With institutional investors increasingly interested in digital assets, Cardano (ADA) is becoming the focus of investor attention, signaling a potential influx of substantial funds in the future. Since Grayscale announced its submission of the Cardano Spot ETF application on February 11, 2025, ADA's market popularity has surged, sparking widespread discussion in the market.
Cardano's trading volume has increased by 3.6% in the past 24 hours, with a 12% rise over the past week. This trend indicates that, although the overall market is still consolidating, ADA's price is showing signs of upward momentum.
Whale accumulation and the potential of ETFs
In the context of increasing interest from institutional investors, Grayscale's Cardano ETF application undoubtedly injects a strong boost into Cardano's future. According to Bloomberg reports, the probability of Cardano ETF approval is currently as high as 60%, and the market generally believes that March 27 will be a critical date for the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to make a decision. Whether approved, denied, or postponed, it will have a significant impact on Cardano's market trends.
Meanwhile, although Cardano's price experienced a decline last December, the continued accumulation by large investors suggests a market optimism for the future. Even when prices are temporarily in a consolidation phase, institutional investors have clearly been quietly accumulating at lower price levels, which may be laying the groundwork for an upcoming breakout. This phenomenon resembles the upward cycles of mainstream digital assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum in history and suggests similar price trends may be on the horizon.
Technical analysis and historical patterns
From a technical analysis perspective, Cardano's daily chart shows a clear bullish momentum, with prices continually setting higher highs, suggesting the formation of an uptrend. According to the analysis, the current price movement is somewhat similar to the altcoin accumulation phase between 2019 and 2020, which was a key period for the market to lay the groundwork for the 2021 bull market.
Analysis shared by TapTools on its X (formerly Twitter) account points out that since 2022, ADA's accumulation phase has been remarkably similar to the weekly chart trends of previous bull markets. Cardano is currently at the upper limit of its accumulation range, and the likelihood of breaking through the key psychological barrier of $1 is continually increasing. A break above $1 would be a significant milestone for Cardano, potentially attracting more investor attention and triggering broader market buying.
On-chain data and market trends
Further analysis of on-chain data shows that Cardano's relative strength index (RSI) has risen from 44 to 55, indicating that buying pressure is gradually increasing, while the market is not in an overbought state, providing investors with sufficient signals to further engage. Additionally, data from Santiment indicates that the increase in active wallet addresses for ADA last week coincided with a rise in trading volume, suggesting that network activity is gradually becoming more active. This phenomenon is typically combined with positive market sentiment, indicating that more investors are gaining confidence in Cardano's future prospects.
At the same time, Cardano's Plomin hard fork also provides its token holders with greater governance power, further boosting its growth expectations. The successful implementation of the Plomin hard fork brings more decentralized governance opportunities to the network and enhances Cardano's ecosystem in the blockchain field, attracting more users and investors.
Breaking through $1 and welcoming the bull market rebound
In summary, the outlook for Cardano in the coming weeks is full of potential. Factors such as the approval of a spot ETF, historical accumulation patterns, and the Plomin hard fork may prompt ADA to break through the key psychological level of $1 and ultimately push the price to challenge higher resistance levels of $3. These factors suggest that a bull market rebound for Cardano may be imminent, and the market's reaction will determine whether its price can break through the important threshold of $3.
However, Cardano's rapid rise is not without risks. While current market sentiment leans bullish, the high volatility of the cryptocurrency market still exists, and any macroeconomic changes or shifts in regulatory policies could lead to drastic market fluctuations. Therefore, investors must remain vigilant when considering Cardano's future potential and should not blindly follow market sentiment but make informed decisions based on their own risk tolerance.
Overall, Cardano (ADA) is at a critical turning point, and with more institutional investor involvement, ADA's price is expected to break through the current price range and enter a new bull market cycle.