I have been trading cryptocurrencies for over 10 years. In the first three years, I suffered heavy losses and was in debt of 3 million. After self-adjustment, I have achieved financial freedom in the following seven years, with stable compound interest, a monthly income in the seven figures, and an annual income in the eight figures!

Success is by no means accidental. Every successful person has gone through numerous trials and has walked step by step. It cannot be denied that some people are born geniuses, but such people are few and far between, neither you nor I are among them. Most people gradually approach perfection after experiencing failures. It is precisely these experiences of failure that lead to insights unattainable through shortcuts.

A common saying is that there are no good opportunities. In fact, opportunities are reserved for those who are prepared. When opportunities arise, only then can one grasp them firmly. Waiting idly like waiting for a rabbit to come is futile. When opportunities truly appear, you either miss them or fail to grasp them.

Although it is said that bear markets do not signal a bottom and bull markets do not signal a top, many people seem to like trying to find answers to this question. Therefore, in the spirit of research, this issue's sharing will simply present 15 reference indicators for escaping the peak of Bitcoin.

The 1st indicator: Rainbow Price Chart Indicator

As a long-term valuation tool for Bitcoin, the rainbow chart indicator should be familiar to everyone, at least you've heard of it. This indicator uses a logarithmic growth curve to predict the potential price direction of Bitcoin in the future. It overlays a rainbow color band on top of the logarithmic growth curve channel to highlight the market sentiment at each rainbow color stage as Bitcoin's price moves. The recommended escape peak position can be chosen between the yellow and red areas. As shown in the figure below.

The second indicator: Terminal Price

Historically, this indicator has been quite effective in predicting the tops of Bitcoin price cycles. For example, during the bull market peak from November to December 2017, Bitcoin's price touched the red line, and again during the bull market peak from March to May 2021, Bitcoin's price once again touched the red line. According to this indicator, as long as we wait until Bitcoin's price approaches or touches the red line again, we can sell. The current red line's price is shown to be around $170,000. As shown in the figure below.

The 3rd indicator: Stock-to-Flow Model (S2F Model)

Over time, Bitcoin's price will change with its stock and circulation. When the price is above the S2F level, the divergence line changes from green to red. When the price is below the S2F line, the divergence line changes from red to green. From the current trend of this indicator, the first quarter of next year (2025) seems to be a favorable time for selling. As shown in the figure below.

The 4th indicator: Pi Cycle Top Indicator

This indicator uses 111DMA (i.e., 111-day moving average) and 350DMA x 2 (i.e., the multiple of the 350-day moving average) to identify the top of market cycles. Historically, during the past three bull market cycles, when 111DMA moves upward and crosses 350DMA x 2, we have seen it align with Bitcoin's price peak. Currently, the green line of this indicator (350DMA x 2) is $120,000, which means that Bitcoin may peak after breaking through $120,000 in this bull market. As shown in the figure below.

The 5th indicator: The Puell Multiple

This indicator highlights two important ranges for Bitcoin. When the Puell Multiple enters the green box area, it indicates a period of extremely low Bitcoin value. When the Puell Multiple enters the red box area, it indicates a period of extremely high Bitcoin value. We need to sell when the Puell Multiple approaches or enters the red area. However, considering the current market conditions, the suggestion here is to consider batch selling when this indicator again exceeds 2, and to escape the peak when it exceeds 3. As shown in the figure below.

The 6th indicator: Miner Revenue (Fees vs Rewards)

Historically, during previous bull markets, every time Bitcoin's price began to peak, the percentage of Fees would rise sharply because, with new participants entering the market and generating more transactions through the network, the demand for Bitcoin naturally increases during bull markets. According to the current indicator, when the percentage of Miner Fees exceeds 30%, it may be time to consider batch selling Bitcoin. As shown in the figure below.

The 7th indicator: MVRV Z-Score

This indicator is used to determine whether Bitcoin's value is undervalued or overvalued. Historically, since 2011, whenever the MVRV Z-score approaches or exceeds 7, it indicates that the market is entering a peak. As shown in the figure below.

The 8th indicator: Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL)

This indicator is used to assess the total paper profit/loss of Bitcoin held by investors. Historically, whenever this indicator approaches or reaches 75%, it may be time for you to consider escaping the peak. As shown in the figure below.

The 9th indicator: 2-Year MA Multiplier

This indicator uses a 2-year MA (moving average) and the multiplication of that moving average, namely 2-year MA x 5, to predict the price of Bitcoin. Historically, when Bitcoin's price approaches or exceeds 2-year MA x 5 (the red line in the chart), it indicates the best time to sell Bitcoin. As shown in the figure below.

The 10th indicator: 200 Week Moving Average Heatmap

This indicator uses a heatmap based on the growth rate of the 200-week moving average and assigns a color to the price chart based on the monthly growth percentage of the 200-week moving average. Historically, when we see orange or red dots on the price chart, it indicates that the market is overheated and it is the best time to sell Bitcoin for profit. As shown in the figure below.

The 11th indicator: The Golden Ratio Multiplier

This indicator uses the multiple of Bitcoin's price 350-day moving average (350DMA) to identify potential resistance areas for price fluctuations. From the current indicator, areas exceeding the green line and reaching the red line are relatively good intervals for batch selling. As shown in the figure below.

The 12th indicator: RHODL Ratio

This indicator uses the ratio of realized value HODL waves. When the orange line approaches or reaches the red band area, it indicates that the market is overheating, making it suitable for taking profits in batches. As shown in the figure below.

The 13th indicator: Coin Days Destroyed

This indicator shows when old, dormant Bitcoins suddenly wake up and return to the market. When long-term holders begin to move their holdings, it often indicates that they are about to sell for profit. Therefore, we often see a sharp rise in CDD before the market peaks. As shown in the figure below.

The 14th indicator: Bitcoin Bull Run Index (CBBI)

This indicator is a comprehensive data indicator that integrates 9 other indicators to help us understand the stage of the Bitcoin cycle. A higher score indicates a potential top for Bitcoin's explosive cycle. Based on the current data displayed by this indicator, when the value exceeds 80, we can start considering batch selling Bitcoin. As shown in the figure below.

The 15th indicator: Ahr999

This indicator was proposed by a Chinese netizen named Ahr999 in the (HODL Bitcoin) e-book. This Bitcoin accumulation expert has since exited the market, and all accounts with the same name online are not Ahr999 himself. The calculation formula for this indicator is = (Bitcoin price / 200-day investment cost) * (Bitcoin price / index growth valuation), where the index growth valuation is the fitting result of coin price and coin age.

This indicator is also known as the Bitcoin accumulation indicator and is relatively simple to use. When the index is below the green line (value of 1.2), it indicates entering the regular investment area. When the index is below the red line (value of 0.45), it indicates entering the bottom-buying area. Similarly, when the index exceeds the green line, it indicates a potential selling area. Currently, this indicator seems less suitable for guiding peak escape and is more appropriate for long-term regular investment reference. As shown in the figure below.

In addition to the indicators above, if you enjoy studying K-line charts, you can also consider combining weekly or monthly MACD, RSI, and other indicators for auxiliary reference. Moreover, all these cyclical indicators can not only assist in guiding sell (escape peak) operations during bull markets but are also applicable for seizing accumulation opportunities during bear markets.

In summary, there are still quite a few indicators for Bitcoin at present. Although we shared 15 indicators, the point here is not to use all of them, but to select a few that you believe are the most effective for long-term auxiliary reference.

No indicator is perfect, and when an indicator is focused on by everyone, it may no longer be a perfect indicator. What you need is to find new integration points from different indicators. In addition, we also need to keep up with the times, such as considering changes in policies regarding the cryptocurrency industry in various countries and global macroeconomic situations for comprehensive considerations and judgments.

At the same time, in this relatively long trading process, we also need to maintain enough patience and continuously improve our trading strategies and trading discipline.

Of course, it is important to remind you that all data indicators are based on historical data estimates or model calculations and should only be used as auxiliary references. Your trading operations should also be based on your own risk preferences and position management. Moreover, all the indicators we listed above are cyclical indicators, which are not very instructive for short-term operations.


In this process, lastly! I have distilled 10 golden rules, concise yet rich in wisdom.

If you intend to cultivate in the cryptocurrency space for a long time, this article will surely benefit you greatly, and you may feel enlightened after reading it!

1. The way to trade cryptocurrencies lies in selecting strong cryptocurrencies and closely following the upward trend. For cryptocurrencies in a downward trend, we choose to ignore them, as time is precious, and it is not advisable to engage with the main forces. If the cryptocurrency remains above the trend line, holding patiently is the best strategy. For instance, during the AI boom at the beginning of the year, as long as it does not break the 30-day moving average, we can hold with peace of mind. Once it breaks, exit decisively.

2. The main trend is the key. When the market is good, there must be a main line leading it. If the main line is weak or absent, it indicates that risks outweigh opportunities. At this time, it is advisable to observe changes calmly and wait for the main line to appear. Do not act rashly.

3. Diversify investments, including in cryptocurrency. Even if you are optimistic about a certain cryptocurrency, do not invest all your capital. Learn to diversify your investments; you should not hold more than four cryptocurrencies to spread the risk.

4. Frequent trading is not only unhelpful but also harmful to your finances. Avoid the urge to trade frequently; feeling uneasy without trading for a day can be detrimental. Frequent operations may bring temporary pleasure but will ultimately lead to significant losses, with brokers being the only beneficiaries. If you do not have the skill for short and frequent trading, do not attempt to become a market maker.

5. After a big loss, you need to rest; after a big gain, you need to be more cautious. After a significant loss, your mindset can be easily affected. You need to understand the psychology of revenge trading to avoid blindly attempting to recover losses, which is a gambler's mentality and should be avoided. After a big gain, emotions can run high, leading to a loss of caution, thus a large gain is often followed by a large loss. Stay alert at all times.

6. Diversified operations, stability is king. Even if you are optimistic about a certain cryptocurrency, do not make a heavy investment all at once. Even if it proves to be correct later, you should not act this way. The world is unpredictable, and no one can foresee tomorrow's events.

7. Do not overly focus on minute-by-minute charts. Retail investors should not stare at minute-by-minute charts all day; this not only is unhelpful but can also disrupt trading psychology. Trading in cryptocurrencies also requires a balance of work and rest; spending one hour reviewing trades daily is sufficient.

8. Think carefully before the market opens, it's better than acting on impulse during the market. In cryptocurrency trading, boldly hypothesize and cautiously verify. By reviewing after trading and planning before trading, clarify the market's hot direction and make predictions about trading. However, remember that prediction is not forecasting; blind forecasting replaces market choices with subjective views, which is a major taboo in trading.

9. Missing opportunities is better than losing money. In trading, opportunities will always come again. Rationally identify issues, neutralize them, and focus on successful outcomes rather than stress.

10. Improving trading skills and keeping a trading log is key. Record all relevant information and experiences related to trading. Without logs, valuable experiences will inevitably be lost, and repeating mistakes is unavoidable. A trading log is truly a tool for capital and risk management. Understanding the issues in trading is the key to solving problems. Therefore, make keeping a trading log one of your goals.


These are some of Yan An's thoughts and insights. If you find them helpful, please like and save them. I am Yan An, someone who has experienced three cycles of bull and bear markets, skilled in logical coin selection and technical timing. I only trade within my cognitive range, and every direction has been confirmed by the market!

Even the most diligent fisherman will not go out to sea fishing in stormy weather, but will carefully protect his fishing boat. This season will eventually pass, and a sunny day will come! Follow Yan An, and I will give you both fish and fishing skills. The door to the cryptocurrency world is always open. Only by following the trend can you have a life that flows with the tide. Save this and keep it in mind!