Crypto十三东生
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Crypto十三东生
对我而言，Web3不仅是技术演进，更是生产关系的变革。
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API price comparison among domestic and international large model vendors: what are the gaps?
After sorting through the data, we find that in terms of API pricing, domestic vendors generally offer lower prices than their international counterparts. In particular, DeepSeek has a clear price advantage over its peers. However, although the price war for AI coding has already started, pricing is only one of the measures for large models, and it cannot fully determine the final outcome of the AI coding market.
After sorting through the data, we find that in terms of API pricing, domestic vendors generally offer lower prices than their international counterparts. In particular, DeepSeek has a clear price advantage over its peers. However, although the price war for AI coding has already started, pricing is only one of the measures for large models, and it cannot fully determine the final outcome of the AI coding market.
Middle East: Fighting while talking—the Strait of Hormuz is the key variable
Trump said he received a request from Iran and reached a framework agreement (including opening the strait), so the strikes were cancelled. Iran immediately denied it: no agreement was reached; the strait policy has not changed in any way—so long as U.S. hostile actions continue, the strait will remain closed. The Saudi crown prince urged Trump not to fight in the middle. Israel said a ceasefire would not happen unless Hamas disarms.
$CL
The current picture: Trump wants to make a call to end the war → Iran won’t give face → Saudi acts as the mediator → Israel keeps bombing. With the Strait of Hormuz closed → oil prices rise → inflation is hard to bring down → the Federal Reserve dares not cut rates → BTC and risky assets come under pressure. This transmission chain is the most core logic line for understanding today’s market.
Trump said he received a request from Iran and reached a framework agreement (including opening the strait), so the strikes were cancelled. Iran immediately denied it: no agreement was reached; the strait policy has not changed in any way—so long as U.S. hostile actions continue, the strait will remain closed. The Saudi crown prince urged Trump not to fight in the middle. Israel said a ceasefire would not happen unless Hamas disarms.
$CL
The current picture: Trump wants to make a call to end the war → Iran won’t give face → Saudi acts as the mediator → Israel keeps bombing. With the Strait of Hormuz closed → oil prices rise → inflation is hard to bring down → the Federal Reserve dares not cut rates → BTC and risky assets come under pressure. This transmission chain is the most core logic line for understanding today’s market.
AI sector: three brokerages use the same playbook—pullbacks are normal multiple tops
Guangfa Strategy: In A-share history, a “single top” is extremely rare (only once in 2015). Since AI assets are not under pressure from a balance-sheet de-leveraging or a rapid reversal in earnings, “the worst case will still be repeated multiple tops.” After the fast selloff in July, there is still considerable room for correction.
CICC Research: This round of pullback can be likened to the 2000 dot-com bubble. Before the final major top, it has already gone through at least four rounds of sizable corrections. The triggers for this downturn (industry setbacks + macro headwinds + valuation overheating) are highly similar to the dot-com bubble. Stabilization requires three conditions to align: deleveraging, the Fed easing, and earnings report catalysts.
CITIC Securities: In the short term, whether or not the Fed hikes in September will weigh on US stocks; but in the long run, the AI narrative is expected to continue. Refer to the “Productivity and Jobs Working Group”’s positive stance on AI. #Ai
Guangfa Strategy: In A-share history, a “single top” is extremely rare (only once in 2015). Since AI assets are not under pressure from a balance-sheet de-leveraging or a rapid reversal in earnings, “the worst case will still be repeated multiple tops.” After the fast selloff in July, there is still considerable room for correction.
CICC Research: This round of pullback can be likened to the 2000 dot-com bubble. Before the final major top, it has already gone through at least four rounds of sizable corrections. The triggers for this downturn (industry setbacks + macro headwinds + valuation overheating) are highly similar to the dot-com bubble. Stabilization requires three conditions to align: deleveraging, the Fed easing, and earnings report catalysts.
CITIC Securities: In the short term, whether or not the Fed hikes in September will weigh on US stocks; but in the long run, the AI narrative is expected to continue. Refer to the “Productivity and Jobs Working Group”’s positive stance on AI. #Ai
Three top-tier brokers all spoke today: the AI pullback isn’t the finish line—it’s just the bumps along the way. Guangfa said, "Worst case is still a multi-top." CICC compared it to the dot-com bubble in 2000 (before the major top, there were at least four big pullbacks). CITIC said, "The AI narrative over the long term is expected to continue." People climbing the mountain shout "We’ve reached the top" from halfway up, but anyone who has seen the map knows there’s still road ahead. Taco
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It’s that time again—weekend time. Next week, the focus will be on Friday’s non-farm payrolls data (most likely a negative factor). The last time it was positive was because oil prices had dropped significantly at the time, making the data look a bit better. This time, oil prices have risen again, and with the stock market turbulence in July, this data likely won’t look good.
Let’s talk about the rate-hike situation. This week’s policy meeting kept rates unchanged and did not raise them. If that’s the case, the odds of a rate hike pushed further into the future will only keep increasing. You can understand this as: if they don’t hike this time, they might hike next time—something along those lines.
Now let’s discuss the storage-sector行情. After a massive drop, we saw an oversold rebound of more than 40%—this is the first time in history. I’ve never seen a single day with such a huge surge. And the situation in the Korean stock market is even more extreme: the KOSPI index plunged 15% the day before, then jumped up 17% and closed higher the next day—truly unbelievable.
So, is this rebound a bottoming process? That’s what many people are asking right now. As everyone knows, I’m a technical-analysis person. Looking at it technically: after the rebound, prices tend to give back about half of the gains. If it is indeed a bottoming market, then prices could rise from this level. If it isn’t bottoming, prices may continue to push down to test the next lower low. I’m leaning toward the second scenario—meaning it’s quite possible we’ll see another round of probing lower.
Since the overall trend of the Nasdaq is in a correction cycle, I expect the Nasdaq 100 index to return to the 580–610 range. If the broader market moves downward and the market breaks lower, it’s hard to fight it. The strategy would be to stay on the sidelines and wait until the pullback creates opportunities—if no opportunity comes, then just look for short-term trades.
Bitcoin’s technical picture has become increasingly clear over the past two days. As long as 67,500 here is not broken through, there is a very high likelihood of a top and then a sell-off wave. Based on time-and-space measures, the move is expected to drop to around 49,000–53,000 in the period around 8.10 to 8.15. As for Ethereum, the descending triangle falling-wedge support has already weakened to around 1,380—this is the level Ethereum may reach in the short to mid term… I’ll wait and see for this long six-month long liquidation of longs… $BTC
Let’s talk about the rate-hike situation. This week’s policy meeting kept rates unchanged and did not raise them. If that’s the case, the odds of a rate hike pushed further into the future will only keep increasing. You can understand this as: if they don’t hike this time, they might hike next time—something along those lines.
Now let’s discuss the storage-sector行情. After a massive drop, we saw an oversold rebound of more than 40%—this is the first time in history. I’ve never seen a single day with such a huge surge. And the situation in the Korean stock market is even more extreme: the KOSPI index plunged 15% the day before, then jumped up 17% and closed higher the next day—truly unbelievable.
So, is this rebound a bottoming process? That’s what many people are asking right now. As everyone knows, I’m a technical-analysis person. Looking at it technically: after the rebound, prices tend to give back about half of the gains. If it is indeed a bottoming market, then prices could rise from this level. If it isn’t bottoming, prices may continue to push down to test the next lower low. I’m leaning toward the second scenario—meaning it’s quite possible we’ll see another round of probing lower.
Since the overall trend of the Nasdaq is in a correction cycle, I expect the Nasdaq 100 index to return to the 580–610 range. If the broader market moves downward and the market breaks lower, it’s hard to fight it. The strategy would be to stay on the sidelines and wait until the pullback creates opportunities—if no opportunity comes, then just look for short-term trades.
Bitcoin’s technical picture has become increasingly clear over the past two days. As long as 67,500 here is not broken through, there is a very high likelihood of a top and then a sell-off wave. Based on time-and-space measures, the move is expected to drop to around 49,000–53,000 in the period around 8.10 to 8.15. As for Ethereum, the descending triangle falling-wedge support has already weakened to around 1,380—this is the level Ethereum may reach in the short to mid term… I’ll wait and see for this long six-month long liquidation of longs… $BTC
$GIGGLE Zhuang, protecting the board... 😦. Are you planning to use my money to do charity?
On July 30, #bStocks流动性 7 news, Dune data showed that Binance stock tokens bStocks recorded a trading volume of $6.123 billion over the past week, hitting an all-time high, with an average of 99% of the trading volume concentrated in the Nasdaq 100 ETF stock token QQQ. Notably, since mid-July, bStocks' daily trading volume has grown from over $100 million to the billion-dollar level, mainly driven by QQQ.
In addition, bStocks' total assets under management (AUM) have reached about $680 million, surpassing xStocks' AUM of about $597 million.
In addition, bStocks' total assets under management (AUM) have reached about $680 million, surpassing xStocks' AUM of about $597 million.
Two big juicy stories over at AI
OpenAI reveals secret techniques: GPT-5.6 Sol surges 3x on the ARC-AGI-3 test (just with two settings)
IBM announces it has entered the “quantum advantage” era—quantum computing begins to do “go beyond traditional computers, and be verifiable”
OpenAI reveals secret techniques: GPT-5.6 Sol surges 3x on the ARC-AGI-3 test (just with two settings)
IBM announces it has entered the “quantum advantage” era—quantum computing begins to do “go beyond traditional computers, and be verifiable”
Storage Chips — Management Begins to Self-Rescue
SK Group Chairman Choi Tae-won personally purchased 3,620 shares of SK Hynix (KRW 4.8 billion, first personal increase)
Yesterday, SK Hynix saw a two-day loss of 25%; today, management stepped in personally → a strong signal
Landi Technology (A-share storage leader) spent KRW 40.86 million to repurchase its own shares in the 194–209 yuan range
Industry bottoming signals are emerging in a concentrated way
SK Group Chairman Choi Tae-won personally purchased 3,620 shares of SK Hynix (KRW 4.8 billion, first personal increase)
Yesterday, SK Hynix saw a two-day loss of 25%; today, management stepped in personally → a strong signal
Landi Technology (A-share storage leader) spent KRW 40.86 million to repurchase its own shares in the 194–209 yuan range
Industry bottoming signals are emerging in a concentrated way
#美国再度空袭伊朗革命卫队 Middle East further escalates—Iran says it will strike U.S. troops F-35
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards claim they shot down/destroyed three U.S. F-35 fighter jets (unverified)
A massive explosion in southern Lebanon, and Iran attacks a U.S. military base in Jordan
But at the same time: Pakistan helped Iran work out the deal for Qatar LNG ships’ safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz—talking while fighting
Energy prices swing wildly; crude oil has become a “political baton”
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards claim they shot down/destroyed three U.S. F-35 fighter jets (unverified)
A massive explosion in southern Lebanon, and Iran attacks a U.S. military base in Jordan
But at the same time: Pakistan helped Iran work out the deal for Qatar LNG ships’ safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz—talking while fighting
Energy prices swing wildly; crude oil has become a “political baton”
The Fed blew up—“Volcker era”’s first split. Early-morning decision: keep interest rates unchanged, but three committee members voted for a rate hike. This is the first time there’s been a public internal split after “Vosh” took power (seen by the market as hawkish). In other words: inflation can’t be tamed—some within the central bank are already getting anxious. Gold today surged to the 4100 level, only to be knocked back again (funds are waiting for direction).
The most explosive macro news today isn’t rate hikes or rate cuts—it's three people within the Federal Reserve openly “pressuring” for a rate hike, marking the first split of the Wozh era.
On the Middle East front, Iran calls for shooting down F-35s, while Pakistan turns around and helps negotiate to allow LNG ships to pass.
The storage big shots can’t sit still: SK hynix’s chairman personally scoops up shares for 4.8 billion KRW, while Montage Technology pours 40 million USD into a share buyback.
In times like this, you need to focus on the people who are actually putting real money on the line.
On the Middle East front, Iran calls for shooting down F-35s, while Pakistan turns around and helps negotiate to allow LNG ships to pass.
The storage big shots can’t sit still: SK hynix’s chairman personally scoops up shares for 4.8 billion KRW, while Montage Technology pours 40 million USD into a share buyback.
In times like this, you need to focus on the people who are actually putting real money on the line.
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