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📈 Rising Bond Yields: Is It Really the #AI Buildout — Or Something Else?.............................................................................
There's a popular theory going around that the AI infrastructure boom is driving up long-term government bond yields, as companies compete for a limited pool of financing. New analysis from Robin Brooks.
What the data actually shows:
Brooks breaks down the US saving-investment balance — a framework tracking which parts of the economy are net savers vs. net borrowers. His finding: through Q1 2026, non-financial corporations (the sector doing the AI buildout) are still net savers, not borrowers. That means AI capex isn't absorbing the country's savings pool the way the theory suggests.
What is driving it, according to this analysis: government dissaving — the budget deficit. The government remains the dominant net borrower, absorbing savings from the rest of the economy through debt issuance. Brooks contrasts this with the early-2000s "IT bubble," when corporate capex spending was large enough to flip businesses into net borrowers and account for the entire current account deficit — a genuine buildout-driven yield story. He argues nothing comparable is happening now.
Why this matters for crypto/dollar traders:
This connects directly to last week's Treasury buyback news — larger-than-expected buybacks of long-dated debt, widely read as an attempt to artificially cap yields, which triggered dollar weakness and revived the "debasement trade" (rotation into scarce assets like gold and Bitcoin as a hedge against currency erosion).
#myopinionis : If the deficit — not AI investment — is the real driver of higher yields, that's arguably a more persistent, harder-to-fix problem. Fiscal issues don't resolve as quickly as a temporary capex cycle would. That keeps the debasement/hard-asset narrative alive as a longer-term theme, separate from short-term Fed rate speculation.
#Source : Robin J Brooks (Substack).
$BTC
$AI
$NVDA.US
There's a popular theory going around that the AI infrastructure boom is driving up long-term government bond yields, as companies compete for a limited pool of financing. New analysis from Robin Brooks.
What the data actually shows:
Brooks breaks down the US saving-investment balance — a framework tracking which parts of the economy are net savers vs. net borrowers. His finding: through Q1 2026, non-financial corporations (the sector doing the AI buildout) are still net savers, not borrowers. That means AI capex isn't absorbing the country's savings pool the way the theory suggests.
What is driving it, according to this analysis: government dissaving — the budget deficit. The government remains the dominant net borrower, absorbing savings from the rest of the economy through debt issuance. Brooks contrasts this with the early-2000s "IT bubble," when corporate capex spending was large enough to flip businesses into net borrowers and account for the entire current account deficit — a genuine buildout-driven yield story. He argues nothing comparable is happening now.
Why this matters for crypto/dollar traders:
This connects directly to last week's Treasury buyback news — larger-than-expected buybacks of long-dated debt, widely read as an attempt to artificially cap yields, which triggered dollar weakness and revived the "debasement trade" (rotation into scarce assets like gold and Bitcoin as a hedge against currency erosion).
#myopinionis : If the deficit — not AI investment — is the real driver of higher yields, that's arguably a more persistent, harder-to-fix problem. Fiscal issues don't resolve as quickly as a temporary capex cycle would. That keeps the debasement/hard-asset narrative alive as a longer-term theme, separate from short-term Fed rate speculation.
#Source : Robin J Brooks (Substack).
$BTC
$AI
$NVDA.US
The U.S. Department of Justice has charged Gannon Ken Van Dyke, a U.S. Army Special Forces soldier, with allegedly earning over $400,000 by exploiting classified information to anticipate a U.S. military operation in Venezuela and placing related bets on a prediction platform.
According to recent reporting, Donald Trump appears to have taken a more relaxed stance on the issue. After learning that the soldier had wagered on Nicolás Maduro’s removal, Trump compared the situation to baseball player Pete Rose betting on his own team to win. He suggested that predicting a positive outcome is less concerning, adding that the matter would still be reviewed.
Additionally, given Trump’s past support for Rose, several of his allies have argued that the soldier should be considered for a pardon.
#source #Finance #TRUMP
https://m.odaily.news/newsflash/478386
According to recent reporting, Donald Trump appears to have taken a more relaxed stance on the issue. After learning that the soldier had wagered on Nicolás Maduro’s removal, Trump compared the situation to baseball player Pete Rose betting on his own team to win. He suggested that predicting a positive outcome is less concerning, adding that the matter would still be reviewed.
Additionally, given Trump’s past support for Rose, several of his allies have argued that the soldier should be considered for a pardon.
#source #Finance #TRUMP
https://m.odaily.news/newsflash/478386
Hong Kong Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po stated that global asset allocation is becoming increasingly diversified, with digital asset ETFs emerging as a significant new investment avenue.
In a commentary published on April 26 titled “Harnessing Greater Energy Through Innovation and Collaboration,” he shared his latest views on global investment trends and ETF market development.
Chan highlighted that investors worldwide are actively diversifying their portfolios, moving away from dependence on single markets or asset classes. As investment themes continue to evolve, ETFs are expanding their scope—ranging from physical precious metals and futures to technology, semiconductor firms, and now digital assets.
He emphasized that these ETFs, which span various themes and offer different leverage structures, give investors efficient and transparent tools to achieve diversified exposure.
#Finance #source https://www.panewslab.com/zh/articles/019dc8bd-01e4-716e-b795-180f56a30617#etf #GlobalMarkets #crypto
In a commentary published on April 26 titled “Harnessing Greater Energy Through Innovation and Collaboration,” he shared his latest views on global investment trends and ETF market development.
Chan highlighted that investors worldwide are actively diversifying their portfolios, moving away from dependence on single markets or asset classes. As investment themes continue to evolve, ETFs are expanding their scope—ranging from physical precious metals and futures to technology, semiconductor firms, and now digital assets.
He emphasized that these ETFs, which span various themes and offer different leverage structures, give investors efficient and transparent tools to achieve diversified exposure.
#Finance #source https://www.panewslab.com/zh/articles/019dc8bd-01e4-716e-b795-180f56a30617#etf #GlobalMarkets #crypto
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