The prediction is a probability, the investment is an expectation, but don't forget the odds! ❤️
Prediction Probability: What is the probability that this investment "might earn"? You should have some expectation in mind first.
Investment Expectation: This combines the chances of winning and the possible returns, calculating whether it's "worth betting on average".
The most crucial thing is not to forget the odds, which is more important than the first two steps! That is, "if you win, how much can you earn, and if you lose, how much will you lose? Calculate whether this investment is really worth it?"
Just thinking about "possibly earning" is not enough; you also need to calculate the "probability of earning and whether it's worth taking this risk". It's like buying milk tea; just looking at "possibly tasty" (probability) and thinking "the taste is good" (expectation) is not enough. The key is to look at the price (odds) — for example, spending 30 bucks for a cup of "just for the expectation of possibly tasty", do you think it's worth it? Can you accept it if it's not tasty!
You need to think clearly about all three steps for the investment to be more solid. Don't forget, good opportunities not only depend on "being able to win", but also on "winning enough but losing limited"!
Prediction Probability: What is the probability that this investment "might earn"? You should have some expectation in mind first.
Investment Expectation: This combines the chances of winning and the possible returns, calculating whether it's "worth betting on average".
The most crucial thing is not to forget the odds, which is more important than the first two steps! That is, "if you win, how much can you earn, and if you lose, how much will you lose? Calculate whether this investment is really worth it?"
Just thinking about "possibly earning" is not enough; you also need to calculate the "probability of earning and whether it's worth taking this risk". It's like buying milk tea; just looking at "possibly tasty" (probability) and thinking "the taste is good" (expectation) is not enough. The key is to look at the price (odds) — for example, spending 30 bucks for a cup of "just for the expectation of possibly tasty", do you think it's worth it? Can you accept it if it's not tasty!
You need to think clearly about all three steps for the investment to be more solid. Don't forget, good opportunities not only depend on "being able to win", but also on "winning enough but losing limited"!
