$ETH Current price 3713.8, stuck between 3622 POC and the upper Bollinger band 3761; sell orders 2.25 times the buy orders, short positions dominate in the short term, but 8h contract net flow is back positive at 19.98k, suggesting the main force is still accumulating. Strategy: Pullback to 3664-3672 HVN for low long, stop loss at 3647, target 3740-3761; if it breaks below 3647, reverse short. Risk-reward ratio 2.4, position ≤1%, beware of weekend low liquidity flash crashes.
Key interval structure
• Value anchoring zone: POC 3622, with 10 dollars up and down trading 2.07 million ETH, temporarily balanced between bulls and bears.
• High trading volume area: 3664-3689, 3740-3757, two HVNs provide buffers; if it breaks below 3664, it will quickly slide to 3605.
• Low trading volume gap: The upper range 3761-3780 (LVN) is a vacuum area, a breakout can accelerate to 3808; the lower range 3647-3630 is also LVN, a breakdown will test 3605.
• 70% trading volume coverage area: 2929-3808, the current price is at the upper edge of 15%, not overbought but close to resistance.
Momentum verification
• 3664-3689 HVN: Up Volume 54%, balanced between bulls and bears; a ≥60% buying volume is required to confirm an effective pullback.
• 3740-3757 HVN: Down Volume 57%, selling pressure slightly dominant; if it breaks with volume, it is considered a false drop.
• Recent 1h trading volume is 29% lower than the average, waiting for volume direction to choose.
Auxiliary indicators
• Bollinger Bands: Price is within the 70% band, the upper band at 3761 is the short-term ceiling.
• MA200: 3660, deviation only 1.46%, trend neutral to bullish.
• Contract positions increased slightly by 0.29% in 1h, but the long-short ratio decreased by 0.94, mainly short positions increasing, need to observe if it induces short.
Market cycle
The medium-term is still in a high-level consolidation period after the third wave of the bull market; in the short term, it enters the 'selling pressure test' stage. If it holds 3664-3672, it is expected to challenge the previous high again; if it fails, it will transition to a consolidation between 3500-3600.
Trading strategy
1. Low long (conservative): Accumulate long in batches at 3664-3672, stop loss at 3647 (-0.5×ATR≈25), target 3740/3761, risk-reward ratio 2.4.
2. Breakout long (aggressive): 3761 LVN volume breakout (Up Volume >60%) pullback to 3750-3757 to chase long, stop loss at 3732, target 3808, risk-reward ratio 2.8.
3. Reverse short: 1h close <3647 and Down Volume >55%, short at 3645, stop loss at 3664, target 3605/3588, risk-reward ratio 2.1.
Risk warning
• Low liquidity over the weekend, high risk of extreme volatility;
• If macro news suddenly delays ETF or regulatory negative news, the strategy will be immediately invalidated;
• After losing key levels, decisive stop loss is needed to avoid averaging down.