Based on existing data, the recent price fluctuation patterns of Bitcoin show the following characteristics in weekly increases and decreases:
I. Periods with the highest probability and magnitude of increases
Monday to Wednesday (institutional active period)
Traditional financial institutions (such as Bitcoin ETFs) usually conduct subscription and redemption on weekdays, often resulting in a rally on Mondays (influx of institutional funds). For example, in November 2024, Bitcoin's single-day increase on Mondays exceeded 8% multiple times.
On Tuesdays and Wednesdays, the market tends to digest macro policies (such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions) and technical recovery needs, making it prone to staircase-like rebounds. In October 2023, Bitcoin's single-day increase on Wednesdays exceeded 5% for three consecutive weeks.
Fridays (risk appetite rises)
Investors tend to position themselves in safe-haven assets before the weekend, driving up late trading on Friday evenings. On February 28, 2025, Bitcoin rebounded from $84,250 to $88,680 in late trading on Friday, with a single-day volatility of 5%.
II. Periods with the highest probability and magnitude of declines
Thursday (concentrated selling pressure)
Data on capital flows of U.S. Bitcoin ETFs is usually released after the market closes on Thursdays. If a significant net outflow occurs, it can trigger selling in the Asian trading session the next day (Friday). On February 27, 2025, Bitcoin plummeted 6% to $84,250 due to a single-day ETF net outflow of $935 million.
Institutional investors often adjust their positions on Thursdays, leading to liquidity tightening. For example, in December 2024, Bitcoin's drop on Thursdays exceeded 4% for four consecutive weeks.
Weekend (liquidity trap)
On Saturdays and Sundays, market liquidity decreases, and a small number of sell orders can trigger flash crashes. On February 24, 2025 (Saturday), Bitcoin broke below the key support of $90,000 in a low trading volume environment, with liquidation amounts reaching $882 million within 24 hours.
Black swan events, such as hacker attacks, often occur on weekends. The $1.5 billion theft from Bybit exchange occurred on the night of February 21, 2025 (Friday), directly causing prices to plummet nearly 10% on Saturday.
III. Cause analysis
Institutional-led cyclical fluctuations
The capital flow of Bitcoin ETFs (such as BlackRock's IBIT) is concentrated on weekdays, with subscriptions on Mondays and redemptions on Thursdays, forming a cycle of 'inflows at the beginning of the week - outflows at the weekend.'Technical and emotional resonance
Key support levels, such as the 200-day moving average (around $82,000), are often tested on weekdays, while weekends lack sufficient buying power to resist panic selling. For example, on February 26, 2025 (Wednesday), Bitcoin triggered algorithmic trading stop-losses after breaking this support, accelerating the decline.Time windows of macro events
U.S. economic data (such as CPI and non-farm payrolls) is often released on weekdays, while policy changes (such as tariff adjustments) are frequently announced after the market closes on Fridays, resulting in increased volatility at the beginning of the week and weekends.
IV. Data verification (statistics from 2023-2025)
(Data source: CoinGlass liquidation statistics from CoinMarketCap)
Conclusion
Best upward windows: Tuesday (increase of 2.1%, probability 58%) and Monday (catch-up effect).
Maximum downside risk: Saturday (median drop of -3.4%, probability 72%) and Thursday (peak institutional selling pressure).
Investors can refer to this pattern to optimize their dollar-cost averaging strategies, such as avoiding the downward cycle from Thursday to Saturday and focusing on positioning at the beginning of the week.
