Esta semana foi uma semana de declínios acentuados para todas as moedas, exceto Bitcoin. O Eth teve um retrocesso máximo de 30% em 3100. Para investimentos longos em contratos com quase o dobro da alavancagem, todos eles faliram. O volume de negociação do Eth em 3 de fevereiro atingiu uma nova alta desde o mercado de baixa em 2022.
Outras altcoins não convencionais retornaram aos preços do mercado de baixa novamente. Nos últimos dias, houve algumas vozes gritando que o mercado de baixa está chegando. Agora parece que os indicadores de dados devem ser ajustados para indicadores de investimento fixo do mercado de baixa. O declínio desta semana me fez refletir bastante pessoalmente. Acho que também é um crescimento e ganho relativamente grande na minha jornada de investimento. Primeiro, desde que comecei a investir no mercado de criptomoedas, cada onda de declínio de cerca de 30% a cada ano é bastante comum. Chegou até a se aproximar de um halving no curto prazo em 17,94 e 20,312. Parece que me lembro de que houve algumas vezes assim. A única diferença dessa vez é que o BTC em si não caiu muito, enquanto outras moedas, exceto o Bitcoin, caíram muito, e isso sob a premissa de que as moedas em si não subiram muito nessa onda de mercado.
Most people in the cryptocurrency circle seem to be like a boatman trying to find a sword in the water, viewing this wave of market trends based on the previous bull market of 2021. I personally also believed that it was very likely for ETH and other cryptocurrencies to break new highs in the two months following BTC's new high. However, I never expected that ETH would experience a significant pullback in those two months after BTC's new high. I believe this pullback has had a considerable impact on some people.
The biggest threshold in the investment market is that there are no thresholds. The investment market itself is a dynamic evolution. In this circle where value and cash flow have not yet been generated, price games are zero-sum games. As more and more people adopt a bullish outlook, if there is no subsequent incremental growth, the price decline will make it easier to form a stampede and a death spiral, until all leverage is wiped out, creating new fuel for future rises. My viewpoint remains unchanged; I firmly believe that this bull market is still worth looking forward to. As long as one does not use contract leverage and does not heavily invest in cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin and Ethereum, the persistence now will surely bring us good returns in the future.
By observing Ethereum's trading volume reaching record highs on the day of February 3, while ETH saw an outflow from exchanges of 720,000 coins over the past week, it can be noted from on-chain addresses that the proportion of holdings among the top 100 addresses has been continuously increasing, with chips continuously concentrating towards large holders.
Let’s talk about statistical data indicators. Due to the recent market being lackluster and the data being quite similar, I didn't summarize last week's statistics. I never expected that February 3 would usher in a new anniversary for the cryptocurrency circle. The recent week's decline should make many people realize that apart from Bitcoin, other cryptocurrencies are not worth holding. I unknowingly summarized my reflections for the next wave of new layouts, concluding that Bitcoin should occupy at least 60%. However, statistical data has shown slightly opposite results, with Bitcoin experiencing continuous outflows for five weeks and an inflow of 50,000 coins this week. Although ETH has seen a significant decline, it has experienced a linear outflow of 720,000 coins. In the future, as the market restarts, many people will likely exchange ETH for Bitcoin or cautiously allocate to other cryptocurrencies, increasing their Bitcoin holdings. Each one of us is a participant in this game, and being in the midst of it can lead to confusion for the decision-makers. If one has been wrong, it is very likely that new parameters will lead to further incorrect conclusions.
Since starting to invest in 2017, while surviving in both the stock market and the cryptocurrency market, my biggest realization is that one should never use leverage, never engage in contracts, and especially never borrow money to invest. I have seen too many waves of decline leading to death spirals, with casualties everywhere. Market trends are always unpredictable. There is no need to hold quality assets or cash in the long term. In the cryptocurrency circle, BTC and ETH, investment changes but never strays from its core. Investment is about allocation. Regardless of whether one chooses government bonds, gold, or real estate... it ultimately boils down to judging which future returns are more probable. Comparing cash assets to measure quality assets, Bitcoin and Ethereum in the cryptocurrency circle, regardless of the extent of their declines, as long as they continue to reach higher price points, all the ups and downs, like traversing through mountains of knives and seas of flames, are just massages for us, meant to strengthen us, allowing us to grow stronger through practical experience, to understand and feel this market, and to adapt to it.
