Author: hitesh.eth

Translation: Tim, PANews

In early 2017, when I began to understand the true potential of Bitcoin, that shock felt like discovering a new spark in the digital age. This is not a new alternative asset, but a completely new paradigm, a technology that redefines money.

Chandler Guo Explains How Bitcoin Can Reach Beyond $10,000 or Even $1 M https://t.co/BqSw4GkQHt pic.twitter.com/xy1Z1bHLr2

— hitesh.eth (@hmalviya9) November 15, 2016

A decentralized system free from arbitrary interference by governments and central banks, offering financial autonomy to anyone willing to participate. It is not just an investment behavior but a financial revolution. I hope everyone around me can understand what I see.

I prepared a long message and sent it to 100 people via WhatsApp, suggesting everyone buy Bitcoin, while also recommending a consulting service that could help them increase their Bitcoin holdings. Although I had achieved some preliminary success in altcoin investments at that time, thinking it wasn't difficult to double everyone's Bitcoin assets within a few months. But at that time, my understanding of the market was still in its infancy, and I failed to fully grasp how narrative logic and emotional changes in this young market drove price trends.

Based on the limited available data at that time, I gradually formed my understanding of the market. Most altcoins launched between 2015 and 2017 lacked historical trading cycles to draw from. Their price charts exhibited a seemingly perpetual upward trend, with small pullbacks appearing like a 'pause button' before starting a new round of increases.

This model is intoxicating: buy, hold, wait, and then watch the value of your holdings continuously rise. The 'design' concept of the cryptocurrency market seems to be one of only rising, and this idea quietly took root in my mind. The market volatility at that time did not scare me; I thought it was just part of the necessary experience.

Theoretically, I once firmly believed I could calmly cope with market pullbacks, but the first major adjustment in the second quarter of 2017 shattered this illusion. This was not just a simple pullback, but a crash. The tokens that performed well in the first quarter hit new lows, with declines reaching 70% to 80%, and our beliefs collapsed instantly.

As I watched the value of my holdings diminish, excitement turned into panic, and optimism shifted to doubt. But I continued to hold on, firmly believing this was just the torment before the next rise. However, later I did not double my Bitcoin position; instead, I reduced it by 70% to 80%, returning to the initial starting point.

Market uncertainty follows closely. Bitcoin surged from $10,000 to $20,000, while altcoins struggled to recover. The market sentiment around Bitcoin is chaotic; today it is hailed as the future of currency, and tomorrow the media will be flooded with overwhelming 'death' reports: Chinese bans, regulatory crackdowns, hacker attacks. Every piece of negative news stirs up turbulent waves in the market. My initial firm belief began to waver. Are we really on the brink of a financial revolution? Or is this just another speculative bubble destined to burst?

Until January 2018, then the time came in January 2018, the month that completely refreshed my understanding of the market. Altcoins not only rebounded but also experienced explosive growth. TRX multiplied 100 times in just a few weeks, and countless projects that were previously criticized made a strong comeback, some surging tenfold, others even more. The market fell into a frenzy, and everyone felt like an investment genius.

The anxiety of the past few months dissipated with the emergence of a green bullish candle. In that moment, a new understanding formed in my heart: perhaps this is the rule of market operation. After experiencing a catastrophic pullback, its return will be even more intense.

This belief was veiled with a layer of deceptive mist before us. We tried to convince ourselves with the 'new normal': we all convinced ourselves this is the new normal, believing that every crash is just a prelude to the next surge. We waited for the return of the 'green months,' firmly believing that patience will eventually be rewarded. But so far, none of this has ever come. The market continues to bleed; what was once an exciting capital game gradually evolved into a slow and painful reality: it turns out we have long been trapped by our own high expectations. This cycle has played with us.

Every cycle features moments of extreme euphoria; in the previous cycle, we saw the same thing happen in the NFT space. Certain NFT series surged 100 times in a short period, and this 'crazy 30 days' occurred three times in a row. It felt like 2018. Hype, the firm belief that 'this is just the beginning,' FOMO, everything is astonishingly similar. When the market continued to rise after experiencing two pullbacks, we thought, 'This might be how the market operates,' and chose to HODL. However, the ending played out again: we lost everything. My losses in NFTs were heavy, as usual.

People often say 'once bitten, twice shy,' but the market always finds a way to make you forget. Your mind will deceive you, making you believe this time is really different. 'I now know how this game works, and I won't make the same mistakes again.' But the invisible traps always exist. The illusion of thinking you have control and have cracked the wealth code keeps you participating in the market for too long. In the end, the market is the winner. Over time, you may learn to minimize losses, but the outcome will certainly be a loss.

Recently, we witnessed history repeating itself once again. This time it's the AI Agent track. Shortly after the public offering, it skyrocketed 100 times, and ICOs seemed to be making a sudden comeback. Everything felt like a replay of yesterday, only with a new facade. We believed once again that this cycle of frenzy might last for weeks or even months.

We continuously make mistakes, constantly trip, we know what we are doing, but we cannot stop it all from happening. In fact, we can't control our emotions.

Perhaps now you are emotionally thinking that everything is over, and only a few coins will rebound. But the market always acts contrary to expectations, and this time it will still repeat its old tricks. You may be forced to sit at the table or exit, and in my view, this is the fate that most retail investors are destined to face right now.

The only way to win in this capital game is to maximize gains when you sit at the table and minimize losses when you exit. Of course, it's easier said than done.

(The above content is excerpted and reprinted with permission from partner PANews, original link)

Disclaimer: The article only represents the author's personal views and opinions and does not represent Block客's views and positions. All content and opinions are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Investors should make their own decisions and trades, and the author and Block客 will not bear any responsibility for any direct or indirect losses resulting from investors' trades.

"The 'Cycle Curse' of the Cryptocurrency Market: Knowing the bubble will burst, why do we keep losing everything?" This article was first published on (Block客).