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BTC and ETH monthly close: Bitcoin: $BTC closed the June month very weak. A large red monthly candle with no wicks, down 20%, and record ETF outflows show that the bears are in control. During the month, sellers did not face a serious reaction :/ Ethereum: $ETH also closed weakly. ETH is around 1.6k and Ethereum ETFs saw -$27.6 million outflows on June 30. For ETH, 1,600 is psychological support; below that, the 1,500–1,450 range comes into view.

BTC chart commentary: On the 5-minute chart, $BTC broke upward out of the consolidation around 58.5k and quickly reacted at 60.2k. In the short term, buyers have stepped in. On the 1-hour chart, the 58.2k–60.7k range is still in play. The RSI is around 69, meaning it’s warmed up a bit in the short term. If 60.7k is broken, the squeeze effect could test above 62k. On the daily chart, the picture is still weak: this is a relief rally, not a trend reversal.

Bitcoin reacted upward to around 60k after slipping below 58k today. We can interpret it as relief following weak data. ADP employment came in weak, ISM manufacturing was reported below expectations, and bond yields eased. BTC investors also saw this positive signal as an opportunity and bought up to 60k. But the bigger picture is still weak: June was extremely taxing. BTC closed the month down 20%. This is BTC’s worst monthly performance since June 2022. US spot BTC ETFs saw $4.5 billion in outflows in June. IBIT alone accounted for $3.55 billion of those outflows. In ETFs, there were outflows for 9 straight days into month-end. On June 30, $BTC ETFs again saw negative inflows of -$222.6 million. On Polymarket, both seeing prices below 55k and a retest of the 65k–70k range by the end of the year are considered possible for BTC. In other words, the market may be pricing a scenario where first the 55k wick is tapped, followed by a reaction toward 65k–70k.

This week’s expectation of a decline in the market deepened. 55K is expected. For $BTC, there is fear; ETF outflows continue; the Strategy side is creating pressure in the market, and other investment instruments are pulling liquidity out of crypto. If 58K breaks, it seems like 55K will follow. Even below 55K, a structural support zone between 54K and 51K is being discussed. BUT in such scenarios, the likelihood of a short squeeze increases! Of course, this doesn’t provide a sustainable long-term uptrend.

This week $BTC fell as low as 58k, then rebounded toward 60k. But the real question is: who is buying in this drop, and who is selling? The ETF side gives a very clear answer: institutional money doesn’t seem to be acting like it’s buying the dip right now—it seems to be reducing risk. The outflows in recent days have been very harsh.

There’s also Strategy stock. In the past, the market used to think, “Saylor will buy again and move Bitcoin.” Now, Strategy’s market value has fallen below the value of its BTC holdings. I think this is an important psychological break. In other words, we’re no longer only watching the Bitcoin chart—we’re also watching whether the big narratives that carry Bitcoin are weakening.

As for Monday… In the past few weeks, we’ve seen “green Mondays,” only to get sold off afterward. So if BTC opens green on Monday again, we shouldn’t get too excited right away. The real question will be: this time, can it stay above 60k? Can it continue up to 62,500? Or will we see the same thing as at the beginning of the week—a reaction on Monday, followed by selling during the week?

Bitcoin fell to around 58 thousand, and today it is trying to approach 60 thousand. This is good, but it’s not enough. Because the ETF side is still very bad. Only on June 25, about $779 million exited from crypto ETFs. Institutional money is reducing risk. Today there is also an options expiry of $10.6 billion. Many positions have stayed above, meaning the market price is far below the options’ expectations. As $BTC falls below 60k, pressure increases on Strategy’s balance sheet. The company’s preferred product called STRC has slid to around $73; this shows that investors are pricing Strategy’s risk more cautiously. On June 30, the $STRC dividend rate will be reset. If the rate increases, it could be attractive for investors, but Strategy’s financing cost will also rise.

$BTC did not hold 60k as support. Bitcoin fell to as low as $58k. This is no longer a simple correction; it’s a period where ETF outflows, long liquidations, a strong dollar, and weak liquidity are all hitting the market at the same time. On the chart, the 60k support level has been broken. Now the 58k–57.5k zone is being defended. Polymarket is pricing in a 60% chance of seeing 57.5k. Be careful—when everyone starts expecting a drop at the same time, the market sometimes reacts first.

Unfortunately this week is continuing as expected. Monday green, then a quick drop... Bitcoin started nicely on Monday—65k was seen, and everyone felt a bit more comfortable. But the issue isn’t just whether it reached 65k; it was whether it could hold that level as support. It couldn’t. 🥲 🥲 Now it looks like $BTC may see 60K, but reaching it likely won’t be enough for investors—deeper lows will come. In my opinion, the reason for the drop isn’t only the chart. ETFs are negative again, the dollar is strengthening, and even gold is falling—so there’s an overall “de-risking” happening in the market. Brent crude slid to $75, but even that couldn’t lift crypto because concerns about the Fed and liquidity weigh more. It’s said that OG sales have fallen to their lowest in 19 months. If that’s true, it could be a good long-term signal; it would mean old investors aren’t panic-selling anymore. But in the short term, ETF outflows and a strong dollar will be more decisive. This bear market has started to feel way too long to me—we’re bored already.

As we expected over the weekend, there was a quick move, and Bitcoin tested the 65k level again. But the key is holding this level. We've had six consecutive local tops. Weekend rallies come in with low volume, and when Monday hits with real liquidity and ETF sell-offs, the movement tends to pull back :/ For me, if 65k holds, the next target is 67.5k, followed by 70-71k. However, on Polymarket, only 10% are betting on 70k for this month :/// For now, we can't call this a solid reaction rally. The dollar is strong, and the cash flow into $BTC is low.

The Iran deal is signed, Hormuz is opening, oil prices are dropping... So why did crypto take a hit while stocks are climbing? 😶😐🫤 Stocks gained momentum from the Iran deal and falling oil prices. However, crypto remains more sensitive to interest rate expectations and direct ETF demand. Geopolitical relief was positive, but the Fed not supporting rate cut expectations and ETF outflows weighed heavier. Around $111 million exited from BTC and ETH ETFs combined. The simultaneous negativity of both assets suggests this isn’t a shift from ETH to BTC, but rather a general risk reduction in crypto. On the Bitcoin chart, the 200-week moving average is around $61,800. BTC briefly dipped below this level at the start of June, but is currently back above it. I see this area as a long-term value zone, but I’m not saying “it’s here, definitely the bottom.” 2022 taught us that Bitcoin can stay below the 200-week average for an extended period. I’ll remain cautious until Bitcoin flips $65,000 back to support and ETF demand makes a comeback.

The Fed kept rates steady, but Warsh didn't signal any rate cuts. He mentioned that inflation is still high and emphasized price stability. A rate hike is even on the table. Normally, this would be negative for crypto. However, $BTC holding strong around the 65K zone after the initial sell-off is significant. There was some inflow on the ETF side yesterday, but just +$10M. Selling pressure has decreased despite the negative news flow.

Today, there's a clear relief in the market. Bitcoin reclaiming $65,000 has boosted morale because there's solid news flow behind this rally: - Trump announced the Iran deal - Expectations are building for the Strait of Hormuz to reopen - Oil prices dropped, alleviating inflation fears. - On top of that, ETFs turned positive after a long hiatus last Friday - Strategy bought more $BTC. So the market is pricing in several positive catalysts at once. I think FOMO has kicked in. Especially with short positions getting liquidated, the move has accelerated. But I tend to be more cautious with rallies driven by short squeezes. These kinds of moves can come fast, but if spot buyers don't keep up, they can tire just as quickly. On the ETF side, last Friday saw a nice inflow of +$85.9 million. Really impressive. Institutions are coming back. The market is currently pricing in relief after a period of fear. That's good. But relief and a sustainable bull turn are not the same. Let's keep an eye on the levels.

When I checked out the crypto market over the weekend, here's what I saw: Bitcoin is still hanging in there, but we're not at the "everything's back to normal" stage yet. It's crucial for Bitcoin to hold above 63.000$ ! Last week, the selling pressure was intense. There were ETF withdrawals, the macro side was messy, and the Iran-Hormuz risk was amplifying inflation fears through oil. However, Friday saw positive inflows into $BTC ETFs after a long hiatus, which boosted market morale. 👉 Let's not jump into FOMO right away. A single day of ETF inflow doesn’t tell us a trend reversal story, but it does say: "institutions still want to buy". Have they really returned? We'll see this in the next few days of inflows. The Iran-Hormuz issue is very critical. If a deal is actually signed and the strait opens, the pressure on oil will ease. If oil relaxes, inflation fears will also decrease somewhat. This would reduce stress on the Fed. Very positive for crypto! But I still think we need to be cautious. With inflation at 4.2%, liquidity conditions aren’t easy. So, I interpret today's movement not as "the trend has reversed", but rather as "the market took a breather". For now, we can call this move a controlled reaction rally rather than the start of a bull run.

Today there was an interesting shift in the market. A few days ago, people were talking about: the war escalating, oil prices skyrocketing, and Bitcoin hitting 57.5K. However, today the narrative started to change. Trump stated unequivocally that the war would end; meanwhile, Iran announced that the Strait of Hormuz is still closed. But the market is leaning towards Trump. The worst-case scenario may have temporarily left the table. So today: 📈 The exchanges rallied 📉 Gold improved slightly 📈 Bitcoin continued its recovery I think there’s an important development on the chart side: the 60K support held. This isn’t the first reaction. Buyers have been showing up in the same area for several days now. The RSI has started to turn upward from the bottom zone. The MACD is showing weakening selling momentum. But to be honest, I’m still not saying "the bull is back." For me, the real decision point is in the $BTC range of 64K–65K. If this area is reclaimed, the likelihood of 60K being the bottom strengthens significantly. But if we get rejected, the market may want to test the support again. Meanwhile, everyone is talking about SpaceX. In the short term, some capital may shift from crypto to tech. However, in the long run, I don’t think SpaceX trading on the blockchain is negative for crypto; on the contrary, it’s a significant development indicating the maturity of the sector. Positive for $SOL.

ABD PPI data came in at 6.5% and exceeded expectations. CPI was also high yesterday. The market received a "Fed won't cut rates" message for the second time in a row. Right at this moment, Trump made statements regarding Iran's Kharg Island and oil exports. Iran also announced that it has completely closed the Strait of Hormuz. Another development is that the US has established itself as the world's largest oil exporter, surpassing Saudi Arabia. By the way, there's an interesting detail. Last week everyone was talking about 57.5K. Now, upward expectations have started to strengthen again on Polymarket. The probability of $BTC "rising" today looks like 78%, and in the same chart, the weekly "below 60K" probability is still at 24%. So, fear isn't completely gone, but the market isn't pricing in a one-way collapse anymore. Another point that caught my attention is SpaceX 👉 SpaceX shares are being tokenized on Solana, clearly indicating the direction the sector is heading in the long term. $SOL The macro side is still painful. However, the market isn't in panic mode like last week. This also strengthens the support at 60K. What do you think? I'm waiting for your response.

BTC and altcoins are still under pressure. US inflation has risen back to 4.2%, and the market has clearly priced in 'the Fed will stay hawkish for longer'. That's why today, we saw significant sell-offs not just in crypto, but also in gold, S&P 500, and Nasdaq. The market has entered a pessimistic mode again. This is why I said let's not jump into bullish expectations just yet. But here's the interesting part: during these times, on-chain data starts to approach the bottom zones. Right now, more than half of the circulating Bitcoin is at a loss! Historically, this data is usually seen in the final stages of bear markets. But this doesn't mean 'a rally is coming tomorrow'. I still believe there's a chance for one last sharp drop. ETF outflows continue, the macro side is weak, and the risk of war is still looming. The Iran-US tension, Israel-Lebanon line, oil, and inflation pressure... all of these are dampening risk appetite. However, at the same time, it's crucial to note that traditional finance firms on Wall Street are starting to approach crypto more aggressively. So, while fear may be growing in the short term, the system isn't abandoning crypto in the long run. I still think we are in a significant bear market. But some of the biggest opportunities in crypto history have often emerged during these times. $BTC $ETH $SOL

Today, the crypto market has started to speak a bit clearer: 60K held on the first test, but the reaction coming in isn't strong enough yet. $BTC has pulled back to the 62.5K zone, and the market is still pricing in the question: "is this a dip or just a temporary bounce?" The bad news of the day came from the Humanity Protocol side. After a $32 million private key hack, the $H token crashed over 80%. In a bear season, news like this really messes with the psychology of altcoin investors.

There was a significant shift on the Bitcoin front today. Last week, the market was completely gripped by fear: - the expectation was hovering around 57.5K - everyone was talking about 'Black Monday' - the timeline was in full-blown crash mode. But with Monday came a bit of a change. The 60K support held strong in its first major test, and the market experienced a serious short squeeze. Moreover, this move doesn’t seem to be solely driven by spot trading. Saylor's Strategy company re-upped on $BTC: 1550 BTC ≈ 98 million dollars. On Tom Lee's side: a $213 million buy for $ETH just came in. I think this is a crucial detail. Because last week, there was this narrative of 'institutions are fleeing'. Now, we’re starting to see large buys again. Investors taking profits from the US markets might flow into crypto! Additionally, there are significant changes on the Polymarket side. The likelihood of Bitcoin hitting 57.5K in June is starting to drop. The chances of hitting 65K are rising again. This tells us: the market might be stepping away from a direct collapse scenario and could accept 60K as support. But the critical point here is the 64K-65K zone. If BTC gets rejected here, the 60K support will be tested again. And second tests are usually more dangerous. 🚨🚨🚨 So, personally, I think it's too early to say 'the bottom is definitely in.' But still, the fact that 60K held in the first test was significant for the market. This week, with the CPI data coming in, it looks like the real direction will become clearer. 👀

Bitcoin has dipped to 60K and right now the market is completely focused on the Monday opening. What's the difference between this drop and February? Back in February, when $BTC hit 60K, there was still strong buying sentiment on the institutional side. Now, however, ETF exits, negative momentum, and macro pressure are weighing on the market all at once. "The 60K level may be the same, but the market psychology is completely different." Meanwhile, Peter Schiff's declaration of a "crypto red Monday" has amplified the fear, but I think the market is already in maximum fear mode. The key issue: how will we react at 60K? For an upward move, a strong close above 60K + a buyback at 64K/65K is needed; otherwise, this is just a temporary bounce. Because technically: - RSI is in the oversold zone - the market is heavily short - Fear & Greed is at low levels. This keeps the potential for a sharp short-term reaction on the table. But at the same time, momentum is still weak. Especially on Polymarket, the 57.5K probability has risen to 57%, indicating that traders are still pricing in downside risk. This week we also have: - US CPI (to be announced on Wednesday - If it comes in high, the pressure for the Fed not to cut rates increases, which would be bad for BTC.) - ECB interest rate decision - PPI - Unemployment data coming up. I still believe that the reaction from 60K is significant, but the real story will be whether the market can sustain that reaction. 👀

Fear is growing in the crypto market. $BTC is holding below 61K while altcoins are facing an even tougher situation. 60 grand is on the horizon. We've been talking about most of these moves for weeks. When we lost 65K, the market structure was already seriously damaged. Investors are losing hope. - "crypto is done" - "altcoins won't recover again" messages are starting to pile up. Historically, the market tends to approach a bottom during these times. But today, I think the most critical issue is the weakness on the ETH side. Because $ETH is not just dropping anymore; it's also losing strength against BTC. Investors are aggressively dumping everything high-risk right now. The most striking event today was on the Zcash side. After a critical vulnerability found by Claude AI, ZEC officially crashed. The emergence of a security flaw that went unnoticed for 4 years has sparked serious trust issues in the market. Interestingly, in this atmosphere of fear, we saw a positive inflow into ETH ETFs for the first time in a long while. This could be the most important detail in the market right now! As exits from BTC ETFs continue, there was an inflow of about 19 million dollars into Ethereum ETFs. For the first time in a long while, we're seeing a selective risk-taking sign from the institutional side. For now, the market is still in a bear season. Fear is still very high. But don't forget this: The strongest rallies in crypto history often started after people completely lost hope.