What is Token Unlock?
Token unlock is the process of releasing a certain amount of tokens from a locked state (vesting) to circulate in the market.
This process is carried out according to a specific roadmap that was designed when the project launched, often referred to as a 'vesting schedule.'
Locked tokens may belong to:
Development team
Venture capitalists (VCs)
Advisors
Community rewards
Ecosystem development fund...
The initial token locking is a measure to control supply, create price stability in the early stages, and prevent situations where whales sell off to make quick profits.
The purpose of the initial token lock
Avoid early “dump” prices from investors.
Build trust within the community regarding the project's long-term commitments.
Ensure transparent token distribution according to each development phase.
Why does token unlock have such a strong impact on cryptocurrency prices?
Token unlock affects market prices because it changes the supply and demand of a specific token.
When a large amount of tokens is released at once, early investors or the team can sell to take profits, creating significant selling pressure. This can lead to a sharp price drop if there isn't enough buying power to absorb it.
Key factors causing price fluctuations around the unlock time
There are 3 main factors you need to pay attention to:
Market sentiment: Investors often sell ahead of the news when they know an unlock is about to occur. Fear of being dumped leads them to proactively exit, creating downward pressure.
Large unlock amounts: If the amount of unlocked tokens constitutes a high proportion of the total circulating supply, the impact will be stronger. Projects with unreasonable tokenomics can easily lead to price collapse.
Recipients of the token: If most unlocked tokens fall into the hands of the project team, advisors, or early investors (who have large profits), the likelihood of selling for profit is high. Conversely, if the tokens are for the community (like airdrops or staking rewards), the reaction may be more positive.
Real-world examples of Token Unlock
Official Trump (TRUMP)
On April 18, 2025, the price of TRUMP coin fluctuated from $7.77 to $8.63, with a trading volume of about $736 million. The unlocking event of 40 million TRUMP tokens on that day accounted for about 20% of the circulating supply, causing concerns about selling pressure and its impact on the value of this coin.
However, later, the price of TRUMP recovered strongly. On April 24, 2025, the price of TRUMP coin increased by more than 60% after the announcement that the 220 largest TRUMP holders would be invited to a private dinner with President Trump.
Aptos (APT)
Unlike the case of TRUMP - where the price increased due to a related event - the price of APT was not affected by any positive news.
All three unlocks occurred in a similar pattern:
A few days before the unlock, the price was at a local bottom and began to see short liquidations - a sign of preparation for a rise.
Right after that, the price began to gradually increase and peaked exactly at the unlock time, creating a false positive feeling for the market.
However, by the third unlock, this scenario was interrupted due to Bitcoin's sharp decline after the ETF approval news, leading APT's price to also plummet following BTC.
If there are no fluctuations from the overall market, it is likely that APT will repeat the pattern of rising before - dumping later as in the previous two times.
How to track Token Unlock
To avoid being surprised by sudden price drops, you need to know the unlock schedule of the projects you are holding. Below are the most reputable tools for tracking:
Tokenomist
User-friendly interface. Provides details of each unlock: Quantity, percentage, recipient group, specific schedule. Can be categorized by weekly, monthly, or upcoming large unlocks.
DeFiLlama
A summary table of projects with upcoming vesting tokens. Can filter by date, number of unlocks, project name.
Track directly from the project (X, Discord, Medium)
Most projects will announce before the unlock time. Some projects even hold AMAs to explain the unlocking plan to reassure investors.
Is token unlock an opportunity or a risk?
Not every token unlock causes a price drop.
Do not equate every token unlock with a signal for price decline. Track the unlock schedule early but do not make decisions solely based on it. You should analyze more deeply:
Who will receive the tokens (team, investors, community?)
Do they have the motive to sell?
Is there any accompanying news?
Stay alert and use token unlock tracking tools like Tokenomist, CryptoRank,... combined with technical analysis and news to make smart investment decisions.
Wishing you success, especially traders relying on token unlocks for trading.