Recent Possible Situations:
First, let's talk about Bitcoin. There is a possibility, although relatively small, that Bitcoin could directly start a large-scale rally. But even if this situation occurs, the highest it could reach is not expected to be particularly high. Why? You see, it hasn't accumulated enough chips, and the adjustment time is short, just like a person running without proper warm-up, lacking energy. Moreover, the current situation in the US stock market isn't great, it's a bit in limbo, making it difficult to create an environment where everyone is willing to take risks (risk-on), so it can't provide strong support for Bitcoin's large-scale rise.
Another possibility is relatively more reliable. If Bitcoin enters a consolidation phase next, and then has a second bottom test, but the price stabilizes and does not break below the 83,000-level platform, it could accumulate strong upward momentum, potentially rising high and far.
From a timing perspective, in early May, tariff issues may need to be revisited, and with the US stock market entering earnings season, many companies might lower their future earnings expectations (forward EPS). This could lead to a significant decline in the US stock market. If Bitcoin falls along with the US stocks and hovers around 85,000, it might present a good buying opportunity on a pullback. However, this requires the premise that Bitcoin indeed falls with the US stocks.
As we gradually reach June to July, Trump will start implementing the second phase of the "deregulation + domestic tax cuts" policy. Once this policy is introduced, in the third quarter, risk assets denominated in dollars may show a trend of strengthening. This would be a significant positive for Bitcoin and could strongly promote the start of a major rally.
First, let's talk about Bitcoin. There is a possibility, although relatively small, that Bitcoin could directly start a large-scale rally. But even if this situation occurs, the highest it could reach is not expected to be particularly high. Why? You see, it hasn't accumulated enough chips, and the adjustment time is short, just like a person running without proper warm-up, lacking energy. Moreover, the current situation in the US stock market isn't great, it's a bit in limbo, making it difficult to create an environment where everyone is willing to take risks (risk-on), so it can't provide strong support for Bitcoin's large-scale rise.
Another possibility is relatively more reliable. If Bitcoin enters a consolidation phase next, and then has a second bottom test, but the price stabilizes and does not break below the 83,000-level platform, it could accumulate strong upward momentum, potentially rising high and far.
From a timing perspective, in early May, tariff issues may need to be revisited, and with the US stock market entering earnings season, many companies might lower their future earnings expectations (forward EPS). This could lead to a significant decline in the US stock market. If Bitcoin falls along with the US stocks and hovers around 85,000, it might present a good buying opportunity on a pullback. However, this requires the premise that Bitcoin indeed falls with the US stocks.
As we gradually reach June to July, Trump will start implementing the second phase of the "deregulation + domestic tax cuts" policy. Once this policy is introduced, in the third quarter, risk assets denominated in dollars may show a trend of strengthening. This would be a significant positive for Bitcoin and could strongly promote the start of a major rally.