Analysts are deeply divided on the 2026 outlook, ranging from a drop to $60,000 to a surge to $250,000, but the immediate market direction hinges on the massive December 26th expiration event.
🔹 One analyst warns of a drop to $60,000-$65,000 due to miners selling off/exhausting ETF, directly contradicting Tom Lee $200,000 forecast. Galaxy call the market too chaotic, with equal odds for option at $50,000 or $250,000 by the end of 2026.
🔸 The $23 billion options expiration event on December 26th is key. Leading funds are aggressively hedging within the $85,000-$90,000 range. Once these contracts expire, the holding pressure will disappear, potentially causing a sinking beach ball effect pushing prices back to $100,000.
🔹 Despite the potential, ETF demand is quite weak with $500 million in outflows last week, holding prices back ahead of expiration.
With $23 billion in option holding the price at $85,000, will the December 26 expiration trigger a Gamma Flush breakout to $100,000, or will the lack of ETF demand expose a lack of natural support?
Trading Insight_research and information are for informational purposes only and are not investment advice. Please read carefully before making any decisions.
