I warned you about the $82K bull trap. I warned you about the $66K fake recovery.
That was never the real move.
That was the market trying to shake people out before it showed its hand.
Right now, Bitcoin is still sitting near the same battleground I’ve been watching for weeks, with BTC around $60,151 and flagging $60K as the key psychological and technical line. If that floor gives way, the next major downside area many traders are already watching is around $50K.
At the same time, the mood across risk assets is getting tighter, with U.S. equity and tech funds seeing fresh outflows and traders pricing in more Fed pressure than they were a few weeks ago.
That is why I am not chasing the first bounce. I want to see the weak hands break first. I want the fake recovery. I want the trapped longs to believe the bottom is already in. Then I want the flush. That is how real cycle lows are made, not with a clean V-shaped rescue, but with disappointment, failed support, and one more painful leg lower.
My road map from here still looks like this: $60K to $54K, then a bounce back toward $57K, then another drop to $51K, and if the panic really expands, $45K is the kind of level that can mark the final clearing event.
That does not mean I am bearish forever
It means I respect how this market bottoms. It usually does not reward the crowd that gets emotional at the first recovery candle.
The bigger picture is still intact for me.
Pressure Bitcoin is under from ETF outflows, with more than $2 billion in recent net outflows cited in one report and over $3.1 billion in 2026 so far in another, while Strategy’s rare sale and the wider rotation into AI and megacap IPOs have added to the headwinds.
That is exactly the kind of environment where the market makes people hate the asset right before it starts rebuilding its base.
And that is the part people never learn.
The bottom does not announce itself with comfort. It announces itself with pain. First the bull trap, then the fake recovery, then the flush. After that, the real opportunity begins. That is when the market stops punishing patience and starts rewarding conviction. If the path plays out the way I think it will, the move from fear to disbelief will be violent, and the next major leg higher will not look clean at all.
It will look earned ☝🏼