The market is showing consistent bearishness

币姥爷 · 2025-03-10T09:29:46.000Z

February 10, 2025 The market is further dipping; let’s first take a look at Bitcoin and Ethereum. They are actually still holding onto an important support line, with BTC at 75,000 to 80,000, this previous high point, and Ethereum at 2,000, which has been tested multiple times over the past year but has never dropped below. For the current phase of the market, these two points are a dividing line, even a lifeline; if they break down effectively, the bottom of the market below cannot be predicted, conversely, if they hold, it marks the starting point for the second half of the year. Everyone knows deep down that no one can be certain whether it will break down, but the choice made at this moment will greatly influence your returns.

March 10, 2025
The market is further probing down; let’s first look at Bitcoin and Ethereum. In fact, they are still holding an important support line, with BTC at 75,000-80,000, this previous high point, and Ethereum at 2000 points, which it has hit multiple times in the past year but has not broken below. For this phase of the market, these two points are a watershed, or even a lifeline; an effective breakdown would make the lower end of the market unpredictable, while holding above them would signify a starting point for the second half of the year. Everyone knows that no one can be certain whether it will break down, but the choice made at this moment will greatly affect your returns.
Based on market sentiment and some similar situations in the past, I would blindly guess that there will be a brief drop followed by a recovery, which is known as a 'false breakdown.' If this is indeed the script, then Bitcoin will hit a low near 70,000, and Ethereum will drop to 1,800-1,900, followed by a recovery that initiates a bull market. Although the current support is evident, due to the extreme lack of liquidity in the market, as soon as someone can't hold on and sells, it could trigger a chain reaction and lead to a breakdown, marking a bearish moment. The market behavior over the past few months is either what I described as 'mid-term adjustment' or I misjudged and we have fully entered a bear market; we will soon see the answer.
The recent incident where Binance punished market makers has caused quite a stir, with market makers receiving coins only to sell and not buy, treating investors like fools. Why do altcoins launch at peak prices now? Why have we retail investors not seen the 'altcoin season'? It’s because of these unscrupulous market makers and manipulators. On one hand, we should resist altcoins as much as possible, and on the other hand, we can see that the entire market is almost uniformly bearish at this stage.
That's right, when the market shows consistent bearishness, what should we do? Go against the trend!
My position is 90%, choosing to almost fully invest at this level. To be honest, in such a market atmosphere, having no panic is definitely unrealistic, but since my position structure is something I am quite comfortable with, about 70% is ETH, 20% in mainstream coins, and 10% in altcoins. Additionally, I have prepared for the worst-case scenario, which is to hold onto my spot if there is a breakdown and wait for brighter days to return. I might say something that everyone might find absurd, deep down I still expect ETH to reach 10,000 USD.
Whether it's policy, news, or funds, in my opinion, none of these are as important as technological development. As long as this fundamental continues to improve, we should hold onto hope. Of course, in investing, no one can be absolute. The reason I share my position for reference is not because I am confident in a bullish outlook; on the contrary, I believe that the market behavior over the next few months will hover at lower levels and may even occasionally break down, which is quite agonizing. However, I know there are many heavy investors at this stage; I hope you understand that you are not alone.
The market showing consistent bearishness may not be the lowest price, but looking at it long-term, it is actually the best time to hold firmly.
Thank you for your attention.