A recent negotiation that did not attract much attention suddenly ignited enthusiasm in global markets.
Sino-U.S. closed-door talks in Geneva about tariffs went 'unexpectedly smoothly', and both sides stated that they reached a consensus and will issue a joint statement tonight.
As soon as this news broke, global capital markets surged, U.S. stocks, Hong Kong stocks, Chinese concept stocks, RMB, oil... almost all assets are rising.
But the most crucial thing is - the crypto sector will also be completely ignited.
An undervalued meeting released a super bullish signal
This is the first face-to-face high-level in-depth consultation between China and the U.S. since the Trump era. In the current context of global economic turmoil, its significance far exceeds that of a negotiation itself.
Core exposure of the negotiations:
China's five bottom lines:
1) Firmly demand the cancellation of all new tariffs and reject using political issues as bargaining chips;
2) Exports of key resources like rare earths and minerals must be decided autonomously by China;
3) National technological autonomy and industrial subsidies cannot be shaken;
4) Adhere to WTO rules and refuse the U.S. to create a 'small circle' unilateral mechanism;
5) RMB exchange rate and financial opening rhythm will be determined by China.
The U.S. focuses on 'pressure for concessions':
1) Proposed to reduce the punitive tariffs from 145% to 80% or even 34%;
2) Request China to cooperate on trade balance and fentanyl issues;
3) Insist on not canceling tariffs before negotiations, continue to maintain pressure;
4) Emphasize the 'reciprocal tariff' principle, striving to reduce U.S. trade deficit.
The negotiation process lasted three days and nights, from tense standoffs to gradual easing. On May 12, the officials finally announced -
"Substantial progress will establish a long-term trade dialogue mechanism led by senior officials from China and the U.S."
Although the details have not been fully disclosed, the market has already voted with its feet:
Global markets are all in the green, is the crypto sector ready to take off?
U.S. stocks: The three major indices' futures all rose
Nasdaq futures rose by 1.5%
S&P 500 rose by 1.4%
Dow futures rose by 1.2%
Hong Kong stocks: Technology stocks ignite the market
The Hang Seng Index surged by 1.74% to 22,500 points last Friday
The Hang Seng Tech Index surged by 3.08%
Triple long China ETF (YINN) once surged by 10%
A-shares: Technology stocks lead the rise, AI track is the strongest
Sectors like semiconductors and AI computing power performed brilliantly
Offshore RMB surged 600 basis points to 7.211, reflecting accelerated capital inflow
Gold falls, oil rises
Risk aversion sentiment recedes, gold corrected by 1.2%
Economic expectations heat up, oil rises
Will the crypto sector miss this wave of celebration?
The answer is clear: No, and it will be at the forefront.
Why?
1; Sino-U.S. easing = Risk appetite returns significantly
The crypto sector has always been the market that benefits the most from 'emotional fluctuations'. The warming of Sino-U.S. relations directly strikes the expectation of 'global division', and capital naturally tends to flow into volatile, high-return assets.
The risk-reward ratio in the crypto sector is exactly the type that capital loves most.
2; RMB appreciation = signal of liquidity release in Asia
The surge of offshore RMB means that international capital expects RMB assets to strengthen. If subsequent policies are marginally relaxed and more outbound channels are available -
USDT premium rises + BTC trading activity = Bull market warm-up has begun.
3; Technology themes explode, Web3 and AI naturally benefit
A-shares and Hong Kong stocks' technology sector surged, indicating that the market has begun to reassess the 'new technology logic'.
The Web3, AI + blockchain, and L2 crypto sectors inherently possess high narrative tension. Once the topic heats up, capital naturally rushes in.
Most importantly: Expectations for a Fed rate cut in June are strengthening!
Another significant impact of the Sino-US agreement is that expectations for global inflation alleviation are heating up, and the Fed's interest rate hike cycle may end.
1) The latest non-farm and CPI data are both weak;
2) Powell's tone begins to soften;
3) The market has begun to significantly raise the probability of a rate cut in June.
Once the Fed cuts rates in June, BTC may likely surge before the news settles.
What should the crypto sector focus on next?
BTC: Aiming for new highs, the key is to stabilize above 100,000 USD
1) The current fluctuation and consolidation is to accumulate strength. As long as it breaks the previous high, it is highly likely to directly hit 120,000 to 150,000 USD.
The thematic sectors are fully rotating:
AI sector: WLD, FET, RNDR, etc.;
Inscriptions ecosystem: ORDI, SATS, RATS, etc.;
Meme leaders: PEPE, WIF, FLOKI, etc.;
Layer 2 direction: MNT, TNSR, OP, ARB;
A possible revaluation of platform tokens is coming:
Top platform tokens like BNB, OKB, and TON are expected to become 'safe yet flexible' choices.
In conclusion: This could be the starting point of the next bull market
Sino-U.S. talks went surprisingly smoothly, global market risk appetite increased, and Fed expectations shifted... all factors are simultaneously resonating positively for the crypto sector.
In every major bull market in the past, the market always hesitated:
In 2017, everyone said BTC was just a bubble;
In 2020, DeFi was said to be just a niche experiment;
In 2025, will we still be watching?
The market won't wait for anyone; the bull market has never started when you're ready.
Brothers, if this door opens in June -
Then we might already be at the door of the bull market.