BitHappy

An arbitrage opportunity:

1/ $sUSDat price $0.78;

2/ $STRC pre-market price $81;

3/ Their ratio is around 100:1.02;

4/ sUSDat can be redeemed for STRC.

That is, buy sUSDat, wait for the market to open. If the STRC price does not fall below 75, your profit will be around 3–4%.

Of course, you can reverse the operation before 10 minutes. However, the official arbitrage entry has already been closed!

The above is for information sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice!

BitHappy in continuous evolution

The light boat has already passed through ten thousand layers of mountains—we’re going to make it through!

This round was done beautifully. Micro-strategy, 😭

Brief summary:

1/ USD reserve policy: $2.55 billion in cash reserves, which can only be used to pay preferred stock dividends and interest, and at least 12 months’ worth of funds must be kept to ensure stable payments;

2/ $STRC dividend policy: raise STRC’s annualized dividend yield to 12%, and adjust monthly flexibly based on market conditions, aiming to keep its price long-term stable around $99–$100;

3/ Digital Credit Securities share repurchase plan: authorize up to $1 billion to buy back various preferred shares the company issued (preferably STRC) to reduce future interest-payment burdens;

4/ $MSTR common stock repurchase plan: authorize up to $1 billion to buy back its own common shares (MSTR stock) to enhance shareholder value when the share price is undervalued;

5/ BTC monetization plan: allow selling Bitcoin, but only for specific purposes such as topping up USD reserves, paying dividends, or supporting repurchases—and it must be approved by the board of directors to protect long-term Bitcoin holdings.

If you still hold YT of sUSDat, maybe now is a good time to consider exiting~

Big shots used two days to sell 3.45 million PT-sUSDat and directly pulled the APY to 23%.

Before that, the APY was only 10%.

Right now, this big shot still holds about 11.45 million apxUSD and sUSDat in total.

According to data shown on the OKX DEX panel, the big shot’s cost is around $0.97, while the current value of these two tokens is now $0.75 each due to the STRC drop.

That means the big shot is currently down by about $2.51 million.

Worst of all, he only bought 1.2 million before depegging.

The following 10 million came from:

1/ Minting close to 4 million sUSDat—also at a very high cost.

2/ Buying throughout June, all the way until June 17—about 6 million in total—with prices around $0.96 and $0.97.

But when it fell to $0.8 and $0.7, he didn’t buy. Poor guy.

If this big shot sees this post, don’t panic and dump at market price!

Hold steady—we can win,😭

Based on address analysis, this big shot is also the type who really likes playing depegging arbitrage, and he even bought reUSDe and USDe.

Big shot address: 0x1ecb6d03b5dda3696f40643c3099cd172dfc1c87

Now $apxUSD and $sUSDat are strongly correlated~

Even though there’s no tracking address, this LP’s 0.3% tax feels like something Apyx would do.

Borrow liquidity and still siphon off a cut, 🤡

I haven’t verified whether the LP’s fee was added by Apyx itself, but that’s its reputation!

STRC Cut or not cut?

1/ How strong is your belief in BTC’s long-term outlook and the Strategy mode?

If you’re still firmly optimistic about BTC’s long-term trend and believe the company can continue managing leverage and financing properly, then continuing to hold and focusing on collecting dividends may still be a reasonable choice (i.e., betting on the company’s Stretch mechanism + a BTC rebound);

If your conviction is wavering, or you’re worried about further declines, then you should consider gradually reducing your position or exiting.

2/ What is your investment horizon and what funding needs do you have?

If you plan to hold long-term (for years) and aren’t急着 to use the money, you can tolerate greater volatility, making it better suited to focusing on collecting the currently higher dividends;

If you need the funds in the short or mid term, or you psychologically can’t handle a deeper drawdown, then reduce your position in batches and slowly lower your exposure.

3/ How much further loss can you tolerate?

If you can’t accept further declines, then cut losses or reduce your position significantly;

If you can accept it and are willing to hold long-term, then keep observing.

Optional approaches:

1/ Continue holding, focus on collecting dividends, and wait for the price to recover: suitable for those with high risk tolerance and long-term optimism about BTC; the risk is that the timing and extent of the recovery are both uncertain;

2/ Reduce in batches and gradually lower your position size: lock in part of the loss, while still keeping some upside potential and interest/dividend income;

3/ Exit fully or mostly: if you’re already extremely anxious about the current discount and the uncertainty, then cut losses and reassess afterward;

4/ Do nothing for now and observe for a period: decide next steps based on the next dividend announcement, the company’s earnings report, and BTC’s price action.

Unfortunately, there’s no standard answer, 😭

Xiaomi hits another low!

Recently, I checked out Xiaomi's entrepreneurial thoughts and even rented a Xiaomi car for a few days; overall, it was a solid experience.

Based on my appreciation for their products, I started to ponder whether to scoop up some Xiaomi stocks, so I did a bit of research and had a chat with a friend.

My friend's viewpoint was roughly this:

Xiaomi (part of the Kingsoft group) has a culture that's all about engineering mindset, focusing on perfecting the product rather than actively "trading" on the capital markets.

Their reluctance to trade stems from:

1/ Worries that in the current regulatory and public opinion environment, excessive capital maneuvers could backfire;

2/ The engineer culture itself isn't inclined to tell stories (except for self-media) or manage expectations.

So, Xiaomi seems to be more about "getting the product right," and short-term price fluctuations aren't their top priority.

From a market perspective, although Xiaomi cars are expected to start heading overseas in the second half of this year to next, the stock is riding on expectations, and the current market sentiment towards Xiaomi isn't particularly strong.

Additionally, Lei Jun/Xiaomi's overall reputation is somewhat negative, which may impact investor sentiment (though most of the content I see on Douyin is positive, the overall public opinion environment is inconsistent).

Overall, my friend's takeaway is: the product is good, but expectations aren't strong; the culture is stable but not trading-oriented; hence, short-term stock performance might not be too dazzling.

So, I didn’t buy last time and have been sitting on the sidelines.

This is just information sharing and doesn’t constitute any investment advice!

Continuously evolving BitHappy

At this point, I can only say I've learned another lesson:

Even when I was doing my "position management" and clearly categorized the
$STRC
related assets as high risk.

During that time, I managed to arbitrage and make a small profit, but once I really got in and got stuck, I still couldn't execute my stop-loss according to plan.

Now I'm not sure whether to cut my losses or wait until the end of the month to see STRC's interest rate situation?

From what I've observed lately, every time there's a pump, funds immediately rush out; but when it dips, it rarely actually breaks down.

That means a lot of folks, just like me, aren't sticking to strict stop-losses? 😭

Elon Musk Biography

Maybe Musk isn't a genius; he just knows how to squeeze his employees like some bosses do back home～

The book doesn’t really showcase genius, but it does depict a madman.

If genius is on the left and madness on the right, then Musk is the genius, but the book doesn’t capture that brilliance.

If we only summarize Musk's success from the book, there are five points:

0/ Pipe Dream: Whether it's PayPal’s ideal model (solving payment issues/similar to Alipay), or SpaceX, Tesla, GROK, Hyperloop (less described in the book), Neuralink, they’re all ahead of their time concepts. Other than PayPal's execution being tied to him, it seems like the employees contributed more, maybe that's the underlying drive in Wall Street or Silicon Valley;

1/ First Principles: Not introduced by Musk, but he's the most famous executor of it;

2/ Five-Step Method: Summarized by Musk from his ventures at SpaceX and Tesla;

3/ Extreme Employee Exploitation: Whether it’s treating employees as disposable tools or setting unattainable work goals, on the bright side, it’s about igniting employee potential and testing their work attitude; on the dark side, it’s pure exploitation;

4/ Extreme Self-Exploitation: He doesn't just squeeze his employees, he also pushes himself hard, which is way better than local bosses who only exploit their staff.

Keep an eye on crypto-stock hedging～

There are plenty of yield farming opportunities and lending plays on the spot market, while you can also go short on contracts to capture funding fees!

In the future, LP returns from crypto and stocks are likely to see a massive surge.

We’re currently in the phase of grabbing user share, and various subsidies will keep rolling out.

For instance, the Binance bStocks subsidy launched today at $LISTA , with collateral at $SPCXB offering an annualized yield of up to 357%, and you can also lend out USD1 and U for earning interest.

This is just information sharing and does not constitute any investment advice!

Continuously evolving BitHappy

If you're unlucky enough to be holding $msUSD and $msY, you might find these stablecoins heading to zero!

msY has been completely borrowed out in the Morpho pool for several days, with borrowers not paying back at a whopping 137% APY.

Then, a few hours ago, Accountable announced they were cutting ties.

The Future of Currency: From the Gold Standard to Blockchain

Recommended for those investing in crypto or anyone interested in the crypto space!

This book was published in 2018 and can be seen as a "testament" to Bitcoin, but about 60% of it discusses currency itself, also covering Hayek and Keynes.

The most important takeaway for me was the distinction between soft currencies and hard currencies (all soft currencies are just passing through, hoarding hard currencies is the core goal).

In terms familiar to us, this means: all altcoins aim to swap your Bitcoin out of your hands.

A key indicator mentioned in the book is the stock-to-flow ratio (only if this ratio is sufficiently high is it worth holding long-term).

Similarly, this ratio almost perfectly predicted one of the most criticized issues in the last round of altcoins: high market cap, low circulation, and ongoing inflation.

Had I read this book back then, it likely would have helped me avoid traps like ARB and other high market cap, low circulation tokens.

Besides the concept of hard currency, the book also accurately forecasted several development directions for Bitcoin post-2018.

For example:

1/ Bitcoin's L2;

2/ Collateralizing Bitcoin to issue other tokens (stablecoins/lending);

3/ Central banks purchasing Bitcoin as reserves.

The book also logically explains what Bitcoin can and cannot do.

For instance:

1/ It cannot be popularized as a payment network (due to block capacity limits and node operation costs), but will be popularized as a settlement network (off-chain calculations, on-chain settlements).

2/ Bitcoin's anonymity is actually pseudo-anonymity; each transaction can be traced back to specific individuals. To some extent, this reflects the existence of privacy lanes and mixing demand, which can be thought of in light of the recent surge in privacy projects since the second half of last year.

This book shattered some of my misconceptions about Bitcoin and taught me a lot about investment philosophies.

If I had seriously read it before the bear market in '22, I probably wouldn't have experienced a significant drawdown.

Since I lack an economics background, the first 60% was a bit of a slog, but it was definitely worth it!

Last night, STRC broke below $90. This morning, some buddies in the group mentioned that funds might be flowing into SATA, which follows a similar model.

$STRC and $SATA are essentially perpetual preferred shares supported by the reserve of $BTC . They don’t fall under traditional bonds/debt but are equity instruments of a preferred nature.

Right now, there are three key differences:

1/ Dividends: SATA at 13%, STRC at 11.5%;

2/ Balance Sheet: SATA is almost debt-free, while STRC includes convertible bonds and more;

3/ Dividend sustainability: SATA has cash to sustain for about 18 months; STRC has around 6 months;

From an anchoring perspective: when STRC is priced at $89, 100/89 × 11.5% ≈ 13%, which is close to SATA, hence STRC is in a reasonable range around $90.

However, it’s important to note that STRC’s dividends are adjustable.

Comparing balance sheets, SATA is cleaner; but in terms of scale, STRC is larger.

Analyzing dividend sustainability, if we only consider cash reserves, SATA is clearly more stable; but if we factor in BTC’s comprehensive coverage ability, both can sustain dividends for decades.

But it’s also clear that STRC urgently needs to play its cards right: increase dividends and boost cash reserves.

This is just an information share and does not constitute any investment advice!

Continuously evolving BitHappy

What a surprise! The ROI on the $SPCX LP I added yesterday is actually 18%!

Didn’t expect that the most profitable way in this SpaceX IPO wave is: swing trade $USDC

Everyone check the new listing amounts on each platform, some refunds have been processed.

Crypto space SpaceX IPO worst-case scenario～

1/ If the opening price is more than a 20% premium over the IPO price, we’ll initiate refunds;

2/ If it's below 20%, we’ll scoop up some spot and arrange it for us, plus take a 5% platform fee on the side.

Let’s hope it doesn’t play out like this!

Some pals have already hedged early and are walking away with losses, 🥺

Opportunities in the crypto space regarding SpaceX launches:

1/ Timing the short: There will definitely be hedging strategies, especially with big sell-offs expected when stocks settle before the US market opens;

2/ Leverage selling C: Major channels have absorbed a massive amount of USDC, and those who stocked up earlier have already made profits. As stocks settle, expect selling pressure on USDC;

3/ Cross-chain arbitrage: Various messages confirm SpaceX's presence across different chains, leading to fluctuations and price discrepancies in liquidity;

4/ Providing liquidity: Trades may happen on exchanges, but as long as it's tradable on-chain, LPs will see volume. The LP returns from this big truck are likely to be solid;

5/ Join various WeChat groups to grab red envelopes～

However, all of these come with risks, except grabbing red envelopes, which might just get you kicked out of the chat, 🤣

Tips: I heard that liking has some unique animation effects!

The above is just information sharing and does not constitute any investment advice!

Evolving BitHappy

Wallet homepage, Binance's SpaceX IPO is live now!

The allocation still follows the Alpha distribution. If you have the An Xiaojiang badge, you can snag an extra 50K allocation.

Points distribution rules:

1/ Alpha > 0, you get 20K allocation;

2/ Alpha > 40, you get 100K allocation;

3/ Alpha > 100, you get 200K allocation;

4/ Alpha > 200, you get 500K allocation.

Underwriting fee is 5%, and the premium cap is 30%, meaning if the IPO price jumps to 30%, it will trigger a refund.

True crypto new listing big rig. So the question is, are we swapping positions or adding to our bags?

This is just information sharing and does not constitute any investment advice.

Continuously evolving BitHappy

About SpaceX's IPO:

I was initially planning to keep watching, but after Bybit shut down, the futures prices started climbing again.

Putting aside the FOMO feelings, let's break it down logically: the rise in futures prices means that as long as you hedge, you can make a profit. I’m guessing that after Kraken closes, the futures prices will keep going up.

Right now, the biggest question is how to allocate the new issuance quota.

It's already known that the 1:1 channels for funds over 1M have closed, and there are rumors that Bybit is also doing 1:1 allocation.

According to calculations from group members, the cost price is $141.75, and a 20% increase puts it at $168.75. So, if the futures price exceeds $168.75, it’s a guaranteed win.

There are two hedging strategies: one is exchange futures, and the other is the prediction market.

Most of my pals can only manage vague hedges, but this time, there’s not much to worry about regarding price manipulation, considering it’s such a well-known project. Still, be careful when choosing a hedging platform, like Binance!

Also, even if the pre-purchase on Kraken is successful, it can still be canceled.

Are you guys going to hedge? Or will you suffocate for your dreams?

This is just an information share, and it doesn't constitute any investment advice!

Continuously evolving BitHappy

Various news speculations suggest Mythos is dropping tomorrow!

For security reasons, everything that can be withdrawn on-chain has been pulled, and all authorizations have been revoked.

Since this afternoon, the de-pegging alerts have been non-stop, likely because many traders are taking a loss and bailing.

I recommend everyone at least revoke their authorizations!

Talking about stocks, my buddy says:

1/ The A-shares are like memes, just looking for bagholders;

2/ Hong Kong stocks are like knockoffs, they occasionally pump the price;

3/ US stocks are like a big pie, they keep mooning and have a cyclical nature.

Is this a solid summary?