According to CryptoQuant's CEO, Ki Young Ju, Bitcoin's bull cycle has ended and the market may witness 6 to 12 months of downward or sideways movement. Ju points out on-chain metrics indicating a trend change. "Every on-chain metric signals a bear market," he said, explaining that liquidity is drying up and new whales are dumping Bitcoin at lower prices.

He added that on-chain indicators such as Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV), Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), and Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) - analyzing market valuation, investor profitability, and overall sentiment - are showing key inflection points based on the 365-day moving average trend.

BTC faces crucial support at $82K–$85K as the upward momentum slows

Bitcoin was last traded at around $83,156, marking a nearly 15% decline over the past month. After peaking at $100,000 at the end of 2024, Bitcoin is currently in a classic post-bull consolidation phase, testing key support levels in the range of $82,000 to $85,000.

While institutional buying and speculation around the potential U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve has brought some optimism, the resistance between $85,000 and $90,000 could make the next upward move difficult. A breakout will not be easy, and traders are closely monitoring whether Bitcoin's recent rally can be sustained long-term.

BTC faces a significant challenge as bearish indicators strengthen

According to Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget Research, macro conditions remain a significant unknown. Any unexpected changes in Federal Reserve (FOMC) policy could shake the market. If sentiment turns bearish, Bitcoin could drop to the $75,000–$80,000 range, although a bullish macro backdrop could push it back to $90,000.

Meanwhile, market commentator and cryptocurrency skeptic Peter Schiff has issued his own warning, suggesting that Bitcoin could face even larger losses if the broader market crashes.

"NASDAQ is down 12%", Schiff noted on X. "If this correction turns into a bear market and the correlation between NASDAQ's 12% drop corresponds to a 24% drop in Bitcoin remains, when NASDAQ drops 20%, Bitcoin will be around $65,000."

With technical indicators turning bearish, Bitcoin will face a significant challenge in the coming months. If macro conditions remain stable, the market may stabilize near current support levels. However, if institutional sentiment weakens or NASDAQ extends its decline, Bitcoin's correction could be deeper, bringing the $65,000–$75,000 range into focus.