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$HOT 24 hours up 31%, but the funding rate has already surged above 0.1%. The last time this kind of setup happened was before the peak of last year’s bull market, and it fell 40% three days later.

The Fear & Greed Index is currently 85, on the right side of the greed zone. Historical data shows that after extreme greed, 90% of cases see at least a 15% pullback within 7 days. 24h trading volume is 39.8M, up 3x from the average of the previous 5 days. This is not a healthy rise, but a signal that retail FOMO is rushing in.

I ran a simple test using the Fear & Greed Index + funding rate as dual indicators: when fear & greed >80 and funding rate >0.05%, it is marked as a “sentiment turning point.” In the past 12 signals, 11 times a local top appeared within 3 days. HOT is currently at 0.0004, and the 24h high is exactly 0.0004, which means the bulls are pushing hard, but buying momentum is almost exhausted.

So how should you act next? If you’re holding HOT, it’s recommended to place sell orders in batches between 0.00038 and 0.0004, with a stop loss at 0.00035. If you’re in cash, don’t chase; wait until this wave of sentiment cools down to below 70 on the Fear & Greed Index before considering a long position. If you must trade it, the stop loss must be strict, because volatility at this level is extremely high.

My personal rule: only trade sentiment turning points, and don’t be greedy for the last 10% of the move. If HOT falls back to around 0.0003 this time, I may re-enter, but chasing longs now is equivalent to taking someone else’s bag.
Sentiment turning point = best entry.

new day new box

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CZ—Zhao Changpeng stands at the peak of a multi-billion-dollar enterprise, then suffers a massive blow: a $400 million fine, four months in prison, and the subsequent decline of his business. He has an exceptionally strong ability to handle pressure. Faced with this crushing defeat, he does not complain about external factors; instead, he takes responsibility for the consequences of his own mistakes, accepts reality, and lets go of inner resentment and regret.
CZ does not tie his self-worth to wealth and fame. He faces the drastic drop in his net worth calmly and maintains a balanced mindset. When the crisis hits, he stays clear-headed, proactively hands over the company’s management to limit losses, and prevents risks from continuing to grow.
CZ sheds the halo of his past achievements. He does not care about public opinion and deeply reviews the lessons from his failures. He withdraws from the original industry and shifts his focus to investing and public welfare.

This incident teaches us: life’s ups and downs are hard to predict. If you make a mistake, you must dare to take responsibility, change direction in time, and don’t let a single failure negate yourself—so you can get out of your predicament.

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$BTC 🧧July 3: BTC made a modest rebound to around $61,800.🧧 In the morning, it rose slightly; the Fed’s hawkish stance kept the larger trend weak.🧧 Trading volume is insufficient, so the rebound lacks momentum. In the short term, $62,400 is a strong resistance level. Watch closely for support at $59,700 below.

Red candles continue in a steady run, the moving averages all form golden crossovers, hold onto profits, keep hold of the principal, and achieve steady, reliable earnings throughout the entire day #比特币经历2022年来最差上半年 $TAG

🚨Bitcoin just broke below $59,000 again and continues to show weakness.

This is happening despite relative stability in US, Japan, and South Korea markets.

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💥People in the crypto world who are still stubbornly holding on—must read 《The Art of Payment Wars》

Written in firsthand account by PayPal employee #27, covering everything from the company’s founding to going public to being acquired—no empty motivational talk, only a real battlefield of surviving by inches.

Back then, PayPal:
Fought the money-burning war with competitors until it was out of funds
Dealt with regulators in high-stakes confrontations, step by step
Internal disagreements tore the company apart, while the outside world constantly sang its downfall
One wrong step means being doomed forever

It’s exactly like today’s crypto market—
The bear market grinds down until belief collapses, the regulatory iron fist comes in round after round, project homogeneity is rolled into numbness, and retail investors lose until all they want is to close up and get out.

The most gut-wrenching truths in the book:
Starting a business is never a smooth, instant journey—it’s a series of breakouts, forcing a way out of deathly circumstances.

And what is the crypto world if not a financial war without gunpowder?
In bull markets you make money on luck; in bear markets you prove your real skill.
When the whole internet turns bearish, you hold onto your conviction; when the market grinds you down, you control your hands; when the shakeout arrives, you make it through.

Back then nobody believed PayPal could succeed—yet it ended up running out a legend spanning half of Silicon Valley;
now the crypto world is full of laments—exactly the window period for real players to accumulate positions and build real capabilities.
The ones filtered out are always speculators; the ones who remain are the ones worthy to eat the cycle’s dividends.

Life is your own war, and so is the crypto world.
Hang in there—you’ll beat the vast majority of people.

#币圈 #熊市生存法则 #bStocks正式上线 #以太坊跌5.6%至1555美元 #SOL一个月下跌20%

Risk Warning: This article is for reading reflections and sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice.

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