Nos últimos dois dias, o BTC e a maioria das criptomoedas têm subido uma após a outra. Muitas pessoas recuperaram muitas das perdas de 3 de fevereiro, e algumas criptomoedas até subiram bastante. Vamos dar uma olhada no mercado geral e nos dados para que todos possam ter uma ideia geral da situação. No final do artigo, há algumas opiniões pessoais sobre as operações. Este artigo é meramente uma análise pessoal e não constitui nenhum conselho de investimento. #币安HODLer空投LAYER
Deixe-me primeiro expor a conclusão, seguida de notícias e análises técnicas: $BTC $BNB $SOL
Sobre o BTC: Prevê-se que ele se ajuste entre 95.000 e 100.000. Não há nenhuma força motriz positiva óbvia no momento, e a alavancagem e os riscos devem ser reduzidos quando o preço subir.
BNB: Espera-se que se consolide entre 610-670. Hoje, ainda está relacionado à flutuação do TST. Então, um novo airdrop foi emitido, o que também o puxou para cima.
Regarding ETH: expected to fluctuate around 2500-2900, with a weak trend. It's a pity that so many highlights haven't emerged recently.
Dogecoin, Solana, Ripple, and Shiba Inu are all rising, mainly fluctuating in the direction of BTC.
Altcoin Season Index, which shows that in the past 90 days, about 42 projects in the top 100 cryptocurrencies have outperformed BTC, 10 more than yesterday. There are signs of recovery in altcoins, but be careful not to be caught in a major drop with BTC.
From the news perspective, this week the Federal Reserve members' speeches and inflation data release will affect market trends. Bitcoin is trying to recover the range of $97,200 to $98,500, but until macro data clarifies, price fluctuations and position liquidations will continue. Former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra proposed to set up a Bitcoin sandbox area in Phuket, allowing foreign tourists to pay for real estate and travel expenses with Bitcoin, without cash restrictions. Florida lawmakers proposed a bill allowing 10% of state funds to be invested in Bitcoin. North Carolina has also proposed a similar bill, planning to invest up to 10% of state government and highway funds into Bitcoin. Currently, 23 states are paying attention to digital asset investments.
Next is the technical analysis:
1. From the BTC candlestick chart, the 4-hour line is in an upward channel, while the daily line is still in a box shape, with no new direction emerging for bulls and bears.
2. Greed and Fear Index observation: currently at 47, 1 more than yesterday, which is in the neutral zone and will not last too long in this range.
3. BTC perpetual contract funding rate is 0.0087%, ETH is 0.0053%, the long position is slightly better than yesterday, BTC is slightly better than ETH.
4. Observing the maximum pain point of options in the next 3 months, within 3 days at 97000-99000, the impact is small. At the end of March, there is a maximum pain point at 85000 with a nominal amount of 10.4 billion that needs attention, which has increased somewhat.
5. Spot ETFs observation: weekend suspended, will observe again on Monday.
6. From the RSI (Relative Strength Index) perspective, BTC, BNB, Ripple, Solana, Shiba Inu, ADA, and Litecoin are neutral in the past 24 hours, while ETH and Dogecoin are weak. Most other mainstream and altcoins have gradually rebounded, with about two-fifths returning to neutral, still in the range where selling pressure is not strong.
7. From the top escape index, it is currently in the middle to lower range, at a moderate position.
8. The BTC accumulation index is at 1.22, basically suitable for regular investment accumulation.
From these rounds of crashes, it can be seen that breaking through the peak of 110,000 is quite difficult, but every time BTC drops sharply, other coins definitely crash. Therefore, strategically, when BTC is at a high, caution is warranted. If you have various mainstream and altcoins, gradually exchange some for BTC to reduce risk for the next round of drops. If you're afraid of missing out on profits, you can exchange a little bit every day and exchange more when there's a big rise.
