The main decline of the cryptocurrency market on June 28–29, 2025, was caused by a combination of geopolitical tensions, macroeconomic factors, and technical signals. Here are the key reasons:
⚔️ 1. Geopolitical Escalation (US Strike on Iran)
On June 22, the US confirmed military strikes on Iran, provoking panic in the markets. By June 28, tensions escalated into massive sell-offs of risky assets, including cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin fell to $99,000 — the lowest since early May. This triggered $710 million in liquidations in one day, mainly of long positions in BTC and ETH.
💸 2. Liquidity Reduction and Outflow from ETFs
- Capital Outflow from Bitcoin ETFs: Since February 2025, there has been a persistent outflow of funds from American Bitcoin ETFs (for example, BlackRock IBIT — three weeks in a row), which deprived the market of institutional investor support. The cumulative outflow exceeded $2.5 billion.
- Increase in TGA Balances: The increase in the US Treasury's (TGA) balance from $623 billion to $800 billion reduced dollar liquidity, intensifying pressure on the crypto market.
📉 3. Technical Factors and Market Psychology
- Breaking Key Support: The drop of BTC below the psychologically important level of $100,000 triggered a chain reaction of stop-loss orders.
- Bearish Signals from Indicators: The downward reversal of the 14-week RSI index and on-chain analytics data (CryptoQuant, Glassnode) indicated weakening demand and accumulation.
🏛️ 4. Macroeconomic Uncertainty
- Actions of the Fed: Maintaining high interest rates due to the resilience of the US labor market reduced the attractiveness of cryptocurrencies as risky assets.
- Rising Bond Yields: The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds reached 4.79%, pulling capital into traditional instruments.
🗳️ 5. Disappointment in Trump's Policies 😎
Donald Trump's promise to create a strategic reserve of Bitcoins in the US was not implemented promptly. Instead of direct actions, his order from January 24, 2025, only initiated an 'assessment of feasibility,' undermining market confidence.
💎 Conclusion
The correction was the result of a synergy of external shocks (geopolitics, liquidity) and internal market weaknesses (technical indicators, ETF outflows). Experts from CryptoQuant and Pantera Capital noted that a drop to $75–78,000 could have become a zone of sustainable support, but breaking this level intensified the bearish trend. Long-term forecasts (e.g., from Bernstein of $200,000 by 2026) remained in force but depended on the stabilization of macro factors.
