lemiscate

#OilTankersGoDarkAsHormuzShippingSlows Oil Tankers Are Turning Off Their Lights and Playing Hide and Seek With a War 🚢🔦 Hormuz vessel traffic collapsed to a near standstill this week after the new US strikes and Iranian retaliation we covered yesterday. The Joint Maritime Information Center just raised the strait's threat level to severe following three separate attacks on commercial vessels. Brent jumped to around $79, WTI near $74, both pricing in a war risk premium that was supposed to be retiring quietly a few weeks ago. 📊 Here is the detail that actually made me pause 🧠 Some large tankers are still crossing the strait right now, just with their transponders switched off entirely. No signal. No tracking. Ships quite literally going dark to avoid becoming a headline themselves. That means official traffic numbers, already grim, might undercount what is genuinely happening out there. Captains are choosing invisibility over broadcasting their position during active hostilities, which is either extremely smart risk management or the maritime equivalent of turning off your location sharing before doing something you would rather not explain later. 😂 The honest scoreboard 📉 Persian Gulf flows had recovered above 80% of pre war levels after the earlier reopening. The latest attacks pushed that back into the low 70s. Polymarket traders currently give just 18% odds that Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31. That is not cautious optimism. That is a market that has watched this movie enough times to stop believing the trailer. 🎭 This is the same Middle East risk the Fed explicitly named in yesterday's split minutes as a reason inflation might not cooperate. The tankers going dark and the Fed staying divided are reading from the identical script. 🎯 $BTC $ETH