In the early morning, Ukraine agreed to the U.S. proposal for a 30-day ceasefire and is preparing to sign a mineral agreement. The U.S. and Canada have also made concessions on tariffs. These good news have stimulated the market, causing both U.S. stocks and Bitcoin to rise. The cryptocurrency market finally welcomed a breather, with Bitcoin once returning to the 83,700 USD level, but the upward momentum ultimately proved weak, and it is currently hovering around 82,000 USD.

Moreover, the current market sentiment is still in a state of panic, with overall funds flowing out, and the market remains sluggish. Attention should be paid to tonight's U.S. CPI data, as this could be a rare opportunity to cut losses. As for whether it meets market expectations, just wait patiently while also keeping an eye on the trends in U.S. stocks in the coming days to see if they can stop falling.

Should we 'get off the bus to avoid risks' or 'enter the market at a low price'?

In the cryptocurrency market, short-term fluctuations are severe, and information noise is rampant, making it easy for investors to lose direction. Especially during the correction phase, it is crucial to think calmly, pulling attention away from the immediate price fluctuations and focusing instead on the broader 'trends' and 'cycles'.

The long-term trend of Bitcoin is shaped by macro factors such as technological innovation, global adoption, institutional entry, and policy evolution. Once this trend is formed, it is like a river flowing endlessly; even if the road ahead is winding, it is difficult to change its ultimate direction towards the sea.

The short-term cycle is influenced by factors such as market sentiment, macroeconomics, unexpected events, and capital flows, much like the waves in a river. Although grand, they are merely transient phenomena within the long river of trends. The alternating bull and bear markets in Bitcoin, as well as price fluctuations, all fall within the scope of cycles.

Therefore, in the face of the current market fluctuations, investors need to distinguish between 'trends' and 'cycles' to make wise choices between 'risk avoidance' and 'bottom fishing.'

Tonight, the U.S. will release the CPI price data. If it's lower than last time, market sentiment will be more upbeat, and prices may continue to rise. However, it's essential to keep an eye on news from the U.S., especially regarding tariffs and the Russia-Ukraine situation, as well as whether Trump will pull a surprise attack. As long as these factors don't stir up trouble, prices should stabilize.

Currently, based on the FOMC rate probability, a rate cut in March is definitely unlikely. The probability of a rate cut in May is 45%, and in June, it is 93%. If this week's CPI data is favorable and the U.S. government can continue funding on March 15, the probability of a rate cut in May will continue to rise. Personally, I hope for 2.9 so that the market can rebound a few thousand points, as it has recently dropped too sharply and needs a rebound to ease the market's downward sentiment.

In addition, pay attention to tomorrow's PPI and the Federal Reserve meeting on March 20. There will be no interest rate cuts in March, and the key is to watch Powell's speech.

1. How many times are interest rates planned to be cut this year?

2. Will they slow down or even stop the reduction of the balance sheet?

3. Views on Trump's tariff policy.

If he says there will be at least 2 rate cuts this year and a slowdown in the reduction of the balance sheet, Bitcoin could rise. However, we must avoid comments like 'feeling a recession is coming, so we need to cut rates more'—in other words, the more dovish the Fed's stance, the better it is for the market. But we must also keep a close watch on Trump's actions regarding tariffs!

As for what to do right now, many cryptocurrencies are mainly fluctuating. They rise a bit and then immediately drop, possibly waiting for tonight's CPI data. Those who prefer stability can wait until the data is released tonight before making any moves.