Let’s start with the conclusion: The non-farm payroll data to be released this Friday may exceed expectations.
The non-farm payroll data this Friday is crucial. Since everyone knows that the small and large non-farm payroll data are correlated, let’s review the past year to see how their correlation actually is.
I've gathered the records of the small and large non-farm payroll data from 2024, and made a simple chart:
In the recent comparison of the small and large non-farm payroll data over the last 11 times, it was found that: 5 times the results of both showed consistency (both either above or below the expected data) while in 6 instances the results showed the opposite. Among them, 5 times the comparison results showed: the small non-farm payroll data was below expectations (bullish), while the large non-farm payroll data was above expectations (bearish). From past data comparisons: The small non-farm payroll data released this time (January 8) was below the expected data, while the large non-farm payroll data this Friday is likely to be released above the expected data!
The non-farm payroll data this Friday is crucial. Since everyone knows that the small and large non-farm payroll data are correlated, let’s review the past year to see how their correlation actually is.
I've gathered the records of the small and large non-farm payroll data from 2024, and made a simple chart:
In the recent comparison of the small and large non-farm payroll data over the last 11 times, it was found that: 5 times the results of both showed consistency (both either above or below the expected data) while in 6 instances the results showed the opposite. Among them, 5 times the comparison results showed: the small non-farm payroll data was below expectations (bullish), while the large non-farm payroll data was above expectations (bearish). From past data comparisons: The small non-farm payroll data released this time (January 8) was below the expected data, while the large non-farm payroll data this Friday is likely to be released above the expected data!
