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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 US and Iran traders are said to have reached a 60-day understanding memo to extend the ceasefire and kick off negotiations on Iran's nuclear program, according to Axios.

However, Trump hasn't given his final nod yet and has asked for a few days to mull it over before making a decision.

🔹📊🇺🇸 Goldman Sachs warns that the S&P 500 is showing unusual behavior compared to other macro assets. The correlation with interest rates is at decade lows, while it reaches decade highs against Gold. Meanwhile, the relationship with the VIX is at elevated levels from the past two years, and against oil, it's at decade lows.

According to this analysis, the U.S. index isn't consistently reflecting the signals from other key variables in the macro system, reinforcing the idea that the equity market isn't telling the full story.

When these kinds of divergences widen, they often get resolved with an adjustment in one of the involved assets. Without trying to time the market, Goldman Sachs points out that, based on the data, the S&P 500 appears to be one of the main candidates for a correction to restore these correlations.

🔹🤖 $QCOM Qualcomm strikes a deal with ByteDance, the parent company of TikTok, to supply data center chips - Bloomberg

🟢📈🇺🇸 $MU Micron joins the $1T club for the first time

Micron has surpassed the trillion-dollar market cap driven by UBS's upgrade, which raised its price target to $1.625 from $535 and reiterated a buy recommendation.

UBS projects sustained EPS above $100 between 2027 and 2029 (estimates of $155, $167, and $117), amidst a tight supply in DRAM and NAND and an uptick in prices, especially in HBM.

A year ago, the company was valued at less than $100B. Today, it exceeds a trillion, climbing +18%, thus accumulating +210% YTD and more than 10x since April 2025. 🔥

🚨 OIL RALLIES AND GLOBAL MARKETS ARE ON HIGH ALERT 🌍🛢️

Tensions between the U.S. and Iran are shaking up the global economy again. The price of oil has spiked due to new risks in the Middle East, while investors are fearing prolonged inflation and high rates.

📌 Why does this matter?
• Higher oil prices = increased costs worldwide ⛽
• Risk of persistent inflation 📈
• Greater volatility in stocks and crypto 📉📊
• The Fed might delay rate cuts 🏦

👀 Markets will be watching closely for any escalation, as it could impact everything from equities to Bitcoin.

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran will have about 30 days to reopen the Strait of Hormuz after the agreement is signed - Nikkei Asia

During this window, the country will be working on clearing naval mines

The terms also include ending toll collection in the region

The ceasefire agreed upon between the U.S. and Iran earlier in April will be extended for 60 days. The plan is to conduct negotiations on Iran's nuclear program during this two-month pause in hostilities, including specific measures to handle Iran's enriched uranium.

🚨🇮🇷🇺🇸 Sources from Al Arabiya, citing a draft agreement between the U.S. and Iran:

- A 60-day extension of the ceasefire, renewable.

- Opening the Strait of Hormuz toll-free and removing landmines.

- Permission for Iran to sell and export oil.

- Continuation of nuclear negotiations to reach long-term deals.

The discussion is still ongoing regarding arrangements for U.S. military presence around Iran and the management of the Strait of Hormuz.

🚨🇮🇷🇺🇸 Al Arabiya sources, citing a draft deal between the US and Iran:

- A 60-day ceasefire extension, renewable.

- Opening of the Strait of Hormuz toll-free and removal of landmines.

- Permission for Iran to sell and export oil.

- Ongoing nuclear negotiations aiming for long-term agreements.

Discussions are still rolling on arrangements regarding US military presence around Iran and the management of the Strait of Hormuz.

🚨🇮🇷🇺🇸🇨🇳 Iran is reportedly ready to offload its highly enriched uranium, according to sources close to the deal.

Moreover, sources from Al-Arabiya indicate that Tehran is looking for assurances from China before moving forward with a potential agreement with the United States, and they might even be considering transferring the highly enriched uranium to the Asian giant.

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump: The US and Iran are getting real close to sealing a deal - CBS interview

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 President Trump says a deal with Iran has been "largely negotiated" and will be announced soon.

Trump stated that the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened under the agreement.

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump claims to have informed his reps that "they shouldn't rush to strike a deal" with Iran and that "time is on our side."

🇮🇷🇴🇲 Iran and Oman are discussing the rollout of a permanent toll in the Strait of Hormuz, as stated by an Iranian envoy.

🚨🇮🇷🇺🇸 Al Jazeera: An Iranian official denies reports that the Supreme Leader of Iran stated that uranium must stay in Iran.

🟣🏦🇺🇸 The latest FOMC minutes confirm what the market has already started to price in: the Fed is not aligned, but the bias has clearly shifted towards a more hawkish stance.

While there is division within the committee, the key point is that the majority believe a rate hike could be appropriate if inflation remains elevated, while many members even preferred to remove any signals of easing from the statement. Only a smaller faction keeps the door open to cuts this year, contingent on a clear slowdown in inflation or a deterioration in the labor market.

This tone shift doesn't happen in a vacuum. Since the last meeting on April 29, U.S. macro data has surprised to the upside, which is clearly reflected in the rise of the Citi Economic Surprise Index.

In parallel, the market adjusted its expectations: it shifted from contemplating cuts to starting to incorporate a more hawkish scenario, including the possibility of hikes.

Inflation remains the main risk, and the FOMC is not willing to ease monetary policy prematurely, especially in a context of geopolitical uncertainty and economic resilience.

In this scenario, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh will face a significant challenge. Although he has shown a preference for lower rates, he will be in a committee where there is no consensus to move in that direction, and where the balance of risks still leans towards maintaining or even tightening monetary policy.

🚨🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran: The president says "all avenues remain open" to avoid war - Reuters

Masoud Pezeshkian claims that "forcing the country to capitulate through coercion is nothing but an illusion" and that diplomacy is a "much wiser, safer, and more sustainable" path than conflict.

🛢️🔻🇮🇷 Oil drops 5% as three super tankers try to cross the Strait of Hormuz

Brent crude falls to $105 per barrel, and the ships heading to China and South Korea spark hopes for a rebound in energy flows.

🔹🛥️🇮🇷 Iran is rolling out a multi-tier system for releasing vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, according to Reuters.

The system may involve agreements between governments, strict oversight by the Iranian authorities, and sometimes fees in exchange for a safe passage.

This new Iranian mechanism prioritizes ships linked to its allies, Russia and China, followed by countries like India and Pakistan, which have close ties with Tehran.

Europa
🟢 🇩🇪DAX +1,01% 24.675,89
🟢 🇬🇧FTSE 100 +0,78% 10.411,15
🟢 🇫🇷CAC 40 +1,59% 8.108,36
🟢 🇪🇸IBEX 35 +1,78% 17.983,96
🟢 🇪🇺Euro Stoxx 50 +1,83% 5.959,95

Estados Unidos (spot)
🟢 🇺🇸S&P 500 +0,93% 7.422,63
🟢 🇺🇸Nasdaq +1,30% 26.201,83
🟢 🇺🇸Dow Jones +0,90% 49.803,79
🟢 🇺🇸Russell 2000 +1,98% 2.801,51
🔴 🇺🇸VIX -1,50% 17,79