The cryptocurrency market today (28th) is roaring with killings, Bitcoin plunged sharply in the Asian morning session, dropping from $84,000 and even threatening to breach the $80,000 integer level, causing panic in the market. Ultimately, is this just a 'healthy correction' in a bull market, or the beginning of another 'mass slaughter'?
Bitcoin hit a low of $79,034 this morning, but by the time of publication, it had risen to $79,544, with a drop of about 7.78% in the past 24 hours. Meanwhile, other cryptocurrencies have also fallen.
The market trend is consistent with yesterday's judgment; it still hasn't truly stopped falling, and there is always a probability of breaking below 80,000.
Currently, Bitcoin is in a downward channel. In this case, if Bitcoin wants to confirm a strong rebound trend, it needs to break through this channel first. Based on the recent downward trend, it is estimated that it will continue to decline until the channel is broken.
Currently, we hope Bitcoin can find support around $77,000. If it can stabilize around $77,000 for a while, and then break through the price again, there is still hope for a rise, and the bull market may continue. However, if it stabilizes at $77,000 and then experiences sideways fluctuations and chooses to break down again, then we may truly enter a bear market phase.
Trump's tariff cannon firing wildly, propelling the collapse of crypto/U.S. stocks.
The main reason for the collapse of crypto/U.S. stocks currently is Trump's comprehensive equivalent tariffs:
- A 25% tariff will be imposed on the European Union.
- Starting from March 4, a 25% tariff will be imposed on Mexico and Canada.
- Imposing an additional 10% tariff on us would be a double blow to China, adding 10% on top of an already heavy tariff. Products that previously circumvented tariffs through Mexico would also be subject to a 25% tariff. The biggest threat to the U.S. itself is inflation.
The biggest threat to global capital markets is the U.S. suspending interest rate cuts.
From Trump's series of actions, comprehensive equivalent tariffs are not just talk; they have already been implemented. The tariff war will lead to short-term collapses in U.S. stocks, crypto, A-shares, etc.
What strategy should be used to respond to the market outlook now?
Although the above information shows many risks in the short term, the opportunities may far outweigh the risks! Trump's tariff war could create a golden pit, possibly similar to last year's 85, and previous 312 and 519.
Although Bitcoin has fallen below $80,000, it is not yet time. Many people have started to buy the dip around $80,000, but I think it's not the right time. Don't operate with the mindset that the market will reverse immediately; at most, there will be a rebound, and Bitcoin will still have to oscillate to find a bottom.
If you are confident in yourself, it is recommended to adopt a gradual approach to buy the dip. In the current market environment, simply following the strategy of 'buying when it falls' may not be applicable. If you lean towards being conservative, you can wait for a strong rebound before choosing to enter the market.
In summary, the market has not yet fallen through, and the future trend will come. Preparation should be made in advance to avoid being without 'bullets' when the market truly starts.
Additionally, the U.S. PCE price index for January, which will be announced tonight, will be closely watched. Originally, this data would not have a significant impact on the market (as it has already been fully digested), but at this highly sensitive moment, any small change could become the last straw that breaks the market's psychological defense line.