The big one is coming
Currently, the market generally believes that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in July. However, I think the Federal Reserve may first release signals that "there will definitely be a rate cut this year" to诱导 the EU and Canada to cut interest rates in June ahead of time.
Phase Two: The Federal Reserve's "face change" and the strengthening of the dollar
After June, if U.S. inflation remains high while the economic fundamentals are still good, the Federal Reserve may change its stance, saying "there may only be one rate cut at the end of the year, or even no rate cut at all." At the same time, the Federal Reserve will stop reducing its balance sheet to support the U.S. Treasury market.
Phase Three: Geopolitical crisis and capital flow
If the situation in Ukraine worsens due to delays in military aid, the Russian army may launch a large-scale offensive in the summer, quickly advancing the front lines. Europe will thus fall into panic, and capital will begin to flee on a large scale, flowing into dollar assets as a "safe haven."
#乌俄停火
Cryptocurrency strategies, leave a message + follow for more information.
Currently, the market generally believes that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in July. However, I think the Federal Reserve may first release signals that "there will definitely be a rate cut this year" to诱导 the EU and Canada to cut interest rates in June ahead of time.
Phase Two: The Federal Reserve's "face change" and the strengthening of the dollar
After June, if U.S. inflation remains high while the economic fundamentals are still good, the Federal Reserve may change its stance, saying "there may only be one rate cut at the end of the year, or even no rate cut at all." At the same time, the Federal Reserve will stop reducing its balance sheet to support the U.S. Treasury market.
Phase Three: Geopolitical crisis and capital flow
If the situation in Ukraine worsens due to delays in military aid, the Russian army may launch a large-scale offensive in the summer, quickly advancing the front lines. Europe will thus fall into panic, and capital will begin to flee on a large scale, flowing into dollar assets as a "safe haven."
#乌俄停火
Cryptocurrency strategies, leave a message + follow for more information.
