Ox 十三东生
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Ox 十三东生
对我而言，Web3不仅是技术演进，更是生产关系的变革。
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今日核心内容总结：
1. 美国小非农（ADP）接近腰斩：7月25日当周ADP新增就业仅0.825万人，前值1.5万人。就业市场明显降温，但还没崩。
2. 美股情绪过热到危险区：富国银行拉警报，说现在美股情绪是2018年以来最狂热，如果周三CPI高于预期、同时就业又差，"滞胀"故事可能回来，市场会剧烈波动。
3. SK海力士要在中国扩NAND产能50%：韩媒消息。存储大厂继续加码，但地缘风险（中美科技博弈）是悬着的剑。
4. CME白银9月11日开24小时交易：跟黄金一样能周末交易，说明贵金属越来越像"全天候避险资产"，对币圈也有情绪联动。
5. AI硬件还在扩产：华阳集团光模块+液冷散热扩产即将投产；IBM砸2.4亿美元在自家云上部署英伟达HGX B300。AI算力基建没停。
1. 美国小非农（ADP）接近腰斩：7月25日当周ADP新增就业仅0.825万人，前值1.5万人。就业市场明显降温，但还没崩。
2. 美股情绪过热到危险区：富国银行拉警报，说现在美股情绪是2018年以来最狂热，如果周三CPI高于预期、同时就业又差，"滞胀"故事可能回来，市场会剧烈波动。
3. SK海力士要在中国扩NAND产能50%：韩媒消息。存储大厂继续加码，但地缘风险（中美科技博弈）是悬着的剑。
4. CME白银9月11日开24小时交易：跟黄金一样能周末交易，说明贵金属越来越像"全天候避险资产"，对币圈也有情绪联动。
5. AI硬件还在扩产：华阳集团光模块+液冷散热扩产即将投产；IBM砸2.4亿美元在自家云上部署英伟达HGX B300。AI算力基建没停。
On-the-day updates
Market Morning News
#贝莱德加拿大推出比特币关联ETF Today’s Signal Quick Read
- **Tightening macro**: The Fed turns hawkish (multiple rate hikes) and geopolitics (Iran) heats up—near term is a headwind for risk assets; but Arthur Hayes’s “yen printing” thesis and BlackRock’s “BTC decouples from US equities” are two bullish cards.
- **On-chain for BTC**: New buyers are close to breaking even, but the batch from the past 3–6 months is still deeply underwater. Yesterday’s ETF net outflow was $145 million (daily data), which isn’t inconsistent with last week’s weekly inflows. A “whale” is caught in a long/short battle around 64,000.
- **ETH main thread**: Vitalik’s roadmap gets a big overhaul (quantum security + privacy + AI). Institutional treasuries (BitMine/Sharplink) keep buying—ETH narratives have more “story” than BTC.
- **AI / compute**: A $500 billion financing plan, Lambda borrowing money to buy chips, and TVB all building data centers—compute expansion is still accelerating, providing long-term support for storage and the chip/compute chain. However, Morgan Stanley warns that “open-source models may reduce unit compute demand.”
- **Regulation**: South Korea tightens controls; the US SEC will review issuance rules on 8/14; Coinbase uses an Abu Dhabi license—regulatory “normalization” is moving on both sides (tighten on one end while licensing on the other).
- **Tightening macro**: The Fed turns hawkish (multiple rate hikes) and geopolitics (Iran) heats up—near term is a headwind for risk assets; but Arthur Hayes’s “yen printing” thesis and BlackRock’s “BTC decouples from US equities” are two bullish cards.
- **On-chain for BTC**: New buyers are close to breaking even, but the batch from the past 3–6 months is still deeply underwater. Yesterday’s ETF net outflow was $145 million (daily data), which isn’t inconsistent with last week’s weekly inflows. A “whale” is caught in a long/short battle around 64,000.
- **ETH main thread**: Vitalik’s roadmap gets a big overhaul (quantum security + privacy + AI). Institutional treasuries (BitMine/Sharplink) keep buying—ETH narratives have more “story” than BTC.
- **AI / compute**: A $500 billion financing plan, Lambda borrowing money to buy chips, and TVB all building data centers—compute expansion is still accelerating, providing long-term support for storage and the chip/compute chain. However, Morgan Stanley warns that “open-source models may reduce unit compute demand.”
- **Regulation**: South Korea tightens controls; the US SEC will review issuance rules on 8/14; Coinbase uses an Abu Dhabi license—regulatory “normalization” is moving on both sides (tighten on one end while licensing on the other).
Market Updates Today’s Headlines
Today’s Market Morning News
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Latest report claims that when Jeff Dean left, Demis Hassabis originally planned to pack up and leave, but Google stopped him. $GOOGLB
### U.S. Politics / Trump
- What has Trump been busy with over the past 24 hours? (2026-08-09)
> 1. If the Democrats win the House, they may investigate Trump—four people familiar with the matter say that Democratic members of the U.S. House are preparing for the possibility of regaining control and are developing a broad investigative strategy aimed at targeting the businesses and financial institutions around Trump.
> 2. Freezing the oil tycoon Sagint’s assets— the Trump administration is increasing pressure on Florida oil tycoon and Republican donor Harry Sagin III. The U.S. Treasury has frozen assets of offshore companies under his control that are involved in Venezuela oil production projects.
> 3. Team audio removed after a takedown by Taylor Swift—successful copyright claims resulted in the audio being muted and removed from the relevant videos.
> 4. Backlash after Brunch’s election as attorney general—Senate Minority Leader Schumer said that if someone wants to eliminate corruption, they can’t let the president’s personal lawyer serve as attorney general.
- What has Trump been busy with over the past 24 hours? (2026-08-09)
> 1. If the Democrats win the House, they may investigate Trump—four people familiar with the matter say that Democratic members of the U.S. House are preparing for the possibility of regaining control and are developing a broad investigative strategy aimed at targeting the businesses and financial institutions around Trump.
> 2. Freezing the oil tycoon Sagint’s assets— the Trump administration is increasing pressure on Florida oil tycoon and Republican donor Harry Sagin III. The U.S. Treasury has frozen assets of offshore companies under his control that are involved in Venezuela oil production projects.
> 3. Team audio removed after a takedown by Taylor Swift—successful copyright claims resulted in the audio being muted and removed from the relevant videos.
> 4. Backlash after Brunch’s election as attorney general—Senate Minority Leader Schumer said that if someone wants to eliminate corruption, they can’t let the president’s personal lawyer serve as attorney general.
Market updates: every time, I have to manually remind workbuddy to fetch the news.
My work buddy is not obedient and I have to send it manually every time
Market Updates - Fast News of the Day
Tonight’s non-farm payrolls are the biggest variable this week (expected 80K / unemployment rate 4.2%), but what’s even more noteworthy is that Trump suddenly softened—going from “don’t blame the White House” to “it’s not your fault, it’s the politicized council.” Pressure from hawks has also been split. Meanwhile, Chengchen’s VPD chips have passed Samsung’s validation; clients of Winstar have already seen demand for 2027–2028. Yesterday, South Korea’s memory market plunged; today, domestic components have made a breakthrough, further widening the divergence. The central bank is still stockpiling gold (China has bought for 21 straight months). Oil prices are down 2%, but winter energy risks haven’t disappeared.
The First Photo of Autumn
Market Morning News
Binance Vision Evening News
So high?
Many people in the crypto world fantasize about going the “C-route,” getting rich with high compounding returns using a very small amount of capital. In reality, you have to endure a long period of time without making money; most people can’t last, and it’s easy to get liquidated and lose everything.
槐序十七
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You definitely know the answer—those who have come out of the crypto world are not ordinary people.
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