#美国汽油价格涨4.4%至每加仑4.06美元 O kwethu akusiyo nje "intengo kawoyela inyukile"
Wonke umuntu ukhuluma ngo-"oyela usezingeni eliphezulu, ungabe usalandela" kodwa i-WTI isenendawo engu-33% ukusuka ku-52-week high yayo engu-$119, futhi izimbangela zayo ezintathu zonke zisanda kuqala).
Izitatimende ezintathu ezicacile zokuthi kungani manje kumele ugibele: $CL
① Ukunqotshwa kwe-geo sekuqalile ukuqinisa. AbakwaHouthi basanda kusuka besebenzisa imishayili ukushaya amathangi amabili kawoyela aseSaudi, i-Red Sea + i-Hormuz zisengozini ngasikhathi sinye. Umzila wokuthutha kawoyela emhlabeni wansuku zonke onamabhareli angaphezu kuka-20 million usongelwa. I-WTI isuke ku-$83 ngesonto eledlule yaya ku-$89.45 namuhla, kuthathe izinsuku zokuhweba ezi-5 kuphela—lokho kuwukufakwa kokuqala komvuzo (premium).
② Uphethiloli uyaqhubeka ucindezela uphethiloli (oyela) ukhuphuke. Isilinganiso senani likaphethiloli eMelika singu-$4.06/galon, sikhuphuke ngo-29% unyaka nonyaka; udizili seludlule u-$5.13 lwakha ukwenyuka okukhulu kunakho konke ngesonto elilodwa. I-crack spread isesigabeni esingaphezu kwe-90 percentile ngokomlando—izisebenzi zokuhluza (refineries) ziyazuza kakhulu, kodwa izinqolobane zisancipha. Ingcindezi yamanani ephethiloli ezansi izodlulisela phezulu emuva ku-oyela ongahluziwe (crude), ngakho indawo yokuthi i-CL ixhume ikhona kakhulu.
③ Imali ayikangeni. I-WTI namuhla ibe nokuthengiswa ngivolumu engu-73,000 lots, kodwa uma iqhathaniswa nomthamo wansuku zonke wama-2.48 million lots, kusamele kube sezingeni elingakagcwali. Isikhathi sesiphepho (hurricane season) ngo-August sesiqala ukungena kulo msebenzi ophezulu, kanti iGulf of Mexico (i-44% yesakhono sokuhluza) ingahlaselwa nganoma yisiphi isikhathi. Manje u-$89.45 usala ne-33% yokucabanga ukuya ku-52-week high engu-$119.48—kanti amandla okunyuka asaqala nje.
Isiphetho: Abathengi be-CL (long) kuphela, akukho enye inketho. Eduze kuka-$89 yilapho lolu hambo luqala khona (runway), hhayi lapho luphela khona (final line). Ucabanga ukuthi i-CL izoshaya u-$95 kuleli sonto, noma izophinde idlale ngokuphindaphinda eceleni komngcele ka-$90 bese idlulela phezulu?
Wonke umuntu ukhuluma ngo-"oyela usezingeni eliphezulu, ungabe usalandela" kodwa i-WTI isenendawo engu-33% ukusuka ku-52-week high yayo engu-$119, futhi izimbangela zayo ezintathu zonke zisanda kuqala).
Izitatimende ezintathu ezicacile zokuthi kungani manje kumele ugibele: $CL
① Ukunqotshwa kwe-geo sekuqalile ukuqinisa. AbakwaHouthi basanda kusuka besebenzisa imishayili ukushaya amathangi amabili kawoyela aseSaudi, i-Red Sea + i-Hormuz zisengozini ngasikhathi sinye. Umzila wokuthutha kawoyela emhlabeni wansuku zonke onamabhareli angaphezu kuka-20 million usongelwa. I-WTI isuke ku-$83 ngesonto eledlule yaya ku-$89.45 namuhla, kuthathe izinsuku zokuhweba ezi-5 kuphela—lokho kuwukufakwa kokuqala komvuzo (premium).
② Uphethiloli uyaqhubeka ucindezela uphethiloli (oyela) ukhuphuke. Isilinganiso senani likaphethiloli eMelika singu-$4.06/galon, sikhuphuke ngo-29% unyaka nonyaka; udizili seludlule u-$5.13 lwakha ukwenyuka okukhulu kunakho konke ngesonto elilodwa. I-crack spread isesigabeni esingaphezu kwe-90 percentile ngokomlando—izisebenzi zokuhluza (refineries) ziyazuza kakhulu, kodwa izinqolobane zisancipha. Ingcindezi yamanani ephethiloli ezansi izodlulisela phezulu emuva ku-oyela ongahluziwe (crude), ngakho indawo yokuthi i-CL ixhume ikhona kakhulu.
③ Imali ayikangeni. I-WTI namuhla ibe nokuthengiswa ngivolumu engu-73,000 lots, kodwa uma iqhathaniswa nomthamo wansuku zonke wama-2.48 million lots, kusamele kube sezingeni elingakagcwali. Isikhathi sesiphepho (hurricane season) ngo-August sesiqala ukungena kulo msebenzi ophezulu, kanti iGulf of Mexico (i-44% yesakhono sokuhluza) ingahlaselwa nganoma yisiphi isikhathi. Manje u-$89.45 usala ne-33% yokucabanga ukuya ku-52-week high engu-$119.48—kanti amandla okunyuka asaqala nje.
Isiphetho: Abathengi be-CL (long) kuphela, akukho enye inketho. Eduze kuka-$89 yilapho lolu hambo luqala khona (runway), hhayi lapho luphela khona (final line). Ucabanga ukuthi i-CL izoshaya u-$95 kuleli sonto, noma izophinde idlale ngokuphindaphinda eceleni komngcele ka-$90 bese idlulela phezulu?