETH-dominated phase, with ample liquidity and extremely optimistic sentiment. However, this phase usually lasts only a few weeks before liquidity sharply exits.
If you haven't planned your exit in advance, you may end up being the 'bag holder' when others offload.
Expected timing of market turning points and subsequent performance.
I predict that Bitcoin will peak by the end of September, followed by Ethereum entering a correction. By the end of October, BTC may drop to $55,000, ETH could fall to $1,400, and SOL may retreat to around $75.
This is not a pessimistic prediction but rather the norm of corrections following historical peaks. Smart capital always starts to withdraw months before retail investors realize the market changes.
Why start planning your exit now?
When market momentum disappears, your reaction time is extremely limited.
Altcoins could drop 20% to 30% in a single day and may struggle to return to highs within this cycle.
Once liquidity dries up, project teams vanish, market narratives collapse, and support levels are lost in an instant.
If you don't sell during the uptrend, you will only be forced to sell in panic, resulting in significant losses.
Technical indicators show the market is nearing its peak.
NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit and Loss) exceeds 0.75, indicating substantial profits for holders and pressure to take profits.
SOPR turning negative indicates that some are selling at a loss after the peak.
MVRVThe indicator is deep red, with market value far exceeding cost price, making it hard to sustain.
These indicators have accurately warned of every peak in past bull markets.
Pay attention to changes in BTC dominance and altcoin indices.
When BTC dominance falls and ETH strengthens, altcoin markets often enter a 'blow-off' phase.
When the altcoin index exceeds 65, it indicates extreme speculative sentiment; although it appears to be rising on the surface, it is highly risky.
The smartest capital will exit before the end of the hype.
My selling strategy: gradually reduce positions in phases.
Sell the highest-risk altcoins first, especially meme coins and projects with low liquidity.
Gradually exit large-cap coins like SOL, AVAX, and MATIC during the peak of capital rotation.
Finally, reduce positions in ETH and BTC in batches, converting to stablecoins or yield-bearing assets, aiming to complete by mid-October.
The expectation of a rate cut in September brings the final catalyst.
Expect a rate cut in September to inject liquidity, igniting the final wave of upward momentum.
But this rebound will be very quick, lasting only a few weeks, so it’s especially important to have an exit plan.
By the time you feel 'right,' it is often too late.
The biggest mistake is to wait until after a 'rebound' to sell.
Many traders mistakenly believe there will be a rebound after the first round of adjustments, only to see the declines gradually worsen, ultimately getting trapped for years.
I have made that mistake too; now I choose to sell when prices rise and exit when they fall.
Bear markets don't cool off slowly; they cool off instantly.
No need to liquidate all at once; selling in batches is more flexible.
The goal is to realize life-changing profits, not to chase an ungraspable peak.
If you've already made 20 times your investment, aiming for 22 times is actually gambling. It’s wiser to take profits in time.
Tops are often the craziest moments.
Record trading volume on exchanges, media's overwhelming optimistic reports, and prices continuously reaching new highs.
This is precisely when smart capital begins to cash out.
If you want to be the winner, you must prepare before October.
Once the music stops, the opportunity to find a seat is gone.
The current market remains strong, but peak signals are obvious. Historical patterns and technical indicators consistently point to an impending major correction.
Phased planning for exit and locking in profits is far more important than trying to catch the peak.
Don’t become the last bag holder; plan ahead to truly enjoy the fruits of investment success.