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Bloomberg reported that Anthropic unveiled Claude Opus 5, a new AI model designed to handle workplace tasks adeptly and affordably, approaching the capabilities of its most advanced offering Fable 5 in many categories but at half the price.
Anthropic said it expects Opus 5 to serve as the default option for many day-to-day office needs as customers grow more cost conscious and competition increases from China. AI developers including OpenAI, Meta and SpaceXAI are competing to offer more cost-efficient models as businesses scrutinize AI spending.
Anthropic head of research product management Dianne Penn said the company is responding to enterprise feedback about how to generate more value. The emphasis on affordability grows as China gains ground, with Moonshot's Kimi K3 outperforming all rivals except Fable 5 and OpenAI's GPT-5.6 on overall capability.
Opus 5 features improved abilities to check its own work, conduct scientific research and streamline coding. The model is nearly as capable as Anthropic's Mythos 5 in finding cybersecurity vulnerabilities but remains substantially behind in exploiting them. Anthropic said it intentionally avoided training Opus 5 on cyber tasks, though the model improved on these tasks through general capability gains.
Opus 5's classifiers are proportionally less restrictive than Fable 5's, meaning safeguards will intervene less often and block a more limited range of tasks. Anthropic conducted rigorous evaluations alongside private sector and government partners.
Penn said OpenAI's breach of Hugging Face's internal systems is a reminder of AI's rapidly improving capabilities and the need to continuously update evaluations and security systems.

Bloomberg reported that the selloff in SpaceX shares has driven the stock near a level implying investors are assigning no value to its AI business, according to Morgan Stanley analysts.
SpaceX has had a rocky trading debut after its record $86 billion IPO in mid-June. Shares initially surged nearly 50% in the first three sessions but have tumbled since, touching a low of $110.85, or 18% below the IPO price, earlier this week.
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas wrote that the current disconnect between increasingly bearish investor sentiment and largely unchanged fundamentals creates an attractive entry point. Jonas has a $300 price target, with more than 50% ascribed to SpaceX's AI segment.
Jonas said many investors expect the stock to fall further to $100 when a lockup on shares unlocks next month, allowing insiders to sell. At that level, investors would be pricing in zero or even negative value from the AI segment. He wrote that most investors significantly discount Grok and Cursor, ascribing zero or negative value to AI given high capex requirements and uncertain economics.
The selloff comes as investors broadly rotate away from tech firms committing hundreds of billions to AI. A shaky macroeconomic backdrop and elevated US-Iran tensions have boosted oil prices, souring sentiment for risk assets.
Despite the selloff, nearly 80% of analysts covering SpaceX recommend buying shares, according to Bloomberg data. The average price target of about $232 implies the stock will more than double. Analysts from Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Citigroup and JPMorgan all have buy-equivalent ratings.
Jonas, best known as a longtime Tesla bull, stepped away from autos last year to cover AI and humanoid robots. He reiterated his buy rating, saying SpaceX remains uniquely positioned across launch, connectivity, and AI.

SpaceX’s Starship launched to space and deployed upgraded Starlink satellites in its first major test since the company’s blockbuster initial public offering, according to Bloomberg. The flight marks a key step for SpaceX’s next-generation rocket and its satellite internet business.

Oil settled above $100 per barrel for the first time since May after Houthi rebels targeted Saudi ships in the Red Sea, the US carried out its 13th consecutive night of military action against Iran, and President Trump signaled he is not yet ready to negotiate. Iran claimed it targeted US assets in Bahrain and Jordan in retaliation. Four people were killed in Thursday's strikes on Iran, and an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps facility was partly damaged according to Iranian state media. Iran pushed back on reports that it had rejected a ceasefire offer, blaming the US for the escalating conflict. Trump claimed any damage to ships would be paid for with frozen Iranian funds — a claim Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said sets an "incendiary precedent." Bitcoin's FOMC week — the most consequential Federal Reserve meeting since the June 17 decision that triggered six weeks of ETF outflows — now arrives with oil at triple digits, the SPR at a 43-year low, Section 301 tariffs on 99.4% of US imports in effect, and Capital Economics forecasting 75 basis points of additional Fed rate hikes.
Thirteen Consecutive Nights — The Conflict Has No Ceasefire Horizon
The 13th consecutive night of US military action against Iran removes any remaining ambiguity about the conflict's trajectory. The June 19 MOU that constituted a ceasefire collapsed on July 7 when Trump declared it over following mutual airstrikes. Since then, the US has struck Iran every single night for nearly two weeks — targeting bridges in Hormozgan province, the Chabahar maritime control tower, IRGC facilities, and military infrastructure across southern Iran. Iran has responded by targeting US assets in Bahrain and Jordan, maintaining Houthi operations against Red Sea shipping, and keeping Hormuz transits near their lowest levels since the conflict began.
Trump signaling he is not yet ready to negotiate is the most market-significant single statement of the week — more important than any individual strike or Iranian counterstrike. All prior market rallies triggered by Iran-related diplomacy signals — the June 19 MOU, Monday's Reuters ceasefire proposal report — were predicated on the assumption that both sides retained some interest in a negotiated resolution. A Trump statement that he is not yet ready to negotiate removes that assumption for the immediate term and reprices the probability of near-term Hormuz normalization from low to near-zero.
Oil Above $100 — The Inflation Threshold the FOMC Cannot Ignore
Oil settling above $100 per barrel for the first time since May is the most acute single macro data point Bitcoin has faced in the current recovery. The $100 threshold is not arbitrary — it is the psychological and analytical level at which oil's inflationary impact becomes unavoidable for central bank communication. When the FOMC meets July 28-29 with oil above $100, the committee faces a fundamentally different communication challenge than when oil was at $65-70 during the June ceasefire period that made the June CPI's 3.8% reading constructive.
The mechanism is direct and compounding. Oil above $100 means July CPI — due mid-August — will show energy-driven reacceleration from June's 3.8% reading back toward 4%+ or higher. That reading arrives before the September FOMC meeting at which rate hike probability stands at 63%. The SPR at 311.4 million barrels — its lowest since 1983 — means the government's primary policy tool for capping an oil price spike has less capacity than at any point in four decades. And Section 301 tariffs now covering 99.4% of US imports add a second simultaneous inflationary channel — import cost push — on top of the energy-driven demand-pull inflation from Hormuz.
The triple-digit oil price, depleted SPR, and tariff-driven import cost inflation arriving simultaneously into FOMC week is the most adverse macro configuration for Bitcoin's recovery thesis since the April Liberation Day tariff shock that triggered the current correction.
The Red Sea Expansion — Houthis Target Saudi Ships
Houthi rebels targeting Saudi ships in the Red Sea is the geographic expansion of the conflict's shipping disruption beyond the Strait of Hormuz. Hormuz had been the primary chokepoint — carrying approximately one-fifth of global oil and gas supplies before the conflict began, now reduced to eight confirmed transits per day as of July 16's three-week low. The Red Sea is the second critical global shipping chokepoint, carrying approximately 12% of global trade including significant volumes of oil from Saudi Arabia and other Gulf producers routed around Hormuz.
Simultaneous disruption of both Hormuz and the Red Sea creates a compounding supply disruption that no single alternative routing can fully absorb. Ships that avoid Hormuz by going around southern Iran still face Red Sea Houthi interdiction on the route toward the Suez Canal. The Houthi targeting of Saudi ships specifically raises the risk of Saudi production disruption — if Saudi infrastructure becomes a target, oil supply risk expands beyond transit disruption into production disruption, which would be a substantially more severe price driver than the transit closure currently producing triple-digit oil.
Trump's claim that damage to ships will be paid for with frozen Iranian funds — and Iran's response that this sets an "incendiary precedent" — represents a new financial escalation layer on top of the military strikes, further reducing the probability of a near-term diplomatic resolution.
The Bitcoin Framework Into FOMC — Five Simultaneous Headwinds
Bitcoin heading into the July 28-29 FOMC meeting now faces five simultaneous macro headwinds that were not all present simultaneously at any prior point in the current cycle. Oil above $100 is the newest and most acute. The 13th consecutive night of US-Iran strikes with Trump not ready to negotiate removes the ceasefire optionality that had been supporting risk assets on diplomatic signal days. Section 301 tariffs on 99.4% of US imports add goods price inflation to energy price inflation. Capital Economics' 75 basis point rate hike forecast against the market's 40 basis point pricing represents an unresolved macro divergence that the FOMC meeting will begin to clarify. And the SPR at a 43-year low removes the government's ability to buffer the oil shock through strategic reserve releases.
Against those five headwinds, the structural support that has been building throughout the correction remains intact: exchange supply at a nine-year low, 79% LTH supply at a record, six-day ETF inflow streak totaling $930 million, whale accumulation ongoing for two months, and the 200-week SMA at $62,873 holding every test since June. The question FOMC week will answer is whether structural on-chain support is sufficient to hold Bitcoin above $65,000 — and specifically above the $65,000-$65,500 confirmation range analysts identified — against the most adverse macro configuration of the recovery period.
The Daniela Hathorn framework from Capital.com identified $63,000 as the critical support floor where buyers have repeatedly stepped in. With oil above $100 and Trump signaling no negotiations, the probability of Bitcoin testing that floor before the FOMC decision on July 29 has increased materially from where it stood on Tuesday when the six-day ETF streak was extending and chip stocks were rebounding.

Bitcoin's options market on Deribit has developed a striking concentration of bullish positioning: the $70,000 and $72,000 call strikes have together accumulated a notional open interest of nearly $5 billion — approximately 18% of the platform's total $28 billion in BTC options open interest — making them the two most popular contracts on the exchange. At the $70,000 strike, approximately 39,000 calls are active versus 3,800 puts. At the $72,000 strike, roughly 37,900 calls stand against only 1,200 puts. The heavily skewed call-to-put ratios reflect an unambiguously bullish positioning structure. But the catalyst that Orbit Markets identified as a primary driver of this positioning — Clarity Act optimism — is fading rapidly. Polymarket odds of the Clarity Act being signed into law in 2026 fell to 38% from 51% earlier this week after Senate Majority Leader John Thune said he does not expect the Senate to pass the bill before August recess.
The $5 Billion Structure — Bull Call Spreads Dominate
The $5 billion notional open interest concentration at two adjacent strikes is not random accumulation — it reflects a specific and deliberate options strategy executed at scale. Laevitas identified the dominant structure as a bull call spread: buying the $70,000 call and simultaneously selling the $72,000 call. The bull call spread limits the buyer's maximum profit to the difference between the two strikes — $2,000 per Bitcoin — while reducing the net premium paid versus buying the $70,000 call outright. It is the classic options structure used when a trader has high conviction that price will reach a moderate upside target within a specific timeframe rather than an unlimited upside bet.
The scale of this structure is what makes it analytically significant. Laevitas noted that the bull call spread accounts for approximately 49% and 50% of total call open interest at the $70,000 and $72,000 strikes respectively — meaning roughly half of the $5 billion notional concentration at these two levels is a single coordinated strategic position rather than organic retail accumulation from thousands of individual trades. A single trader or coordinated group has built a position representing approximately $2.45 billion notional exposure specifically targeting Bitcoin reaching $70,000-$72,000 by the July 31 expiry.
A separate trader or group purchased a large number of $70,000 calls outright, paying $3.4 million in premium to gain pure upside exposure. Calendar spreads — designed to profit from volatility changes between short and near-term expiries — round out the notable recent trades, suggesting that sophisticated participants are also positioning for the BVIV's rise from 37.5% to 40% to continue or for the FOMC meeting to produce a significant volatility event.
The Clarity Act Catalyst — From 51% to 38% in One Week
Jimmy Yang, co-founder of Orbit Markets, identified the primary driver of the $70,000-$72,000 call concentration: "Earlier this month, we saw decent demand for BTC topside calls, with the 31 July $70,000 and $72,000 strikes being particularly popular. A lot of this positioning was driven by expectations that the CLARITY Act could be passed before the end of the month."
The Clarity Act — which would establish clear regulatory jurisdiction between the SEC and CFTC over digital assets — has been the most consequential pending piece of US crypto legislation since the Bitcoin ETF approvals. The White House's agreement to ethics package wording earlier this week had lifted Polymarket odds toward 51% for a 2026 signing. That optimism has now reversed sharply: Senate Majority Leader John Thune said he does not expect the Senate to pass the bill before the body adjourns for its August recess, sending Polymarket odds from 51% to 38% in approximately 24 hours.
Yang confirmed the market impact directly: "In the last 24 hours, the market has dialed back those expectations, leading to unwinding of some of these bullish bets." The unwinding of Clarity Act-driven $70,000-$72,000 call positions is the specific mechanism behind any Bitcoin weakness that cannot be fully explained by oil's move above $100 or the 13th consecutive night of US-Iran strikes — there is a second simultaneous headwind from regulatory optimism being repriced lower.
The Call-to-Put Ratio — What 10:1 and 32:1 Mean
The call-to-put ratios at the two concentrated strikes are the most direct measure of the options market's directional bias. At $70,000: 39,000 calls versus 3,800 puts is approximately a 10:1 call-to-put ratio. At $72,000: 37,900 calls versus 1,200 puts is approximately a 32:1 call-to-put ratio. These are not ratios that reflect a balanced market hedging against both upside and downside — they reflect a market with overwhelming directional conviction that Bitcoin will reach these levels within the July 31 expiry window.
The 32:1 ratio at $72,000 is particularly significant because the $72,000 strike is the short leg of the bull call spread — the level at which the spread's maximum profit is realized. A 32:1 call-to-put ratio at the profit ceiling of the dominant spread structure means the market is pricing essentially no downside hedging need at $72,000 within the July 31 window. Either the spread sellers are expressing confidence that $72,000 will not be reached — in which case they collect the premium from the spread buyers — or the call buyers are expressing confidence that $72,000 will be reached and the spread will pay out in full.
The July 31 Expiry — Four Trading Days and Five Macro Events
The July 31 expiry that the $70,000-$72,000 positioning targets is four trading days away — and those four days contain the most concentrated macro event calendar Bitcoin has faced in the current recovery. The FOMC decision arrives July 29. Big Tech earnings — Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon all reporting — arrive this week alongside Alphabet's results from Wednesday. Oil is above $100 with no ceasefire and Trump signaling he is not ready to negotiate. Section 301 tariffs on 99.4% of US imports went into effect Friday. The Clarity Act's Senate passage before August recess now looks unlikely at 38% Polymarket odds.
For the $70,000-$72,000 bull call spread to pay out by July 31, Bitcoin needs to rise approximately 7.7% from its current $64,971 to $70,000 — a move that would require at minimum a dovish FOMC surprise and a stabilization of oil from $100. Against the backdrop of oil at triple digits, 13 nights of Iran strikes, and the Clarity Act catalyst fading, the path to $70,000 by July 31 has narrowed materially since the positioning was established.
The $3.4 million premium paid for the outright $70,000 call exposure represents real capital at risk. If Bitcoin does not reach $70,000 by July 31, both the bull call spread and the outright call position expire worthless — transferring the premium paid to the sellers of those options. The Clarity Act unwinding Yang described is the first sign that some of that positioning is being closed before expiry rather than held to the outcome.
The Broader Signal — What $5 Billion in Bullish Options Means for Bitcoin
Despite the Clarity Act headwind and the deteriorating macro environment, the existence of $5 billion in notional open interest concentrated at $70,000-$72,000 provides meaningful information about institutional conviction at these price levels. Sophisticated options traders do not build $5 billion notional positions targeting strikes that are 8-10% above current prices without a specific thesis for why those levels will be reached. The thesis was the Clarity Act plus a dovish FOMC plus a chip rebound — three catalysts that were all plausible simultaneously earlier this week.
One of those three catalysts — Clarity Act by July 31 — has been largely removed by Thune's statement. The other two — FOMC and chip rebound through Big Tech earnings — remain live. Whether $70,000 by July 31 is achievable with two of three original catalysts still in play is the specific question the options market will be repricing in real time as FOMC communication and Big Tech earnings results arrive over the next 72 hours.

The Trump administration imposed new tariffs of 10% to 12.5% on goods from dozens of trading partners — covering 99.4% of US imports — effective Friday morning, according to the Office of the US Trade Representative. The tariffs, announced Thursday, replace a 10% near-blanket duty that the Supreme Court struck down as unlawful, and are grounded in a monthslong Section 301 investigation into alleged forced labor practices by affected countries. The EU, Brazil, Australia, Mexico, and Switzerland all pushed back immediately. Unlike Trump's April "Liberation Day" emergency tariffs that were struck down by the courts, Section 301 tariffs have survived previous legal challenges and can remain in place indefinitely — making the new regime structurally more durable than its predecessor.
The Legal Architecture — Section 301 vs Emergency Authority
The choice of Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 as the legal mechanism is the most consequential aspect of the new tariff regime — more important than the specific rate levels. The Supreme Court's invalidation of the prior 10% blanket duty relied on the specific emergency authority Trump used for the April "Liberation Day" tariffs. Section 301 tariffs operate on a fundamentally different legal basis — they have survived prior court challenges and are viewed by trade experts as a more legally durable option. They can also remain in place indefinitely rather than requiring periodic reauthorization.
"The president is not going to allow his trade policy and overall objectives to be undermined simply because one tool may be limited by a court or something else," senior White House officials told reporters Thursday. The statement is the clearest articulation of the administration's strategy: use legally robust mechanisms that are harder to challenge in court and do not require Congressional action to maintain. The forced labor investigation rationale provides the Section 301 legal foundation — and administration officials said they are not convinced affected countries will eliminate the practice anytime soon, signaling the tariffs are intended to be permanent rather than transitional.
The Rates — 10% Baseline, 12.5% for Non-Compliant Countries
Countries that took steps aimed at combating alleged forced labor qualified for the lower 10% rate. Those that did not — or whose steps were deemed insufficient — face 12.5%. The administration said it was not convinced even compliant countries would eliminate the practice anytime soon, making the lower rate a concession rather than an exemption. Oil and gas, as well as products that cannot be sourced domestically, were granted exemptions — a carve-out that reflects the administration's awareness that tariffs on non-substitutable commodities would directly raise consumer energy costs at a moment when Brent crude is already at $85-88 on Hormuz escalation.
The administration's framing emphasized continuity: the new rates largely preserve duties that importers have already been paying under the prior 10% blanket duty, meaning for most Americans the change is unlikely to immediately translate into higher prices. "We have heard loud and clear: people want to know what tariff rate they're going to pay," an administration official said — positioning the new regime as a more predictable replacement for the on-and-off tariff volatility of the prior year. That predictability argument is the political messaging designed to reduce business community opposition, even as the substantive tariff burden remains.
Global Pushback — EU, Brazil, Australia, Mexico, Switzerland
The diplomatic response was immediate and broad. The EU's foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas called the new tariffs a "negative surprise" and rejected the forced labor claims as unfounded. Switzerland opposed the allegations. Brazil rejected the 12.5% tariff on its goods and reiterated its call for reciprocity. Australia's Trade Minister Don Farrell called the move "completely unjustified" and said Canberra would continue lobbying for removal of all US tariffs on Australian goods. Mexico's economy minister said the country does not see a change in the effective tariff it is paying — a signal that Mexico may be claiming its existing USMCA-based rates supersede the new Section 301 levies.
Norway's response was the outlier: the country said it does not plan to retaliate by imposing tariffs on American goods — a position that reflects Norway's calculation that its trade relationship with the US does not justify escalation.
The breadth of the pushback — spanning the EU, Brazil, Australia, Switzerland, and Mexico simultaneously — recreates the multi-front trade tension of April's Liberation Day tariff shock, which had been one of the primary catalysts for Bitcoin's decline from $83,000 toward $58,000 during the May-June correction. The difference is that Section 301 tariffs are more legally durable, meaning the uncertainty about whether courts will strike them down — which had characterized the Liberation Day regime — is substantially reduced.
The Pending Pipeline — Overcapacity Investigation and Canada's 50%
The new tariffs are not the end of the administration's trade policy escalation. Several pending Section 301 investigations rely on the same legal authority, including one focused on allegations that China, Mexico, and the EU are contributing to global manufacturing overcapacity — a rationale that could produce additional tariff layers on top of the forced labor rates. Earlier this week, the White House also announced a 50% tariff on certain Canadian goods under a never-before-used provision of the Smoot-Hawley Trade Act, set to take effect next month.
The combined picture — 10-12.5% Section 301 forced labor tariffs on 99.4% of imports now in effect, overcapacity investigation pending, and 50% Canada tariffs incoming — represents the most comprehensive and legally durable tariff regime the US has imposed since the Smoot-Hawley era. For markets already navigating Iran-driven oil at $85-88, a hawkish Fed with September hike odds at 63%, and a Capital Economics forecast of 75 basis points in additional rate hikes, the tariff escalation adds a third simultaneous macro headwind: import cost inflation that feeds directly into the CPI readings that the FOMC will be watching when it meets July 28-29.
The Bitcoin and Crypto Read-Through
The April Liberation Day tariff shock that briefly struck down the original blanket duty had been one of Bitcoin's most acute single-event price drivers — the announcement produced a multi-thousand dollar decline in hours as risk assets repriced global recession risk simultaneously. The new Section 301 tariffs are structurally different in two ways that affect the crypto read-through. First, they are more legally durable — the uncertainty premium that markets had priced around whether courts would strike them down is largely absent from Section 301. Second, the administration explicitly framed them as preserving existing duty levels rather than imposing new incremental costs, reducing the immediate demand shock relative to April's announcement of entirely new tariff levels.
The medium-term crypto risk is not the announcement itself but the inflation channel it reinforces. Section 301 tariffs on 99.4% of imports are inflationary — import costs rise, producer prices follow, and CPI readings in August and September will reflect both the Hormuz oil surge and the tariff-driven import cost increase simultaneously. That combined inflation pressure — energy from Hormuz, goods from tariffs — is the most challenging possible backdrop for the FOMC to signal dovishness into, and dovish FOMC communication is the specific macro permission signal that Bitcoin's recovery thesis requires to sustain above $65,000 and target $67,250 and beyond.

Bitcoin added as much as 1.1% since midnight UTC to $65,760 on Friday as Brent crude surged to $97.66 per barrel — its highest level since mid-May — with the Iran conflict showing no sign of de-escalating after 13 consecutive nights of US strikes. The crypto market is closing the week on a constructive note despite a macro backdrop that by conventional analysis should be applying far more pressure. Ether rose as much as 1.6%. HYPE and FET each gained more than 2%. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures were marginally positive. Gold held above $4,000. The Dollar Index edged slightly lower. BVIV declined 3% to 39% — halting a five-day streak of advances — providing the first volatility relief signal of the week. The $5 billion open interest cluster at $70,000-$72,000 remained intact with new call activity emerging at $77,000 and $80,000 strikes.
The Most Important Signal of the Week — Brent at $97.66 and Crypto Is Green
Bitcoin and broader crypto rising on a day when Brent crude approaches $100 is the single most important market signal of the week — more informative than any individual price move, ETF flow number, or derivatives data point. Every prior oil spike in the current conflict cycle has either rattled risk assets or produced a muted flat response. A day where Brent is at $97.66, the Iran conflict is in its 14th consecutive day with no ceasefire horizon, and crypto is broadly green is the market demonstrating that the structural demand — six-day $930 million ETF inflow streak, whale accumulation ongoing for two months, nine-year exchange supply low — is providing a genuine bid that macro headwinds are not overcoming.
The conventional macro analysis framework would predict Bitcoin falling on a day with Brent at $97.66. June's correlation pattern showed Bitcoin declining 2-5% on each Iran escalation session. The fact that Friday's session inverts that pattern — crypto green while oil approaches triple digits — represents a regime change in how Bitcoin is responding to the oil-inflation channel that has been its primary headwind throughout the quarter. Whether this regime change is durable or a temporary decoupling that will resolve with Bitcoin eventually following oil lower is what FOMC week will clarify.
Traditional Markets — Muted, Not Panicked
The traditional market response to Brent at $97.66 is also instructive. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures are marginally positive. Gold holds above $4,000 without the sharp flight-to-safety spike that would accompany genuine panic. The Dollar Index edged lower rather than surging on safe-haven demand. The picture across traditional markets is of a week-ending consolidation rather than a risk-off event — suggesting that $97.66 Brent is being treated as a persistent elevated baseline rather than a new shock that requires immediate portfolio reallocation.
This matters for Bitcoin because the crypto-equity correlation that drove Bitcoin lower during every prior chip selloff and Iran escalation session this quarter was operating through the risk-off mechanism — when traditional markets panicked, crypto followed. With traditional markets muted at Brent $97.66, the correlation mechanism is not firing, and Bitcoin's structural bid is free to express itself in the price. The Dollar Index edging lower is also constructive for Bitcoin specifically — a weaker dollar historically provides a direct tailwind for dollar-denominated Bitcoin prices.
Derivatives — Churn Dominates, BVIV Declines, DOGE and ETH Mixed
Volume increased 11% to $165 billion over 24 hours while open interest held steady at approximately $116 billion — the same churn-over-conviction pattern that has characterized the week's derivatives activity. High volume with flat OI confirms existing positions are being traded rather than new directional bets established at scale.
The BVIV's 3% decline to 39% — halting a five-day advance streak that had taken it from 37.5% to 40% — is the most bullish Friday derivatives signal. Implied volatility declining heading into a weekend before FOMC week means the options market is not pricing an imminent large downside move, despite Brent at $97.66 and the macro headwind concentration. The EVIV declining alongside BVIV extends the vol relief to Ethereum.
DOGE presents the clearest bearish derivatives signal: OI nearing 16 billion tokens — the highest since October — alongside spot price at its lowest since November 2023 confirms a downtrend with active short buildup. Rising OI in a falling market is the textbook short accumulation pattern. ETH futures OI at 14.53 million ETH — the highest since June 7 — presents a more mixed picture: positive funding rates signal bullish sentiment in the perpetuals market while negative 24-hour CVD shows bears leading immediate price action through market orders. The ETH mixed signal is consistent with the broader market's competing forces — structural bullish positioning meeting bearish near-term flow.
Broad-based negative CVD across most tokens including BTC — with only TRX and CRO excepted — means that despite Bitcoin's 1.1% gain, sellers remain more aggressive than buyers at market prices. Prices are rising on the absence of aggressive selling rather than the presence of aggressive buying — the same subdued-volume, falling-seller-pressure dynamic that has characterized the week's recovery sessions.
The New Options Strikes — $77,000 and $80,000 Calls Appear in Volume Rankings
The emergence of $77,000 and $80,000 call strikes in Deribit's volume rankings — alongside the existing $70,000-$72,000 cluster — signals that some options traders are positioning for a move beyond the bull call spread's $72,000 profit ceiling. $77,000 and $80,000 calls targeting levels above the near-term bull call spread structure suggest either new traders entering with longer-duration upside exposure, or existing spread holders adding outright calls above their spread's ceiling to capture any move beyond $72,000 that the spread would cap.
The $80,000 strike appearing in volume rankings is particularly notable — $81,000 is the level technical analysts have identified as the trend reversal confirmation level where the downtrend from October's $126,080 all-time high would be structurally broken. Options activity at $80,000 implies some market participants are positioning for that structural trend reversal within a near-term expiry window — a significantly more aggressive thesis than the $70,000-$72,000 bull call spread's moderate upswing target.
The Weekly Summary — Structural Support Holding Against Every Headwind
Bitcoin is closing the week at approximately $65,000 — up from the $62,537 low recorded when the chip selloff and Iran escalation coincided in the worst session of the recovery period. The week's price action has been defined by Bitcoin's structural support holding against a combination of headwinds that has not been simultaneously present at any prior point in the current cycle: oil approaching $100, 13 consecutive nights of US-Iran strikes, Trump signaling no readiness to negotiate, Section 301 tariffs on 99.4% of US imports, the Clarity Act's July 31 timeline eliminated by Senate recess, and BVIV rising toward 40% on compressed-vol-before-catalyst concerns.
Against all of those headwinds, the six-day $930 million ETF inflow streak held. The 200-week SMA at $62,873 held. The $65,000-$65,500 confirmation range that analysts identified as the momentum threshold held. And Friday's session added a new data point: Brent at $97.66 did not break the bid. The FOMC meeting July 28-29 — now the weekend away — is the single remaining scheduled macro event with the potential to either validate that structural support as the foundation for the next recovery leg or expose it as insufficient against a hawkish Fed communication into triple-digit oil.

Bitcoin supply in profit has climbed to 57.5% as of July 22 — up from 46.2% on June 30, the 2026 low — approaching the 60% threshold that feels like meaningful recovery progress. But CryptoQuant contributor thechessONCHAIN is issuing a specific and data-grounded warning: this cycle has already produced one failed attempt at exactly this stage, and the current setup is not yet meeting the onchain requirements that have historically confirmed bear market endings. From April 28 to June 1, LTH-SOPR's 30-day SMA held above 1.0 for 35 days, supply in profit reached 67%, and both rolled back over — producing the June 30 low of 46.2% that the current recovery is climbing away from. The 30-day SMA of LTH-SOPR has now been below 1 for more than 50 consecutive days.
The Two Confirmation Requirements — Neither Is Met
CryptoQuant's thechessONCHAIN has identified the specific conditions that have ended previous Bitcoin bear markets based on onchain data — not price action alone. Both conditions must be met simultaneously, and both must be sustained rather than briefly touched.
The first requirement is that the 30-day SMA of LTH-SOPR remains above 1.0 without falling below that level for weeks on end. LTH-SOPR measures the proportion of long-term holder coins moving onchain at a higher price relative to their previous transaction — values above 1 indicate LTH coins moving mostly in profit, values below 1 indicate LTHs moving coins at a loss in what can be interpreted as capitulatory behavior. The current 30-day SMA of LTH-SOPR has been below 1 for more than 50 consecutive days — meaning long-term holders have been consistently transacting at a loss for nearly two months, even as the nominal Bitcoin price has recovered from $57,750 to $65,000.
The second requirement is that total supply in profit exceeds 64%. Current supply in profit at 57.5% is 6.5 percentage points below that threshold — a gap that, given Bitcoin's current price trajectory, would require approximately another 10-15% price appreciation to close depending on the distribution of acquisition costs in the current supply.
The Failed Breakout Template — April 28 to June 1
The most analytically sobering element of thechessONCHAIN's analysis is the precision of the prior failed breakout. From April 28 to June 1, the LTH-SOPR 30-day SMA held above 1.0 for 35 consecutive days — a duration that in prior cycles had been associated with genuine bear market endings. Supply in profit reached 67% — above the 64% confirmation threshold. Both indicators simultaneously met the historically required levels. And both rolled back over, producing the June 30 low of 46.2% supply in profit that was below 50% — meaning more than half of all Bitcoin in existence was being held at a loss.
The failed April-June breakout is the specific reason why the current 57.5% supply in profit reading cannot be treated as straightforward recovery confirmation. The market has demonstrated in 2026 that meeting the quantitative thresholds for a short period is insufficient — the thresholds must be sustained for an extended period without rolling back over. The April-June attempt held for 35 days before failing. The current recovery has been building for approximately 22 days since the June 30 low — not yet at the duration where prior cycle confirmations have held.
LTH-SOPR Below 1 for 50+ Days — The Capitulation Signal
The LTH-SOPR 30-day SMA remaining below 1 for more than 50 consecutive days is the most important caveat in an otherwise improving onchain picture. Long-term holders — defined as entities whose Bitcoin has remained dormant for at least six months — are the most conviction-driven cohort in the Bitcoin supply. When their SOPR falls below 1 for extended periods, it indicates they are being forced or choosing to transact at prices below their acquisition cost — the behavioral signature of capitulatory selling or distribution under duress.
Fifty-plus days of LTH-SOPR below 1 occurring simultaneously with the whale accumulation data showing 270,000 BTC absorbed over two weeks and the Glassnode accumulation score at 1.0 creates an apparent contradiction. The resolution is that the LTH-SOPR measures LTH coins that are being transacted onchain — the ones moving. The accumulation score and exchange supply data measure the overall LTH supply and the coins available on exchanges. What the combined picture suggests is that a subset of long-term holders who need or choose to transact are doing so at a loss, while the majority of LTH supply — 79% of circulating supply per K33 data — is being held without transacting, being absorbed by whales rather than flowing to exchanges.
The Demand Picture — Institutional Versus Spot
Demand appears mixed, with weak spot-market interest meeting a rebound in institutional BTC allocation. The six-day $930 million ETF inflow streak reflects institutional demand returning through the regulated channel — the most sustained institutional buying since April. But the subdued spot market volume that has characterized every recovery session this week — prices rising on fewer sellers rather than more aggressive buyers — confirms the weak spot-market interest that CoinTelegraph flagged. Institutional ETF demand and whale on-chain accumulation are providing the structural bid. Retail spot demand has not returned in a volume-confirmed way. Bear market endings historically require retail spot demand to join institutional and LTH accumulation in the final leg — the current configuration has two of three.
The 64% Threshold — What Bitcoin Price Would Close the Gap
Supply in profit at 57.5% versus the 64% confirmation requirement means approximately 6.5% more of the total Bitcoin supply needs to move into profit — which requires the Bitcoin price to appreciate sufficiently that coins acquired at prices between the current 57.5th and 64th percentile of cost basis become profitable. Given the distribution of Bitcoin's supply by acquisition price in 2026, closing that gap likely requires Bitcoin to sustain somewhere in the $68,000-$72,000 range for an extended period — which is precisely the target zone of the $5 billion Deribit options cluster at $70,000-$72,000. The options market's bullish concentration and the CryptoQuant confirmation framework are pointing at the same price zone for different reasons.
The critical word is sustain. The April-June false breakout briefly touched 67% supply in profit before rolling back. Touching $70,000-$72,000 on a single candle or during a FOMC-reaction rally is insufficient. The supply in profit metric needs to hold above 64% for weeks on end while LTH-SOPR's 30-day SMA simultaneously recovers above 1.0 — a duration requirement that cannot be satisfied by the July 31 options expiry window.
The Honest Assessment — Recovery Real, Bear Market Ending Unconfirmed
The most accurate framing of Bitcoin's current onchain position is that the recovery from the June 30 low is real, structurally supported, and better than the April-June failed breakout in some dimensions — but not yet meeting the quantitative thresholds that have historically confirmed bear market endings. Supply in profit has improved more rapidly than the April-June recovery's early stages. Whale accumulation and exchange supply tightening are more extreme than at the April-June period. ETF demand is returning. But LTH-SOPR remains below 1 after 50+ days, supply in profit at 57.5% is 6.5 percentage points below the 64% threshold, and the cycle has already demonstrated that meeting these metrics briefly is insufficient — they must be sustained.
The FOMC meeting July 28-29 and oil above $97 heading into that meeting are the immediate macro variables that will determine whether supply in profit continues climbing toward 64% or rolls back over for the second time in 2026.

The Boring Company, the tunnel-building company founded by Elon Musk, is seeking new funding that would value it at about $20 billion. According to ChainCatcher, the company was founded in 2016 and develops underground transportation tunnel technology aimed at easing urban traffic congestion. It currently operates the Vegas Loop project in Las Vegas and plans to expand underground transit networks to more U.S. cities.

At the 2:30 close, the main Shanghai gold futures contract rose 0.18% to 885 yuan per gram, and the main Shanghai silver futures contract gained 1.39% to 14,323 yuan per kilogram. According to Jin10, the SC crude oil main contract fell 2.55% to 578 yuan per barrel.

U.S. stocks closed mixed on Friday, with the Dow up 0.45%, the S&P 500 up 0.05%, and the Nasdaq down 0.64%. According to Jin10, storage-related stocks weakened, with Sandisk down 10.79%, SK Hynix down 8.81%, and Micron Technology down 6.99%; the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 4.25%, Intel dropped 7.89%, IBM rose 3.64%, and Apple gained 3.53%. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell 0.68%, while Alibaba dropped 1.67% and Baidu fell 1.91%.

According to CNBC, HSBC initiated coverage of SpaceX with a hold rating and a $115 price target, saying the company is already fully valued even after assigning a premium for Elon Musk's track record. The bank said its sum-of-the-parts approach includes a 2 times innovation premium and puts the target below SpaceX's $135 IPO price and recent trading level of about $118. HSBC said investors already appear to be pricing in much of SpaceX's long-term growth potential, including expansion of Starlink, higher launch activity and development of its AI initiatives. The firm also said its most optimistic blue-sky scenario values SpaceX at $293 per share if Starship becomes commercially viable in 2027, launch capacity doubles versus the base case, Starlink reaches a larger addressable market with higher average revenue per user, and the company's AI assets receive richer valuation multiples.

Brent futures surged past $100 a barrel as the conflict in the Middle East widened and Ukraine struck Russian infrastructure, according to Bloomberg.
The moves came as supply disruptions emerged across four global fronts, adding to volatility in oil markets.

Volkswagen Group said its first-half 2026 after-tax profit fell more than 30% year on year, citing U.S. tariffs and intensifying global competition. The company also said full-year 2026 revenue is now expected to come in below its previous forecast, according to 36Kr. Group CEO Oliver Blume said Volkswagen may cut around 50,000 jobs worldwide to meet its cost-reduction target, though the final scale still needs further assessment.

Worldcoin's multisig address transferred 36.94 million WLD, worth $13.84 million, to two new addresses 9 hours ago. According to Odaily, the upstream address actually received 60 million WLD and has transferred out only 36.94 million WLD so far. The receiving addresses have not transferred or sold the tokens.

The Nasdaq 100 Index tumbled Friday, ending its first back-to-back weekly loss since late March as an oil-price spike and a selloff in tech stocks weighed on the benchmark, according to Bloomberg.
The decline hit companies that had surged on the back of the AI investment boom.

Wall Street ended a jittery week with gains in stocks and bonds as oil fell below $100 on hopes for a diplomatic solution to the Middle East conflict, according to Bloomberg.
The moves came as investors weighed signs of easing tensions in the region.

According to Jin10, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission said speculators increased their net long positions in WTI crude by 8,289 contracts to 78,348 in the week ended July 21.

The S&P 500 Index rebounded Friday, ending a volatile week as generally strong corporate earnings helped steady markets rattled by the oil-price spike and concerns about an AI-driven tech stock rally, according to Bloomberg.

According to CNBC, the Federal Reserve should seriously consider raising rates at next week's meeting as inflation risks tied to energy, shipping disruptions and sticky domestic demand remain elevated. The article said December WTI futures were trading above $79 a barrel, 10-year Treasury yields were six basis points higher than on July 14, and traders on Kalshi were pricing in a 22% chance of a 25-basis-point hike in July, while CME FedWatch implied a 36% probability.
The piece said June core retail sales rose 10.1% year-over-year, the ninth straight month of gains, and noted that June unemployment was 4.2%. It also cited June core CPI at 2.6% year-over-year and said June core PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, is expected at 3.4% year-over-year. The article added that margin debt has increased more than 40% year-over-year, while UBS strategist Keith Parker said AI infrastructure backlogs continue to rise as supply remains constrained and Barclays analyst Jonathan Millar said there is little evidence that faster AI adoption is already producing enough productivity gains to ease inflation.

According to Jin10, Russia's central bank said it expects the average oil price to be $60 per barrel in the 2026 baseline scenario, down from a previous forecast of $65 per barrel.

According to Jin10, Barclays said spot oil prices may lead the move and test $150 a barrel in a three-month scenario.

Cadillac Mines Corp. and some of its backers raised C$385 million in an upsized initial public offering, according to Bloomberg. The gold miner’s listing adds to a mining-led rebound in Canadian IPO activity.
The deal was valued at $273 million.

BlackRock Inc. is facing weak demand for a $12.3 billion high-grade bond sale backing a Meta Platforms Inc. data center project, according to Bloomberg.
Investors are weighing concerns that spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure has become excessive.

According to Lianhe Zaobao citing AFP, a Houthi spokesman said the group had not blocked traffic through the strategic Bab al-Mandeb Strait after announcing this week a maritime blockade on enemy states, including Saudi Arabia. The Iran-backed group said its position was limited to a sea blockade affecting the Saudi side only, in response to what it called Saudi Arabia's blockade of Houthi-controlled areas.
The statement came after the Houthis attacked a Saudi vessel in the nearby Red Sea. The group said on radio Monday that it would attack ships belonging to the enemy unless they complied with the blockade order. AFP said data it analyzed on Wednesday showed nine ships turned back after the Houthis announced the blockade, although some later resumed course.
The Houthis' attack has added to turbulence in global energy markets as clashes between Iran and the United States flare again. Brent crude briefly surged above USD 100 a barrel on Thursday. Separately, Kpler data cited by AFP showed that Saudi Arabia's seaborne crude exports through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait from March 2026 to mid-July 2026 were eight times higher than in the same period in 2025 after war broke out in the Middle East.

Investors in Asia are buying stocks from Indonesian banks to Chinese e-commerce companies and Indian technology firms as they trim exposure to crowded AI trades, according to Bloomberg.
The move reflects a broader effort to cut risk from swings in artificial intelligence-related shares, which have become increasingly volatile.

The euro zone’s first data batch for policymakers weighing another interest-rate hike is expected to show resilient expansion and faster inflation, according to Bloomberg.
The readings would add to the case for the European Central Bank to keep pressure on inflation as officials assess whether more tightening is needed.

The US will let Mexican cattle imports resume after a more than yearlong ban, the Wall Street Journal reported, as the Trump administration tries to ease record beef prices.
According to Bloomberg, the move would end restrictions tied to efforts to curb screwworm.

Russia’s largest Black Sea oil port has paused tanker loadings over the past several days amid a surge in Ukrainian drone attacks in the area, according to Bloomberg.
The disruption affects a key export outlet as safety concerns rise around the port.

Gold edged higher and held above the key $4,000-an-ounce resistance level as traders weighed the widening conflict in the Middle East and the outlook for tighter monetary policy, according to Bloomberg.
The move left bullion firmly above a closely watched technical level as investors assessed how geopolitical risk and interest-rate expectations could affect the market.

Wall Street staged a late-week comeback, with stocks and bonds both higher as oil fell below $100, according to Bloomberg. Corporate America’s profit machine continued to show signs of strength, helping calm a jittery market.

Airlines and other aircraft operators will receive up to $5.7 billion in rebates to help cover the cost of installing altimeters that can withstand 5G interference, according to Bloomberg.
The money is tied to the US government's planned auction of valuable spectrum for wireless services next year.

According to Jin10, Brazilian Planning Minister Moretti said higher Brent crude prices should boost tax revenue, but the outlook remains uncertain.

SC crude's main contract weakened during the session, with losses widening to 3.02% and the latest price at 574.9 yuan per barrel. According to Jin10, turnover was about 23.921 billion yuan, open interest fell by nearly 600 lots intraday, and positions edged lower.

According to market sources, Qualcomm (QCOM.O) told customers that its product prices will be raised by a double-digit percentage. The company said it can no longer absorb rising costs because costs keep increasing.

According to Jin10, the average price of vinylene carbonate (VC), an electrolyte additive, was 200,000 yuan per ton on July 24, according to Baichuan Yingfu data, up more than 40% in just over a month. On July 23, it rose by 20,000 yuan per ton in a single day and moved back above 200,000 yuan per ton for the first time in more than four years.
The price increase boosted A-share VC stocks, with several shares including Furi Shares hitting the daily limit on July 23. A company executive in Central China said most VC producers are limiting supply, and shipments stop the next day if payments are overdue by even one day.

Strive’s SATA preferred shares rebounded from $83.30 to about $97, according to Yahoo Finance data. According to NS3.AI, SATA is designed to stay near its $100 par value through a variable dividend rate. Samson Mow said SATA’s recovery could help support confidence in Strategy’s STRC.

Spiking energy prices, higher US tariffs and surging artificial-intelligence spending are reviving investor fears of renewed inflation, according to Bloomberg.
The Bloomberg Economics piece says the combination is putting pressure on markets as traders reassess the outlook for prices and policy.

Changxin Memory is expected to IPO on the Shanghai STAR Market on June 27, according to trade.xyz. According to NS3.AI, the Changxin Memory perpetual market discovery boundary will adjust to 50% at 23:00 UTC on July 26.

US stocks finished a jittery week little changed as a selloff in chipmakers offset a decline in oil and signs of strength in Corporate America’s profit engine, according to Bloomberg.
The move left the S&P 500 wavering as traders weighed pressure on semiconductor shares against softer energy prices.