Mohamed A. El-Erian Re-poster

Please find below the monthly performance table for major asset classes.
Dispersion, one of my three core themes for the year, was on full display in February.
While global equity markets saw the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq slip into the red, those losses were offset by significant rallies in Europe, Japan, and China.
There was also a striking divergence between Gold and Bitcoin; while both saw double-digit changes during the month, they moved in diametrically opposite directions.
Meanwhile, Oil continued its steady c2026 limb, ending the month in positive territory.
#economy #markets #stocks #bonds #oil #gold #bitcoin

The atmosphere surrounding artificial intelligence has shifted dramatically compared to last year. This change is underscored by the news this morning concerning the Block layoffs, as well as President Trump’s recent declaration to limit the U.S. government’s relationship with Anthropic. While the narrative in 2025 centered on the unlimited potential of teams working ON AI, the conversation has now evolved to the more intricate challenge of working WITH AI. We are seeing this play out through various lenses, ranging from volatile sector-specific troubles to broader geo-economic issues.
#economy #markets #AI @anthropic

Identificēt katalizatorus, kas ir aiz pašreizējās riska samazināšanas noskaņas tirgos, ir salīdzinoši vienkārši. Šī piesardzīgā atmosfēra ir novedis pie akciju krituma un piespiedusi 10-gadu ASV Valsts kases ienesīgumu nokrist zem 4% sliekšņa. Daudzi atšķirīgi faktori veicina šo tendenci. Ģeopolitikas jomā mēs esam liecinieki pastiprinātām spriedzēm starp Irānu un ASV, kā arī starp Afganistānu un Pakistānu. Ekonomiskās bažas arī spēlē nozīmīgu lomu, īpaši attiecībā uz bezdarbu, pēc Block paziņojuma, ka tas plāno samazināt savu darbinieku skaitu par 40%. Visbeidzot, finanšu rādītāji signalizē brīdinājuma signālus privātā kredīta sektoros attīstītajās valstīs, ko veicina krāpšanas, norakstījumu un vaļīgu kredītreģistrācijas standartu ziņas.
#ekonomika #tirgi #privātkredīts #ģeopolitika #darbs #bezdarbs

My thoughts on "What Will the Fed’s 'Warsh Era' Bring?"
As detailed below, the federal funds rate is only part of the story. Its legacy will depend more on its ability to overhaul the Fed's operational machinery and strengthen the underpinnings of balance-sheet policy.
https://t.co/tvdLCV2Hyd
#economy #federalreserve #markets @ProSyn

The US PPI report came in hotter than expected, particularly for the core measure.
January core PPI rose 0.8%, significantly surpassing the 0.3% consensus and marking the highest monthly increase since March 2022.
The headline figure also exceeded expectations at 0.5% (against a 0.3% forecast).
These monthly prints have pushed annual PPI inflation well above consensus estimates, especially for the core measure, which now stands at 3.6% (vs 3.0%).
#economy #inflation #markets

.@nvidia #ai #economy #markets @FT

The February data for US consumer confidence delivered a pleasant surprise. Surpassing the consensus prediction of 86.8, the composite index reached 91.2. This marks an improvement over the revised prior reading of 89.0, which was originally reported as 84.5. What stands out is that this overall increase occurred despite a dip in the current conditions sub-index. Consequently, the upward movement was powered solely by rising hopefulness regarding the future outlook. In terms of inflation, however, the view remains persistent, as median expectations remained unchanged at 4.4%.

#economy #markets #confidence #sentiment #growth #inflation

Hello everyone.

Attention is currently focused on the Japanese Yen, which fell roughly 1% relative to the US Dollar in early trading. This drop occurred after domestic news outlets reported that Prime Minister Takaichi expressed a firmer opposition to interest rate increases during her discussions with Governor Ueda of the central bank.

We observed a fascinating immediate reaction in the form of a twin sell-off, characterized by the currency weakening while bond yields climbed. Although such market behavior is typically characteristic of developing nations, similar patterns emerged in the US during the previous year under comparable conditions.

The critical issue to watch is the degree to which Japan's new, stimulus-focused government will attempt to pressure the BoJ into compliance. In the years following the Global Financial Crisis of 2008, central banks in developed nations acted as the sole authority on policy. However, the current environment is changing, with these institutions facing increasing political resistance in advanced economies.

#economy #markets #japan #boj #centralbanks

There is a significant amount of commentary, much of it quite confident, regarding the precise impact of the new tariff framework introduced by the US Administration this past weekend. Readers should approach these viewpoints with skepticism because this policy is far from its final state. The replacement for IEEPA is strictly temporary. It also produces a range of unintended side effects, which include penalizing friendly nations while simultaneously reducing the strain on adversaries. You should expect the tariff landscape to shift further in the upcoming weeks as the administration activates different authorities. Consequently, this environment of uncertainty is hindering corporate decision-making processes and influencing countries engaged in trade discussions, a point highlighted by the EU announcement.
#economy #trade #tariffs #markets

Businesses and financial markets are currently in the process of evaluating the precise consequences of the developing US tariff regime. Against this backdrop, gold has experienced an early morning surge, with prices reaching roughly $5,150. You can view the trajectory in the CNBC chart presented below.
#economy #markets #gold

Sveicināti visi.

Zemāk jūs atradīsiet piekļuvi manai jaunākajai nedēļas analīzei par globālo ekonomiku un tirgiem. Šis atjauninājums koncentrējas uz pagājušās nedēļas notikumu interpretāciju un izklāsta, ko gaidīt nākamajās dienās.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/weekly-look-global-economy-markets-mohamed-el-erian-w9nie
https://mohamedelerian.substack.com/publish/posts/detail/188812734?referrer=%2Fpublish%2Fposts%2Fpublished

#ekonomika #tirgi

Papildus @WSJ izvirzītajiem punktiem ir svarīgi izcelt uzdevumus, kas gaida korporatīvās struktūras. Kad atjaunotā tarifa ainava nostabilizēsies, uzņēmumiem būs jānosaka, ko tieši ietver jaunie noteikumi. Konkrēti, šī analīze prasa izprast, kā modificētie noteikumi ietekmēs atsevišķas ģeogrāfiskās reģionus un tirgus sektorus.
#ekonomika #tirdzniecība #tarifi #tirgi

Determining liability and ownership is central to the intense conversations surrounding the IEEPA Supreme Court decision. With a staggering $133 billion in potential tariff refunds at stake, this topic is generating widespread discussion and is set to move into judicial venues in the near future. Uncertainty also surrounds the future structure of these trade duties, particularly as the Administration investigates at least three alternative legal paths. While Secretary Bessent has implied that the aggregate volume of tariff collections might remain unchanged by the end of the year, the specific impact on individual businesses and market sectors could look vastly different.

#economy #tariffs #trade

Noteikšana precīzām finansiālajām saistībām starp pusēm ir kļuvusi par kritisku jautājumu. Sarunas šobrīd ir koncentrētas uz IEEPA Augstākās tiesas lēmumu un tā ietekmi uz potenciālajiem tarifa atgriezumiem, kas sastāda $133 miljardus, tēma, kas rada diskusijas daudzos aprindās un drīz sasniegs tiesas. Ir arī ievērojama neskaidrība par nākotnes tirdzniecības režīma ainavu, ņemot vērā, ka Administrācija seko vismaz trim alternatīviem juridiskiem ceļiem. Kamēr sekretārs Besents ir norādījis, ka kopējie tarifa ieņēmumi var palikt nemainīgi gada beigās, faktiskais slogs, kas tiek uzlikts individuālām kompānijām un nozares sektoriem, var izskatīties pavisam citādi.
#ekonomika #tarifi #tirdzniecība

We have a new development regarding US tariffs. The Supreme Court has decided against specific elements of the policy set forth by the administration. This places the burden of action back on the administration itself. The outcome will now be determined by their willingness and capacity to enact tariffs through different legal avenues. #economy #tariffs #markets

While recent economic reports from Japan and Europe have been encouraging, the latest figures out of the United States fell short of expectations in two key areas.

First, the Gross Domestic Product for Q4 expanded at an annualized rate of just 1.4%. This represents a significant decline from the 4.4% growth seen in Q3 and misses the consensus prediction of 2.8% by a notable margin. As a result, the growth rate for the full year of 2025 sits at 2.2%, a decrease from the 2.8% achieved in 2024. Analysts will likely scrutinize the weak data surrounding government impulse and personal consumption, while political discussions are expected to revolve around the consequences of the recent government shutdown.

Second, inflation remains sticky. Core PCE, the preferred measure for the Fed, climbed 0.4% for the month. This increase drives the annual rate to 3.0%, which is hotter than the consensus estimate of 2.9%.

#economy #growth #inflation #markets

According to Bloomberg. #economy #markets #centralbanks

It has been a bright start to the day for advanced economies, with five separate data releases performing better than expected.

Starting in Asia, Japan saw headline inflation for January slow to 1.5%, a figure that was softer than anticipated. Notably, this represents the first instance in nearly four years where the rate has dipped beneath the target set by the central bank.

In Europe, the Eurozone PMI outperformed consensus forecasts. This achievement was driven by a significant turnaround in Germany, where the manufacturing sector entered expansion territory for the first time in almost four years.

Meanwhile, the UK delivered a trio of strong updates. January saw the largest budget surplus on record, thanks to a combination of lower debt-service payments and rising tax revenues. This financial boost provides the government with substantial headroom within its fiscal rules, offering valuable flexibility for the final quarter of the fiscal year.

Further strengthening the British outlook, the January PMI increased to 53.9. This result topped the consensus prediction of 53.2 and stands as the strongest reading in nearly two years. Finally, retail sales in the UK surged by 1.8% in January, shattering the forecasted 0.2% rise. This marks the fastest pace of growth for the sector in almost two years.

#economy #markets #Japan #UK #Germany #Europe

According to the @FT, shares of leading private investment managers on Wall Street fell on Thursday. This market reaction occurred after Blue Owl permanently restricted investors from exiting a debt fund meant for retail clients, causing concern across the industry.
#markets #privatecredit #blueowl #investing #investors

Emily Peck of Axios highlights new statistics derived from ADP data that align with other, though not entirely universal, signs of a softening workforce landscape. The report indicates that the substantial pay raises previously associated with changing jobs have decreased to their lowest point since 2020. In terms of specific figures, the median wage growth for employees who stayed with their current companies rose by 4.5% over the past year. Conversely, the increase for workers jumping to new employers was recorded at 6.4%. #econmy #jobs #employment #umeployment