MicroStrategy (now renamed Strategy) did not increase its Bitcoin holdings between July 20 and 29, 2025, as a result of multiple intertwined factors, including the objective limitations of the funding arrival cycle, as well as proactive choices based on market conditions and strategic adjustments. The following analysis will be conducted from three dimensions: specific events, market dynamics, and company strategy.
1. Objective limitations of the funding arrival cycle
1. Time lag in preferred stock issuance
The company announced on July 25 that it would significantly increase the scale of its preferred stock issuance from $500 million to $2.521 billion, with an issuance price of $90 per share, expected to complete the settlement on July 29 and raise approximately $2.474 billion. Although this fundraising is clearly intended for increasing Bitcoin holdings, there is a certain time required for the funds to move from settlement to actual purchasing. As of July 29, the funds have not fully arrived, so there has been no new accumulation announcement. This rhythm aligns with its past 'financing → buying' operational model—such as the phased accumulation after raising funds through convertible bonds in June 2025.
2. Historical characteristics of accumulation phases
According to public data, MicroStrategy increased its holdings by 6,220 Bitcoins between July 14 and 20, with an average price of $118,940, bringing the total holdings to 607,770 coins. This was the last publicly recorded increase as of July 29. Afterward, founder Michael Saylor released information about the Bitcoin Tracker on July 20, suggesting a possible continued increase, but no further actions were observed in the market, speculated to be due to funding allocation or market volatility pauses.
2. Proactive response to market conditions
1. High volatility of Bitcoin prices
On July 29, the Bitcoin price reported at $119,001, a correction of about 3.2% from the historical high of $123,000 on July 14. Market concerns over the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision (on July 30) and the U.S. tariff deadline (on August 1) have intensified volatility. MicroStrategy may choose to wait for clearer market signals during the price correction period to avoid entering the market at short-term highs. Additionally, mainstream coins like Ethereum also corrected in tandem (ETH fell 2.5% to $3,816), reflecting cautious overall market sentiment.
2. Uncertainty of regulatory policies
The U.S. Congress advanced three major bills during 'Crypto Week' from July 14 to 18, but the stablecoin bill supported by Trump faced procedural voting defeat on July 16 (196:223), causing Bitcoin to drop more than 5% in a single day. Although the (GENIUS Act) and (CLARITY Act) were ultimately passed, refining the regulatory framework will still take time. MicroStrategy, as a benchmark enterprise for compliant accumulation, may adopt a wait-and-see attitude before policy implementation to avoid impacts on its holding strategy due to rule changes. Additionally, the upcoming cryptocurrency policy report from the White House on July 29 further complicates the expectations around policies.
3. Proactive adjustments to company strategy
1. Self-balancing of holding concentration
MicroStrategy's Bitcoin holdings account for 3.05% of the circulating supply (607,770 coins), and continued accumulation may face issues of insufficient market depth. For example, when it increased its holdings by 10,100 Bitcoins in June, the average price was about 2% above the market price. To avoid a 'market crash effect', the company may choose to slow down its accumulation pace and instead hedge risks using derivative instruments (such as futures).
2. Resource diversion from business diversification
Since its renaming to 'Strategy' in February 2025, the company has emphasized a dual-driving strategy of 'Bitcoin + AI'. Financial reports show that its AI + BI business saw a year-on-year revenue increase of 18% in Q1 2025, accounting for 37% of total revenue. Some funds may be diverted to AI research and development (such as the European cloud project in collaboration with STACKIT) or corporate client expansion, reducing dependence on Bitcoin as a single asset.
3. Priority of optimizing debt structure
MicroStrategy redeemed $1.05 billion of convertible bonds in January 2025 and plans to repay part of its maturing debt in Q3 2025. As of Q1, its debt-to-asset ratio was 62%, and the current ratio was 1.2, with rising cash flow management pressure potentially prompting it to delay aggressive buying and prioritize debt repayment ability. Additionally, the company plans to pay a preferred dividend of $1.24 per share on July 31, further diverting cash flow.
4. Future outlook and risk warning
1. Potential actions after funds are in place
If the $2.474 billion fundraising is successfully completed, Strategy may initiate a new round of Bitcoin purchases in August. Historical data shows that its single purchase size usually falls within the range of $500 million to $1 billion (e.g., spending $1.05 billion to increase holdings in June 2025). The market needs to pay attention to whether its buying rhythm resonates with Bitcoin price corrections (such as the $117,000 support level).
2. Catalysts of regulation and market sentiment
- Federal Reserve policy: If the July 30 monetary policy meeting releases dovish signals (such as hinting at a rate cut in September), it may boost demand for Bitcoin as an 'anti-inflation asset'.
- Tariff negotiations: If the results of the U.S.-EU and U.S.-China tariff negotiations (with an August 1 deadline) trigger market risk aversion, Bitcoin may attract inflows.
- Technical breakthrough: If Bitcoin stabilizes at $120,000 and breaks through the previous high of $123,000, it could trigger Strategy to accelerate its accumulation to replicate the positive cycle of 'buying low → asset appreciation → financing amplification'.
3. Risk warning
- Liquidity risk: If the Bitcoin price falls below the critical support level of $117,000 in August, it may trigger forced liquidations or a decline in collateral value.
- Policy risk: If the U.S. SEC expands the definition of 'security tokens', it may indirectly affect the inflow of funds into Bitcoin ETFs (e.g., a net inflow of $157 million into Bitcoin ETFs on July 29).
Conclusion
MicroStrategy's lack of Bitcoin accumulation in late July 2025 is essentially a comprehensive result of funding cycles, market volatility, regulatory gamesmanship, and strategic adjustments. Its preferred stock fundraising plan provides ammunition for future accumulation, but actual actions need to be judged based on market sentiment, regulatory progress, and company cash flow dynamics. For investors, a thorough analysis of its financing costs (current average holding price is approximately $71,756 per coin), changes in market depth, and progress in business diversification is key to assessing the sustainability of its Bitcoin strategy.$BTC
