UNI's V4 upgrade is fuel, whale accumulation is the spark, and the $8 battle has reached a critical point!
News aspect: Positive news is dense but beware of short-term selling pressure.
Core upgrade launched: Uniswap V4 went live in early June, introducing features like 'Hooks' smart contracts and dynamic fees, significantly improving capital efficiency and developer flexibility. On-chain data shows a surge in new projects based on V4, with developer activity increasing over 70% month-on-month, supporting long-term ecological value.
Whales are buying aggressively: In early June, two major whales collectively withdrew 1.06 million UNI from exchanges, with a sudden surge in large transaction volumes. On-chain analysts indicate that such behavior usually signals institutional optimism towards medium-term trends, but caution is needed for short-term profit-taking pressure.
Potential risks: The UNI supply on exchanges has recently increased by $10.2 million, and some large holders may take profit on the upgrade news. Meanwhile, the Bancor patent lawsuit remains unresolved, and a deterioration could impact market sentiment.
Technical aspect: Breakthrough is valid but needs to retrace for confirmation.
Key level contest: Current price of $7.9 is close to the 100-day moving average, 4-hour chart shows:
Strong support: $7.3
Breakthrough target: $9.2 → $10.34
Indicator signals:
MACD shows a golden cross above water but with a shrinking histogram, a top divergence appears on the 30-minute chart, indicating a need for short-term correction;
RSI is in the neutral zone of 58-65, Bollinger Bands are widening, volatility is rising but not overbought.
Operation summary: Defend at 8, attack at 7.
Aggressive approach: Current price $7.9, light long position, stop loss at $7.3, add position if it breaks $8.3 and aim for $9.2;
Conservative approach: If it stabilizes upon retracing to $7.5-$7.7, accumulate; if it breaks below $7.3, stop loss and wait.
Medium-term target: If V4 ecological data continues to improve, Q3 may reach $13.
Whales are already lurking, the upgrade is fermenting, is this pullback a trap or a golden pit?