3.16.BTC.ETH. Afternoon Thought Sharing

Next week will usher in a critically important decision, the significance of which is self-evident. Before that, we are waiting for one last 86; if we miss this opportunity, the situation may become very dangerous. Next week is destined to be full of changes and will be filled with many uncertainties. It is even possible that the real bottom of this round will be born during this period. One important reason for all of this is the relevant measures taken by old Trump. What he is doing is largely forcing Powell to accelerate the rate-cutting process or to end the quantitative tightening (QT) policy early. Therefore, this Thursday's Federal Reserve interest rate decision is undoubtedly the top priority.

In my opinion, it is highly likely that we will first test the bottom before Thursday, followed by a period of sustained fluctuations. Take the U.S. stock market as an example; it is currently in the stage of artificially eliminating bubbles. Although many stocks still contain a significant bubble component, the overall process of de-bubbling is advancing. From a data perspective, the PPI data has performed relatively well, indicating that inflation has eased to a certain extent from the production side. However, a new problem has emerged. Once the tariff policy begins to be implemented, the impact of import tariffs should not be underestimated; it is expected that the inflation level may continue to rise as a result, and this trend is likely to last for at least three months.

Let's shift our focus back to tomorrow, which is the end of the week. If the weekly closing price is below 8.3, then for next week, we need to prepare for the psychological expectation of a slight continuation in the gap. At this time, it is necessary to comprehensively judge the trend of the big cycle's gap through the upper and lower edges of the closing price, after all, implementing strategies within the range is still applicable. Currently, Bitcoin is still within a short-term range. It has not been able to test the high point near 860, nor has it tested the low near 827, which makes the performance somewhat unusual. Considering the weekend market lacks liquidity, the risk is relatively high, so tonight, if Bitcoin approaches around 827, it might be a gap strategy. It can still be gapped near 860. If it really cannot reach 860 later, then it is likely to head downhill.

As for Ethereum, it has been performing particularly weakly recently. Currently, the range around 1840 for the gap seems relatively reasonable, while around 1940 for the gap. However, can 1940 break through again in the short term? Further observation is still needed.