Time: March 15, 2025, 10:50 AM, Saturday, Lunar Year of the Snake, 16th of the second month
Current price: 84,400 (last night's highest 85,270, exciting!)
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Part 1: Market maker strategy review - False breakout or real entrapment?
Last night at 23:30, BTC surged to 85,270, more enthusiastic than my pursuit of a goddess! What happened? Couldn't hold 85,000, directly retreated to 84,400, the market maker played this 'false breakout' more skillfully than a scumbag breaking up!
- Technical analysis现场:
1. Daily four-wave rebound: This rise resembles the 'four-wave light reflection', according to Elliott Wave Theory, the five-wave crash script is already in place!
2. Upper pressure welded shut: 85,000 is the upper edge of the box, 86,500 is the 'tombstone line' position for the 2024 bull market, rushing once buries a batch.
3. Indicator slap in the face: 4-hour RSI top divergence, MACD red bars shrinking to toothpicks, market makers clearly state 'Raise the price just to blow up the longs'!
Part 2: Bull and bear life-and-death struggle - Five-wave crash vs. violent rally
Script A: Five-wave crash, seeing 72,000!
- Technical logic: Four-wave rebound ends, five-wave drop target 75,000 (Fibonacci 78.6% retracement level), in extreme cases, it could drop to 72,000 (miners collectively jump from rooftops).
- News Update: The Federal Reserve says 'May rate hike to curb inflation', Trump's crypto bill stuck in Congress, retail investors' confidence leaks more than diapers.
Script B: Violent rally, taking off at 90,000!
- Forced breakout conditions: Stand firm at 86,500, trigger weekly FOMO (fear of missing out), target shooting straight to 91,000-93,000!
- Mystical Assistance: Binance perpetual long-short ratio 0.6, short sellers are being squeezed, and the market maker only needs one bullish candle!
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Part 3: Retail investors' obscure development guide
1. Long buyers:
- Bottom buying level: Place orders at 82,000-82,700, with a stop loss at 81,500 (delete the app immediately if it drops);
- Breakout chasing: Stand firm at 86,500 to add positions, target 90,000, but remember - market makers' rallies are like love, they come quickly and run faster!
2. Short sellers:
- Current price 84,400 lightly short, stop loss 86,500 (market makers love to trigger stop losses), take profit first look at 78,000, add to short if it drops below 75,000!
3. Zen party:
Delete exchange app, silently say: 'Look at K-lines more, eat less, listen to news less, move bricks more!'
(Dog head protection, investment advice: Be cautious to live longer, be stubborn to the rooftop!)$BTC
