The market will next focus on the June Fed dot plot and whether the tariff policy in July will be paused or intensified.

Whether Trump can reach an agreement with Fed Chairman Powell is also crucial. If he wants Powell to cut interest rates, he either has to crash the economy directly or compromise on tariffs. Currently, the 10-year Treasury yield has also exceeded 4.5%, and Trump is probably feeling the heat. To make matters worse, Moody's suddenly downgraded the U.S. credit rating, which was a heavy blow for him. During the Obama and Biden administrations, there were also downgrades, but they could always shift the blame to the Democrats. This time, the market clearly feels that Trump is a bit out of control, so Moody's took action.

The day before yesterday, Treasury Secretary Basent confidently stated that GDP growth could exceed the debt growth rate, and tariffs could fill the treasury, but the market seems unconvinced. The current market is like dancing on stilts, worrying about a rating collapse while pretending that everything is stable. Next, we will see what new tricks Trump can come up with...

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