We reviewed the market performance over the past decade and found that the market fluctuations during Christmas are actually quite balanced. Specifically, in the past ten Christmases, there were 6 instances of market decline and 4 instances of market rise. Looking at the overall market performance in December, the probabilities of rising and falling are almost even. Therefore, the claim that the Christmas market will correct is completely unsupported by data, and there is no need for excessive worry.

However, there is a noteworthy phenomenon: in past bull markets, Christmas has often been an important node for market initiation. For example, Bitcoin and Ethereum began a strong bull market lasting about 110 days from Christmas. In this bull market, Bitcoin rose by 185%, Ethereum soared by 600%, Solana increased by 4200%, BNB rose by 2000%, and Doge recorded a 1900% increase.

Looking ahead to the current market, will Christmas once again become the starting point for a new bull market? From the current situation, the likelihood is very high.

From a macro perspective, the market is strongly supported by quantitative easing policies; at the meso level, ETF allocations are gradually improving; at the micro level, various data are sending positive signals. Analyzing from various dimensions, the current market does not have the conditions for a deep correction. Especially as institutional investors are still actively entering the market, continuously pushing up the fair market price of Bitcoin.

Taking Ethereum as an example, although its recent performance has been relatively flat, the underlying chip distribution reveals important information. Currently, a large amount of liquidity is in the hands of whales:

At least 104 whales holding over 100,000 Ethereum account for 57% of the total liquidity;

Whales holding between 10,000 and 100,000 Ethereum account for 33.4% of the liquidity;

Retail investors holding fewer than 100 Ethereum account for only 9.19%.

This set of data reflects an important issue: retail investors generally lack confidence in Ethereum, while whales are continuously accumulating. Combining recent panic statements about Ethereum in the market, it can be seen that these opinions are likely a tactic of the manipulators behind the scenes.

Between retail investors and institutional players, information is always asymmetric. When retail investors are generally pessimistic, it is precisely the time we should insist on holding. The current chip concentration is a significant positive for the bull market, as it will greatly reduce the difficulty of rallying. Once the market starts, retail investors can only chase high prices.

Therefore, in the face of the current market situation, we should remain rational, not be disturbed by short-term fluctuations and negative opinions, and firmly grasp our chips, especially Ethereum. The increase in chip concentration may become an important boost for the next bull market, and Christmas may once again become a key time point for market initiation.