apt

Codzienne udostępnianie najnowszych danych na łańcuchu 20 stycznia 2026 roku
#链上数据 #APT #solana #SUI #AVAX
📊 Jeden, ogólny tabelaryczny porównanie danych (na podstawie danych z 24h)
🔍 Dwa, kluczowe wymiary analizy
1. Skala ekosystemu i płynność
Solana przoduje we wszystkich aspektach takich jak TVL, skala stablecoinów, wolumen transakcji DEX, opłaty na łańcuchu itp., z najwyższą aktywnością ekosystemu.
Avalanche i Sui znajdują się w drugiej lidze, z TVL na poziomie około 1 miliarda dolarów.
Aptos ma najmniejszą skalę, ale wartość rynkowa stablecoinów jest stosunkowo wysoka (może być pod wpływem pojedynczych projektów).
2. Efektywność przychodów i opłat
Opłaty na łańcuchu Solana są najwyższe, ale udział przychodów na łańcuchu jest niski (około 9,6%), a większość opłat trafia do weryfikatorów.

Introduction
Aptos ($APT ) is currently trading near a critical structural support zone, with price hovering around $1.61 after an extended period of bearish pressure. This region represents a high-risk, high-reward decision area, where historical demand, volume concentration, and long-term technical levels converge.In this technical analysis, we evaluate #APT using a multi-layered technical framework, incorporating market structure, Fibonacci retracement levels, exponential moving averages (EMA), RSI, MACD, Ichimoku Cloud, Volume Profile, and On-Balance Volume (OBV). The objective is to determine whether the current price action signals seller exhaustion and potential accumulation, or if the market remains vulnerable to further downside continuation.This report aims to provide traders and analysts with a clear technical roadmap, highlighting key support and resistance levels, momentum behavior, and conditional scenarios to navigate the current market environment effectively.
(Fibonacci + RSI + MACD + EMA + Volume Profile + Ichimoku + OBV)
Current Price: $1.61
Timeframe: Daily (with a broader weekly perspective)
Swing High: $19.90
Swing Low: $1.30
⸻
1️⃣ Exponential Moving Averages (EMA 50 / 100 / 200) 📈
• EMA 50: Price is trading well below it → strong short-term bearish pressure
• EMA 100: Acts as dynamic resistance above price
• EMA 200: Price is trading slightly above / near it → long-term structure is fragile but still valid
📌 Technical implications:
• Holding above EMA 200 keeps long-term accumulation scenario intact
• Reclaiming EMA 50 would be the first major bullish signal
• Losing EMA 200 confirms structural weakness
⸻
2️⃣ Volume Profile (VPVR) 📊
• Highest volume concentration is located between $1.45 – $1.60
• This zone represents:
• Strong historical demand
• High liquidity participation
📌 Confluence between Volume Profile + Fibonacci support highlights this area as a key accumulation zone
⸻
3️⃣ Fibonacci Extensions (Upside Projection) 📐
If a confirmed rebound occurs:
• 1.272 Extension: ~$3.10
• 1.618 Extension: ~$4.80
📌 These targets become valid only after reclaiming key retracement levels.
⸻
4️⃣ Ichimoku Cloud ☁️
• Price is trading below the Ichimoku cloud
• The cloud is thick and bearish → strong resistance overhead
📌 Signals:
• Break above the cloud = medium-term trend reversal
• Remaining below = bearish bias remains dominant
⸻
5️⃣ On-Balance Volume (OBV) 📊
• OBV is moving sideways with slight stabilization
• No aggressive distribution visible
📌 Suggests seller exhaustion and early accumulation behavior
⸻
6️⃣ Stochastic RSI ⚡
• Indicator is deep in oversold territory
• Historically effective for spotting relief bounces
📌 Oversold Stoch RSI + strong support = higher probability of a short-term rebound
⸻
7️⃣ ADX (Average Directional Index) 📉
• ADX is declining
• Indicates weakening trend strength and potential consolidation
📌 Rising ADX with breakout = start of a new directional move
⸻
8️⃣ Market Structure (Price Structure) 🧱
• APT has been in a prolonged macro downtrend since its cycle high
• Current price action shows base-building behavior near cycle lows
• The market is testing a last major structural support zone
➡️ Market structure remains technically valid as long as price holds above $1.45
⸻
9️⃣ Fibonacci Retracement – Detailed Levels 📐
0% $19.90 Cycle high
23.6% $15.30 Major resistance
38.2% $11.80 Bear-market resistance
50% $10.60 Psychological level
61.8% $7.90 Trend reversal zone
78.6% $3.20 Major resistance
100% $1.30 Structural low
📌 Current price $1.61 is trading just above the structural bottom region
⸻
🔟 RSI Analysis (Momentum Perspective) 📉
• Daily RSI: ~30–34
• Near oversold conditions
• Selling pressure is losing strength
📌 RSI reclaiming 40 would signal early recovery momentum
⸻
1️⃣1️⃣ MACD Analysis (Trend Strength) 📊
• MACD remains in negative territory
• Histogram contraction suggests bearish momentum is fading
📌 A bullish crossover would confirm early trend reversal
⸻
1️⃣2️⃣ Bullish Scenario (Conditional Upside Case) 🟢
✔️ Conditions:
• Price holds above $1.45
• RSI moves above 40
• MACD bullish crossover
• EMA 50 reclaimed
🎯 Targets:
• $2.10
• $3.20
• $4.80
⸻
1️⃣3️⃣ Bearish Scenario (Breakdown Case) 🔴
❌ Daily close below $1.45:
• Downside targets:
• $1.30
• Potential new cycle lows if selling accelerates
📉 Confirms bearish continuation and loss of structure
⸻
🧠 Professional Conclusion 🧠
APT is trading at a high-risk, high-reward accumulation zone near its historical lows.
Multiple technical indicators suggest bearish momentum exhaustion, while volume behavior hints at early accumulation.
Holding above $1.45–$1.60 keeps the probability of a technical recovery alive.
A confirmed breakdown below this zone would invalidate the recovery thesis.
#BTC走势分析 #MarketRebound