When game promises turn into air
The token has become the last stick in the game of passing the parcel.
Today, when I opened my eyes, the circle exploded —
HMSTR plummeted 19% in a single day, hitting a historic low of $0.001039. Behind this wave of “hamster great escape” is the double strangulation of news and technical aspects. Let me explain it clearly!
News aspects:
Three “sickles” have shattered market confidence
Addicted to delays, the second quarter “dove into the earth's core”
The development team painted a big pie last year: the second season of the game was supposed to launch at the end of October, introducing new gameplay like hamsters starting studios. What happened? Players haven't seen a shadow, and the official only released a vague teaser, with no timeline mentioned. This 'wolf is coming' operation directly ignited a trust crisis — monthly active users plummeted from 100 million to 44 million, players voted with their feet.
Airdrop turned into “airstrike”, 60 billion tokens dumped
The project party crazily threw tokens to attract traffic: 60 billion HMSTR tokens (accounting for 60% of the total) entered the market through airdrops. Early players received tokens worth less than $10, humorously dubbed “dust rewards”. Retail investors received tokens and immediately sold them, with selling pressure like a flood breaking a dam. Worse, the project has no token destruction mechanism, and inflation pressure continues.
The competition in the track has intensified, Telegram games have collectively stalled
The entire Ton ecosystem is in a slump: the competitor Catizen (CATI) has dropped 71%, Notcoin (NOT) has dropped 78%. Meanwhile, HMSTR's user retention rate has collapsed — active users in Q1 2025 are less than 1 million, a loss of over 96% from the peak. Without players supporting it, the “gold farming game” is just a castle in the air.
Technical aspects:
The downtrend has formed a death spiral
K-line ghost stories: there is no lowest, only lower
HMSTR has been in a downtrend since last September's peak of $0.0072, accumulating a drop of over 67%. Recently, it has shown a “descending channel”: highs keep moving down, unable to hold the $0.0022 resistance level. On June 12, it dropped to a low of $0.001244, with liquidity nearly exhausted.
Volume reveals the truth: big players have already run away
On the day of the plunge, the transaction volume was only $20.89 million, less than 1/103 of its peak. The shrinking volume shows that the buyers have disappeared, and a few sell orders can break through the floor price. What's even more heart-wrenching is that institutions had already cashed out at high positions back in January — for example, DWF Labs withdrew $650,000 in a single day, leaving retail investors standing guard.
Technical indicators have all “crashed”
The weekly MACD death cross is widening, RSI has fallen to 23 (seriously oversold but no rebound). Fibonacci retracement shows that if it loses the $0.0012 level, the next target will be $0.000865 (another halving!).
Is HMSTR really hopeless? Not necessarily! The ambush point has emerged — the second airdrop is scheduled for summer 2025, and the team holds 15 billion tokens prepared to stimulate the second quarter. For those looking to catch a reversal opportunity