Good evening, brothers and sisters! Last night, Bitcoin reached 102,500 USD when the U.S. stock market opened, exactly touching the previously mentioned resistance level, and then corrected to around 99,200 USD in the morning, where it is a key support level.
Ethereum is still under pressure at the 4000 USD threshold, and this morning the price corrected to around 3835 USD support level.
Market Hotspots and Positive News:
The Trump family project recently invested in ETH, LINK, and AAVE, attracting market attention.
Later, Grayscale will include OP and LDO in new investment products.
ENS, a project favored by Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin, is also considered to have long-term development potential.
The Difference Between Strong and Weak Coins:
During severe market declines, high-quality projects can usually rebound quickly and even set new highs; while those coins that follow the trend or are inherently weak find it difficult to recover to their starting points, let alone set new highs. In contrast, strong coins attract more capital inflow during market corrections, often seeing larger rebound margins.
Weekend Market Expectations: As the weekend approaches, retail investors' speculation will dominate market trends. If there are no new news impacts, the market is unlikely to drop significantly. Next, we need to pay close attention to the Federal Reserve's meeting decisions next week. The market generally expects the Fed may cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the probability of a rate cut is quite high. Additionally, Japan's meeting on the 19th seems to have been postponed until March next year. If this postponement news is true, then we may need to consider a reduction strategy during the 3-5 month period.
ETH Fund Flow and Market Trends:
ETH has seen a net inflow for 14 consecutive days, with a considerable amount of funds, but the price has remained in a fluctuating range. Analysts believe that ETH is currently in a turnover period, with significant market divergence; old investors are beginning to exit, while external funds are gradually entering the market.
Referring to the trend after the BTC ETF launch, similar turnover periods usually indicate that prices are about to explode. BTC rose 70% after the ETF turnover period ended. Therefore, ETH's price is expected to rise after the turnover period ends.
BTC ETF and Market Behavior: The current BTC ETF is still attracting capital inflows, but market prices remain volatile, indicating that there is still a division among market investors. Old investors are selling, while institutions like MicroStrategy and Wall Street continue to buy. The end of the turnover period usually indicates that the market is about to enter a new upward phase.
Market Trends and Investment Strategies: For investors who insist on holding altcoins, historical data shows a relatively high win-loss ratio. The current ETH exchange rate has fallen to the level of early 2021 and has just begun to rebound. The market capitalization of Bitcoin has also returned to the level of early 2021 and has begun to decline, with volume showing reversal signals. Meanwhile, the leverage funds in the market have been liquidated over 2 billion, and the current market atmosphere indicates that we are entering the starting point of a bull market.
Although some people choose to sell at the top, this behavior can be understood. After all, many investors also chose to sell at the top at the end of 2020. However, history has proven that selling at the top is not the best strategy. When the market enters the FOMO stage, these investors will pour into the market like new retail investors.
Stick to Strategy: For investors who choose to hold, the most important thing is patience. There is no need to be anxious about the gains of others' assets; those coins that currently have smaller gains may yield greater returns in the future. Frequently switching positions and blindly chasing gains usually leads to poor results. Sticking to holding is the most prudent strategy.
DeFi and Ethereum's Independent Market: From the recent performance of DeFi projects, including Trump’s investments in LINK and AAVE, it can be foreseen that Ethereum has a high probability of leading a wave of independent market trends. This also explains why Ethereum has always been regarded as the core platform in the DeFi field. Within the Ethereum ecosystem, many top DeFi projects have already been built, and Ethereum's decentralization and security are particularly important for DeFi projects and large institutions.
Future Outlook and Strategy: The Trump family has already begun to lay out their plans in DeFi projects, which also demonstrates the potential of the crypto market. Although he has not officially taken office yet, the policy outlook for the crypto market remains optimistic. If Trump further supports cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology after taking office, the market's speculative space will be very broad.
The second half of the month is approaching, and Christmas is also near, many institutions need to settle annual rates and the like, so, currently, there may be demand for profit-taking at the high levels of Bitcoin. Although the news every day is BlackRock's continuous buying, it does not mean that the market will continue to rise. It is a potential upward driving force; the fact is that buying is ongoing, but the price is still fluctuating at a high level, indicating that there is still a considerable profit margin around 100,000 in the short term. Therefore, during the adjustment period, if Ethereum hits 3500 and Solana hits around 200, do not hesitate to buy in a bit!