Cointelegraph

Members of the US Senate Banking Committee are expected to move forward with consideration of a digital asset market structure bill in the second week of January after months of delays.

According to reports and people familiar with the matter, the Banking Committee could hold a markup for the Responsible Financial Innovation Act during the second week of January. The event would mark progress on advancing legislation that has been slowed by Democratic lawmakers’ concerns over decentralized finance, and the longest US government shutdown in history.

Cody Carbone, CEO of digital asset advocacy organization The Digital Chamber, told Cointelegraph that “the second week of January will have at least one markup on pending market structure legislation in the Senate.” The US Senate Agriculture Committee is also considering its version of the market structure bill before any potential floor vote in the chamber.

The market structure bill, which passed the US House of Representatives in July as the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (CLARITY), is expected to give the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) more authority in regulating digital assets. Early drafts of the Senate bill signaled more collaboration between the CFTC and Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) over cryptocurrency regulation.

It’s unclear whether the legislation will have enough support to pass in the Senate, should it be presented for a floor vote. Republican Senator Thom Tillis said in October that the start of campaigning for the 2026 midterm elections could likely hamper progress on crypto bills, including market structure. 

Prominent advocate of market structure bill leaving Congress

In addition to political concerns, one of the Senate bill’s most outspoken proponents, Wyoming Senator Cynthia Lummis, said on Dec. 19 that she would not seek reelection in 2026.

The lawmaker, who will have served one term in the Senate, said her energy didn’t “match up” with what was required to be able to serve for another six years. She continued to push for support for the bill following her announcement.

Source: Cynthia Lummis

Magazine: When privacy and AML laws conflict: Crypto projects’ impossible choice

Katru otro nedēļu visā 2025. gadā AI Eye sleja apkopoja visus svarīgos un revolucionāros attīstības notikumus mākslīgajā intelektā... un pēc tam tos pilnībā ignorēja, lai koncentrētos uz dīvainajiem un brīnišķīgajiem stāstiem par LLM, kas rīkojas neparasti, dziļiem viltotajiem attēliem un negaidītajām sekām, atbrīvojot šo svešo tehnoloģiju uz sabiedrību, kas pat nav tuvu gatava tam.

Šeit ir deviņas no dīvainākajām izcelšanām no pagājušā gada AI Eye:

1. Kā padarīt ChatGPT ļaunu (vai mīlēt pūces)

Investīciju banku uzņēmums Keefe, Bruyette & Woods ir kļuvis optimistiskāks par Bitcoin ieguves uzņēmumu TeraWulf, norādot uz to, ko tas uzskata par tuvojošos pārmaiņu uzņēmuma biznesa maisījumā, kuru investori vēl nav pilnībā novērtējuši.

Trešdienas ziņojumā KBW paziņoja, ka paaugstinājusi TeraWulf (WULF) vērtējumu no “izcila” uz “tirgus izpildījums” un paaugstinājusi uzņēmuma akciju cenu mērķi līdz 24 $ no 9.50 $.

Saskaņā ar banku, pārvērtēšana tika balstīta uz investoru “neapzināšanās par BTC ieguves līdz HPC [augstas veiktspējas datorsistēmas] nomas maisījuma maiņas apmēru 2026-2027. gadā un ievērojamiem izaugsmes katalizatoriem par 646MW tīrā redzamā HPC nomas cauruļvadā līdz 2027. gadam."

Galvenie secinājumi

JPMorgan tokenizēja naudas tirgus fondu un ieviesa to Ethereum galvenajā tīklā.

Fonds tur US Valsts obligācijas un valsts garantētus repo darījumus, ar ikdienas dividendes reinvestēšanu.

Publiskais Ethereum novieto MONY blakus stabilajām valūtām, tokenizētām valsts obligācijām un esošajai onchain likviditātei.

Tagad uzmanība tiek pievērsta nodrošinājuma izmantošanai, sekundārajām pārskaitījumiem un vai citi lielie bankas sekos.

JPMorgan Asset Management ir ievietojis ļoti tradicionālu produktu Ethereum blokķēdē: tokenizētu naudas tirgus fondu, ko sauc par My OnChain Net Yield Fund (MONY).

Galvenie secinājumi

Nesen šķīrušais Bitcoin investors zaudēja visu savu pensiju fondu, vienu pilnu Bitcoin, AI vadītā romantiskā krāpšanā, ko organizēja sarežģīts noziedznieks, izmantojot dziļos viltus.

Cūku izciršanas krāpšanas ir attiecību balstītas krāpšanas, kas paļaujas uz emocionālu manipulāciju un AI ģenerētām dziļajām viltošanām, lai veidotu uzticību pirms maksimāla finansiālā labuma iegūšanas no upuriem.

Krāpnieks izmantoja AI, lai izveidotu sintētiskas portretus un veiktu reāllaika dziļo viltus video zvanus, padarot izdomāto attiecību praktiski neatšķiramu no realitātes.

Pēc 2024. gada vēlēšanām, kurās aptuveni 270 likumdevēji ar labvēlīgiem viedokļiem par digitālajiem aktīviem ieguva vietas ASV Kongresā, daudzas kriptovalūtu saistītās organizācijas un politiskās rīcības komitejas nerāda nekādas pazīmes, ka palēninātu savu progresu nākamajās nozīmīgajās vēlēšanās, 2026. gada vidus vēlēšanās.

Iespējams, ka to veicināja advokātu darba organizācijas — piemēram, Coinbase saistītais Stand With Crypto grupas un kuru kampaņas tika atbalstītas ar mediju pirkumiem no politiskajām rīcības komitejām (PACs) — vairākums likumdevēju 119. ASV Kongresa sesijā stājās amatā janvārī, jau izsakot viedokļus, kas norādīja, ka viņi atbalstīs pro-kriptovalūtu likumdošanu un politiku.

Stratēģijas izpilddirektors Maikls Seilors un citi izcili kriptovalūtu vadītāji zaudēja miljardus dolāru 2025. gadā, daļēji kā zaudējumu rezultātā oktobra straujā sabrukumā.

Saskaņā ar Bloomberg miljardieru indeksu, kas publicēts trešdien, Seilors zaudēja 2,6 miljardus dolāru iepriekšējo 12 mēnešu laikā, samazinot savu neto vērtību līdz 3,8 miljardiem dolāru. Gemini līdzdibinātāji Kamerons un Tailers Vinklevoši, kā arī bijušais Binance izpilddirektors Čangs “CZ” Džao arī piedzīvoja ievērojamus zaudējumus, ņemot vērā “masveida kritumu” kriptovalūtu tirgū oktobrī.

Bitcoin is likely headed for a challenging 2026, with many analysts expecting the cryptocurrency to extend its late-2025 downturn. Yet even as prices soften, early adopters say the coming year could mark a turning point for Bitcoin’s real-world utility, as payment infrastructure continues to mature and using BTC as a medium of exchange becomes simpler and more accessible.

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) may bottom out at about $60,000 in Q4 2026, presenting a buying opportunity, according to early Bitcoin investor Michael Terpin. Terpin forecast:

"The end of 2026 will be a great time to buy, as market lows based on fear slowly give way to massive buying in 2028 and 2029 after the next halving leads to potential supply shock."

Bitcoin is on track to close 2025 lower than at the start of the year, breaking the four-year cycle theory that has dominated BTC market analysis over the last decade. Source: Block1 Capital

Bitcoin still has about a 20% chance of forming new highs before the cycle low, but these odds are dropping with each passing month, Terpin said. 

A new Federal Reserve chair should ease macroeconomic conditions by lowering interest rates, but if the Republican Party fails to secure both chambers of Congress in the 2026 US midterm elections, it will “cripple” the pro-crypto regulatory environment, Terpin said.

The year 2025 was widely forecast to be seismic for Bitcoin’s price, with several analysts forecasting BTC from $180,000 to $250,000 by the end of 2025, while BTC is on track to close the year at a lower price than the highs above $100,000 recorded in January.

Bitcoin’s price action over the last year. Source: CoinMarketCap

Despite the slump, Bitcoin payments infrastructure and use cases will grow in 2026

"2025 made Bitcoin easier to hold and earn yield on,” said early Bitcoin adopter and blockchain software developer Rich Rines. “2026 should make it easier to actually use.”

Bitcoin neobanks, digital infrastructure companies that provide online banking services, and Bitcoin-backed stablecoins will boost Bitcoin’s use as a medium of exchange, Rines said.

Payments company Square integrated Bitcoin payments into its point of sale systems, allowing merchants to accept BTC as payment and automatically convert 1% of their total sales to BTC, if desired.

The Bitcoin Lightning Network whitepaper. Source: Bitcoin Lightning Network

The Bitcoin Lightning Network, a layer-2 scaling solution that allows BTC to be used for payments, reduces friction by opening up payment channels between parties, with only the net balance of the payment channel posting to the BTC ledger in one final transaction. 

The Lightning Network could capture 5% of stablecoin flows by 2028, Graham Krizek, founder of Lightning Network payment company Voltage, told Cointelegraph.

Magazine: Big Questions: Did a time-traveling AI invent Bitcoin?

Galvenie punkti:

Bitcoin ir atpalicis no zelta un S&P 500 kopš novembra, bet analītiķi sagaida pieaugumu uz jauniem visu laiku augstumiem 2026. gadā.

Vairāki lielie altkoīni rāda pazīmes, ka sāk īstermiņa atgūšanos.

Bitcoin (BTC) joprojām ir iestrēdzis 86,400 līdz 90,600 dolāru diapazonā, norādot uz līdzsvaru starp piedāvājumu un pieprasījumu.

BTC ir bijis lēnāks par citām aktīvu klasēm, piemēram, zeltu un S&P 500, kopš novembra, bet tirgus izlūkošanas platforma Santiment teica ierakstā X, ka ir “iespēja kriptovalūtām panākt atpalicību.”

Bitcoin’s price continued to fall as 2025 neared its end, declining 4% in December.

Despite a slump in markets, Strategy capped off the year with massive Bitcoin buys. In December alone, the software company turned Bitcoin investment vehicle picked up over 22,000 Bitcoin (BTC).

In the US, prediction markets are inking deals with major media outlets and scoring approvals from major federal agencies. However, in 11 states, gambling and gaming regulators are taking legal action against platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. Watchdogs state that such markets constitute a form of gambling, a claim the companies themselves dispute.

As crypto grows more mainstream, hackers and scammers are increasingly targeting investors and protocols. In December, crypto exploits topped $22.5 million. Chainalysis also released its annual scam report, stating that crypto thefts hit $3.4 billion in 2025.

Here’s December by the numbers:

Strategy accumulates over 22,000 Bitcoin

Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin investment vehicle, Strategy, picked up another stack of Bitcoin in December. The publicly traded company bought 22,628 BTC this month, according to Strategy’s Bitcoin purchase disclosures.

This brings the company’s total Bitcoin holdings to 672,497 BTC, or roughly 3.3% of the 19.9 million Bitcoin currently in circulation.

The purchases in December capped off a year of aggressive accumulation by Strategy. The company disclosed Bitcoin purchases in 41 separate weeks of 2025. That’s a marked increase from 18 weeks in 2024 and just eight in 2023.

Strategy’s success in offering debt to fund new Bitcoin purchases has inspired other companies to become “Bitcoin treasury firms” — i.e., companies that hold Bitcoin on their balance sheets. According to BitcoinTreasuries.net, 192 public companies hold almost 1.1 million BTC in their treasuries.

Bitcoin price slumps 4%

Bitcoin’s price fell over 4% this month and is trading at $88,000 at publishing time. The asset is slated to end the year down below where it started, around $94,000, and well below its all-time high of $124,000 set in October.

Date as collected and current as of Dec. 30.

Some traders say that Bitcoin is set for further losses, possibly down to $40,000; that is, if the traditionally understood four-year boom-and-bust cycle is still intact.

Not everyone is convinced, though. Nick Ruck, director of LVRG Research, previously told Cointelegraph that institutional demand through things like exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and corporate treasuries has softened the blow.

“While the bull market may face near-term consolidation amid macroeconomic pressures, we anticipate it will extend into 2026 with support from ongoing structural inflows and evolving market dynamics,” he said.

Betting markets face legal battles in 11 states

Betting markets are making headway in the US. On Dec. 4, CNBC signed a contract with Kalshi to integrate real-time forecasting data from the betting market on CNBC’s TV, digital and subscription platforms.

But state regulators are not pleased. That same week, Connecticut’s Department of Consumer Protection sent letters to Kalshi, Crypto.com and Robinhood, ordering them to cease operations in the state. There are now 11 states in which prediction markets are facing legal action from regulators.

Kalshi similarly received cease-and-desist letters in Ohio, Illinois, Arizona, Montana and New York. Regulators in those states cited that the market was offering unlicensed gambling, a claim that Kalshi rejects.

In Massachusetts, state prosecutors claim that Kalshi has disguised sports betting as “event contracts.” Kalshi said the state is “trying to block Kalshi’s innovations by relying on outdated laws and ideas.”

A spokesperson for the company previously told Cointelegraph, “It’s very different from what state-regulated sportsbooks and casinos offer their customers. We are confident in our legal arguments and have filed suit in federal court.”

Scammers stole $22.5 million in crypto in December

In December, hackers made away with $22.5 million across 10 incidents, according to data from DefiLlama, a drop in the bucket compared with other months this year.

In February, hackers stole $1.4 billion in assets from the crypto exchange Bybit. Blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis said in its annual crypto hack report that this year’s crypto thefts totaled $3.4 billion. It added that personal wallet attacks have “grown substantially, increasing from just 7.3% of total stolen value in 2022 to 44% in 2024. In 2025, the share would have been 37% if it weren’t for the outsized impact of the Bybit attack.”

Sophisticated attacks from state-sponsored actors have been a particular problem for large, centralized organizations like crypto exchanges. Cybercriminals associated with the government of North Korea reportedly stole $2.02 billion in cryptocurrency this year.

RWAs overtook DEXs with $19 billion in distributed asset value

The total distributed asset value of real-world assets (RWAs) rose 3% in December, surpassing $19 billion. The largest section of these assets is tokenized US Treasurys at $8.7 billion, followed by commodities at $3.5 billion.

This places RWAs as the fifth-largest asset category in decentralized finance by total value locked, according to DefiLlama, overtaking decentralized exchanges (DEXs).

“At the start of this year, they weren’t even in the top 10 categories,” DeFiLlama noted.

A number of tokenized fund products like the BlackRock USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund (BUIDL), Circle’s USYC, Franklin Templeton’s BENJI and Ondo’s OUSG are driving increased valuation with tokenized Treasurys.

Vincent Liu, chief investment officer of Kronos Research, previously told Cointelegraph that for further growth in RWAs, “the constraint is no longer tokenization itself, but liquidity and integration into TradFi.”

Magazine: Big questions: Would Bitcoin survive a 10-year power outage?

Artificial intelligence is no longer just a research tool for investors. It’s increasingly being used as a market oracle, used to model scenarios, price ranges and sector-level shifts across global asset classes. 

In 2025, AI adoption accelerated across crypto markets and asset management companies, with funds and analysts using large language models to interpret macro signals, onchain data and regulatory developments. 

To test how these systems interpret the upcoming year, Cointelegraph asked leading AI models what crypto prices could look like in 2026. 

Together, the responses pointed toward a maturing market shaped by institutional capital, infrastructure growth and sharper regulations. 

Methodology

Query time frame

AI model queries were conducted Dec. 15-16, 2025.

Price references: All price ranges are expressed relative to spot crypto market prices observed during the query window of Dec. 15–16, 2025.

Models queried

OpenAI’s ChatGPT, Google’s Gemini, Microsoft Copilot and xAI’s Grok

Each model was queried independently to avoid cross-contamination of responses.

Prompt structure

Asset-level outlook

Predicted price ranges for major cryptocurrencies in 2026

Key bullish and bearish catalysts

Models were asked to provide base-case price ranges rather than best-case or worst-case scenarios, anchored to market conditions at the time of the queries.

Exact prompt used: 

You are an analytical forecasting model tasked with outlining possible crypto market scenarios for 2026.

For each of the following cryptocurrencies:

Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), BNB, XRP, Solana (SOL), Tron (TRX), Dogecoin (DOGE), and Cardano (ADA)

Please provide the following for calendar year 2026:

1. Estimated price range

Use a range, not a single price point

Base your estimate on historical cycles, adoption trends, macroeconomic conditions, regulatory developments and onchain fundamentals

2. Key bullish catalysts

Institutional adoption, regulatory clarity, ecosystem growth, technological upgrades or macro tailwinds

Limit to 2 concise bullet points

3. Key bearish risks or constraints

Regulatory headwinds, macro tightening, competition, technical risks or demand saturation

Limit to 2 concise bullet points

Editorial handling

To ensure readability and consistency, Cointelegraph used a single standardized prompt across all AI models. AI responses were edited for clarity and length, with overlapping themes summarized and repetitive language removed, while preserving reasoning and intent.

Limitations and bias considerations

While AI models can show useful patterns, they come with clear limitations. To reduce hallucinations, Cointelegraph asked models to provide price ranges rather than point forecasts, required each model to outline both bullish and bearish catalysts and avoided prompts that depended on non-public information. This approach was intended to encourage scenario analysis over certainty.

Most models rely on training data with fixed cutoffs and do not have access to real-time market conditions, private deals and unpublished regulatory developments. As a result, predictions do not consider sudden policy shifts, black swan events or sentiment reversals. 

AI systems also tend to anchor to dominant market narratives. This means that predictions may cluster around consensus views rather than contrarian or extreme outcomes. The outputs also reflect probabilistic reasoning and not foresight. The predictions presented illustrate how large language models interpret trends, not what will definitively happen in 2026.

Price Predictions by AI 

Bitcoin (BTC)

Year-to-date price chart for Bitcoin. Source: CoinGecko

ChatGPT: $85,000–$180,000

Gemini: $100,000–$220,000

Grok: $100,000–$250,000

Copilot: $85,000–$135,000

Key bullish catalysts

Gemini, ChatGPT and Copilot broadly agree that sustained institutional inflows, driven by spot BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs), corporate treasuries and broader balance-sheet adoption, are anchoring BTC’s role as a macro asset. 

Gemini and Grok pointed to a more accommodating global macro backdrop in 2026, where easing monetary policy, post-halving supply constraints and potential sovereign accumulation could reinforce the “digital gold” narrative. 

Key bearish risks

ChatGPT, Gemini and Copilot warned that a reversal in global monetary conditions, whether due to sticky inflation or renewed economic shocks, could suppress liquidity and reduce demand for risk and alternative assets, including Bitcoin. 

Gemini and Grok said regulatory pressure remains another shared concern, particularly around custody concentration, ETF structures, taxation and capital controls, which could weigh on institutional confidence if scrutiny intensifies.

Ether (ETH) 

Year-to-date price chart for Ether. Source: CoinGecko

ChatGPT: $3,000–$9,000

Gemini: $7,000–$18,000

Grok: $4,000–$12,000

Copilot: $8,200–$10,200

Key bullish catalysts

Gemini, ChatGPT and Grok all pointed to Ethereum’s layer-2 ecosystem maturing as a core driver, arguing that rollups and post-Dencun scaling could materially improve throughput and fee efficiency while preserving decentralization.

Copilot and ChatGPT additionally highlight Ethereum’s growing role as a settlement layer for tokenized assets, stablecoins and institutional decentralized finance (DeFi) as a structural source of demand.

Key bearish risks

Gemini and ChatGPT flagged fragmentation across multiple layer-2 networks as a risk, potentially diluting liquidity and weakening ETH’s value-capture narrative. 

Copilot and Grok said regulatory uncertainty around staking, DeFi and ETH’s classification in key jurisdictions could also limit institutional participation if clarity stalls.

BNB (BNB)

Year-to-date price chart for BNB. Source: CoinGecko

ChatGPT: $350–$900

Gemini: $550–$1,200

Grok: $700–$1,500

Copilot: $850–$1,200

Key bullish catalysts

Gemini, ChatGPT and Grok largely connected BNB’s upside to the regulatory stabilization of the crypto exchange Binance and the continued dominance of its exchange-linked ecosystem across trading, payments and DeFi. 

Copilot and ChatGPT said growth in BNB Chain activity, particularly in gaming and retail-focused applications, is viewed as another potential driver of sustained demand and utility for the token.

Key bearish risks

All four models see BNB as highly exposed to Binance-specific regulatory actions, with enforcement or restrictions posing direct downside risk to token demand. 

Gemini and ChatGPT raised concerns that centralization may also constrain broader institutional adoption compared to more decentralized networks.

XRP (XRP)

Year-to-date price chart for XRP. Source: CoinGecko

ChatGPT: $0.80–$3.00

Gemini: $1.00–$3.00

Grok: $1.50–$6.00

Copilot: $1.80–$3.20

Key bullish catalysts

Gemini, Copilot and Grok converged on the view that expanded adoption of Ripple-linked payment rails by banks, payment providers or public institutions could materially strengthen XRP’s utility case. 

ChatGPT and Gemini said full regulatory clarity in the United States is a key enabler for renewed institutional confidence and partnerships.

Key bearish risks

ChatGPT, Copilot and Gemini caution that XRP faces structural competition from stablecoins, central bank digital currencies and tokenized fiat solutions that may offer simpler cross-border settlement. 

Grok and ChatGPT noted that slower-than-expected real-world adoption beyond pilot programs could also limit upside despite legal progress.

Solana (SOL)

Year-to-date price chart for Solana. Source: CoinGecko

ChatGPT: $120–$350

Gemini: $300–$800

Grok: $200–$600

Copilot: $150–$300

Key bullish catalysts:

Gemini, ChatGPT and Grok highlighted Solana’s high throughput and low-cost architecture as a competitive advantage for consumer-facing applications such as payments, gaming and social platforms. 

Copilot and Gemini said continued developer activity, venture funding and institutional experimentation could reinforce ecosystem momentum into 2026.

Key bearish risks

All four models cite recurring concerns around network reliability, and past outages remain a key downside risk, particularly during periods of peak demand. 

Gemini and ChatGPT also warned that improvements in Ethereum’s layer-2 ecosystem could narrow Solana’s performance edge and intensify competition for developers and liquidity.

Tron (TRX)

Year-to-date price chart for Tron. Source: CoinGecko

ChatGPT: $0.12–$0.30

Gemini: $0.20–$0.50

Grok: $0.20–$0.50

Copilot: $0.25–$0.55

Key bullish catalysts

Gemini, ChatGPT and Grok agree that Tron’s dominant role as a settlement layer for stablecoin transfers, especially USDt (USDT) in Asia and emerging markets, provides a durable source of onchain demand. 

Gemini and Copilot also point to potential upside from expanded real-world asset or regulated stablecoin integrations.

Key bearish risks

ChatGPT and Gemini said regulatory pressure on stablecoins or heightened scrutiny of Tron’s governance structure could pose systemic risks to its core use case. 

Grok and Copilot flagged limited developer activity and innovation outside payments may also cap upside relative to more diversified ecosystems.

Dogecoin (DOGE)

Year-to-date price chart for Dogecoin. Source: CoinGecko

ChatGPT: $0.07–$0.40

Gemini: $0.30–$0.80

Grok: $0.20–$0.80

Copilot: $0.12–$0.25

Key bullish catalysts

ChatGPT, Copilot and Grok framed DOGE’s upside around renewed retail-driven momentum, amplified by social media cycles, cultural relevance and potential integration into consumer payment or tipping platforms. 

Gemini said high visibility and brand recognition continue to differentiate DOGE from newer memecoins.

Key bearish risks

All four models flagged DOGE’s inflationary supply and lack of sustained utility as structural constraints on long-term appreciation. 

ChatGPT and Grok said competition from newer, more speculative memecoins could further dilute attention and capital during future market cycles.

Cardano (ADA) 

Year-to-date price chart for Cardano. Source: CoinGecko

ChatGPT: $0.40–$1.80

Gemini: $1.50–$4.00

Grok: $0.60–$2.50

Copilot: $0.50–$1.20

Key bullish catalysts

Gemini, Grok and Copilot pointed to the rollout of decentralized governance under the Voltaire era and continued progress on scaling solutions as potential credibility boosts for the network. 

ChatGPT and Gemini pointed to adoption in public-sector, education or identity-focused use cases as a possible long-term differentiator.

Key bearish risks

ChatGPT, Grok and Copilot warned that slow development timelines and a methodical, research-heavy approach could be risks in a fast-moving competitive landscape. 

Gemini and ChatGPT also said a persistent gap between Cardano’s market capitalization and relatively low onchain activity or TVL could continue to raise questions about real economic usage.

Magazine: Apple developing pocket AI, deep fake music deal, hypnotizing GPT-4

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.

Galvenie secinājumi:

ETH joprojām ir ierobežots zem $3,000, jo atkārtoti pārtraukumi vājina tirgotāju uzticību un nomāc īstermiņa impulso.

Ilgtspējīga ETH rallija sasniegšanai būs nepieciešama spēcīgāka tīkla aktivitāte un DApp pieprasījums, lai kompensētu vāju sviru un ETF plūsmu.

Ether (ETH) ir tirgots šaurā 4% diapazonā pēdējā nedēļā, liekot tirgotājiem jautāt, vai $2,900 atbalsta līmenis noturēsies. Atkārtoti nesekmīgi centieni pārkāpt $3,000 ir sakrituši ar Ethereum tīkla maksu samazināšanos un vāju pieprasījumu pēc Ether biržā tirgotajiem fondiem (ETF).

Kriptovalūtu birža Bybit cieta 1,4 miljardu dolāru uzbrukumu 2025. gada februārī, kas atklāja strukturālas vājības glabāšanas sistēmās, kas jau sen tika uzskatītas par nozares standartiem, piemēram, auksto krātuvi un multisignatūras makiem.

Tajā laikā šis uzbrukums bija vislielākais zināmais hakerisms kripto vēsturē, lai gan šo atzinību vēlāk pārspēja atklājumi, ka Ķīnas ieguves baseins LuBian zaudēja 3,5 miljardus dolāru 2020. gadā.

“[Bybit] uzbrukums parādīja, ka aukstās glabāšanas un multisig etiķetes ir bezjēdzīgas, ja apstiprināšanas plūsmu, darījumu redzamību vai parakstītāja vidi var manipulēt,” teica Išai Šohams, produktu vadītājs kripto infrastruktūras uzņēmumā Utila. “Pēc Bybit, glabāšanas arhitektūra kļuva par pirmās kārtas risku tēmu, nevis par aizmugures biroja detaļu.”

Key takeaways:

Bitcoin is consolidating as gold leads, a pattern seen before past BTC rallies.

$84,000–$85,000 and the 100-week EMA are key levels to watch.

Bitcoin (BTC) failed to rise above the $90,000 mark in December, with sharp rejections toward the $85,000-87,000 area on each attempt.

BTC/USD hourly chart. Source: TradingView

The sideways price action followed a sharp pullback of more than 30% from Bitcoin’s October all-time high above the $126,000 mark.

Bitcoin’s consolidation resembled pauses seen in previous four-year cycle downtrends, when its price often moved sideways for extended periods before establishing a clearer trend, according to multiple analysts.

With 2026 approaching, is this boring BTC range about to give way to a major breakout or a deeper correction?

Gold, silver charts: Lagging BTC price correlation

Bitcoin’s 30% pullback and sideways trading are consistent with past liquidity cycles, according to data highlighted by analyst Bull Theory.

In a Monday note, the analyst said gold (XAU) and silver (XAG) tend to move first after major market stress, while Bitcoin lags.

For instance, the precious metals rallied during the May-August 2020 period, but Bitcoin traded inside the $9,000-12,000 range in the same period.

BTC/USD, TOTAL crypto market cap, XAU/USD and XAG/USD weekly chart. Source: TradingView/Bull Theory

“Gold and silver peaked in August 2020, and money started rotating into risk assets,” Bull Theory wrote, adding:

“This is when Bitcoin started moving. From August 2020 to May 2021: Bitcoin went from $12,000 to $64,800 (nearly 5.5x). Total crypto market cap went up almost 8x by mid-2021.”

A similar pattern was visible as of December 2025.

Gold and silver reached their respective all-time highs, while Bitcoin consolidated, hinting that the top cryptocurrency may benefit from delayed risk rotation just like it did after August 2020.

“That is why the current sideways action in BTC is not the start of the bear market, but rather a calm before the storm,” Bull Market added.

Bitcoin cost basis

The next chart to watch in 2026 is Bitcoin’s Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) heatmap, which shows where large portions of BTC supply were accumulated across different price levels.

In simple terms, it helps identify where most holders bought their coins and where buying or selling pressure is likely to emerge.

As of December, the heatmap highlighted a dense supply cluster of more than 940,000 BTC around the $84,000–$85,000 range, the largest concentration recorded since 2020.

BTC cost basis distribution heatmap. Source: Glassnode

In the past, such supply zones appeared ahead of strong Bitcoin uptrends.

For example, in early 2023, heavy buying activity around $16,000 created a strong base. Over the following year, Bitcoin climbed steadily from that zone to above $38,000.

BTC cost basis distribution heatmap. Source: Glassnode

In 2025, Bitcoin dropped to the $75,000-76,000 range despite strong accumulation inside the $96,000-98,000 zone earlier.

BTC later recovered back into that high-accumulation zone, showing that buyers were willing to step in again rather than abandon their positions.

Bitcoin hash rate chart

Bitcoin mining has come under pressure as rising energy costs squeeze margins, forcing some miners to rely on debt or equity-linked financing to stay liquid.

Against this backdrop, the Bitcoin network’s hash rate has slipped after peaking in late October, raising concerns about miner stress.

Estimated Bitcoin hash rate, petahashes/second. Source: Coinmetrics.io

Analysts at VanEck view the trend differently.

In a recent note, crypto research head Matt Sigel said miner capitulation has historically acted as a “bullish contrarian signal,” with Bitcoin posting positive 90-day returns roughly 65% of the time following sustained hash rate declines.

Bitcoin’s price rose 77% of the time over the following 180 days, with an average gain of about 72% after sustained hash rate declines. This fractal makes BTC’s hash rate a key chart to watch in 2026.

Bitcoin’s weekly trendline support

Bitcoin’s weekly chart highlights why the boring range matters heading into 2026.

As of December, BTC consolidated sideways while holding above its 100-week exponential moving average (100-week EMA; the purple wave) support.

BTC/USD weekly chart. Source: TradingView

As long as price holds near this zone, the broader uptrend structure remains intact, even if momentum stays muted. In that case, BTC could rebound toward its 50-week EMA (the red wave) at around the $97,000-98,000 zone.

However, a sustained break below the 100-week EMA would raise risks of deeper pullbacks toward the 200-week EMA (the blue wave) at around the $67,500-66,000 area.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.

Skatoties uz 2026. gadu, Bitcoin (BTC) prognozes nonāk pretrunā ar vēsturiskajiem diagrammu modeļiem un mainīgajām tirgus realitātēm, jo tradicionālā finanses spēlē arvien lielāku lomu kriptovalūtu jomā.

Galvenie secinājumi:

Standard Chartered un Bernstein prognozē, ka Bitcoin sasniegs 150 000 $ 2026. gadā, samazinot iepriekšējos augstākos mērķus lēnāku ETF plūsmu dēļ.

Grayscale prognozē jaunu BTC visu laiku augstāko rādītāju 2026. gada 1. pusē, ko virza institucionālā pieņemšana, beidzot tradicionālo četru gadu ciklu.

Tehniskie rādītāji norāda uz potenciāli dziļu kritumu līdz 40 000 $ - 70 000 $, ja vēsturiskie modeļi atkārtojas.

Perpetuālie decentralizētie biržas noslēdz 2025. gadu ar kumulatīvo tirdzniecības apjomu, kas sasniedz aptuveni 12,09 triljonus ASV dolāru, kas ir pieaugums no aptuveni 4,1 triljona ASV dolāru gada sākumā.

DefiLlama dati parāda, ka apmēram 7,9 triljoni ASV dolāru no šī mūža kopējā apjoma tika radīti tikai 2025. gadā. Tas nozīmē, ka 65% no visām perp DEX tirdzniecības apjomiem notika vienā kalendārajā gadā. Šī koncentrācija uzsver, cik ātri onchain atvasinājumi paplašinājās 2025. gadā.

Tikai decembrī perp tirdzniecības apjoms sasniedza 1 triljonu ASV dolāru, nesot līdzi momentum, kas sākās oktobrī, kad mēneša apjomi pirmo reizi sasniedza 1 triljonu ASV dolāru.

Lighter, decentralizēta birža (DEX), kas piedāvā mūžīgas nākotnes tirdzniecību, šonedēļ veica vienu no lielākajiem tokenu dāvinājumiem kriptovalūtu vēsturē, pat ja kritiķi turpināja apšaubīt, kā projekts sadalīja savu tokenu piedāvājumu.

Lighter airdropped a total of $675 million worth of Lighter Infrastructure Tokens (LIT) to early participants on Tuesday, according to blockchain data visualization platform Bubblemaps. “$675M airdropped to early participants. $30M withdrawn from Lighter (only),” wrote Bubblemaps in a Tuesday X post.

ASV spot Bitcoin biržas tirgotie fondi (ETF) ir pārtraukuši septiņu dienu neto izplūdes gaitu, piesaistot 355 miljonus dolāru kapitāla, jo tirgotāji norādīja uz agrīniem uzlabojumiem globālajā likviditātē.

BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) vadīja atgūšanos ar 143.75 miljoniem dolāru ieplūdēm otrdien, kam sekoja Ark 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) ar 109.56 miljoniem dolāru un Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) ar 78.59 miljoniem dolāru, saskaņā ar SoSoValue datiem. Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) pievienoja 13.87 miljonus dolāru, bet mazākas ieplūdes tika reģistrētas Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF (GBTC) ar 4.28 miljoniem dolāru un VanEck Bitcoin ETF (HODL) ar 4.98 miljoniem dolāru.

The non-fungible token (NFT) market expanded in total supply, but saw significantly lower sales in 2025 compared to the previous years. 

CryptoSlam data shows that the total number of NFTs in circulation climbed to more than 1.34 billion this year, marking a 25% increase from the one billion supply in 2024. The increasing supply happened in parallel with falling NFT sales. 

According to CryptoSlam data, NFT sales reached about $5.63 billion in 2025, down by about 37% from the $8.9 billion recorded last year. Average sale prices also declined year-on-year, slipping to $96 from $124. 

The divergence highlights a market where supply growth outpaced demand. While creators continued minting new NFT pieces and platforms lowered entry barriers, buyer participation and spending failed to keep up, stretching liquidity across a much larger number of assets.

NFT sales, buyers, and sellers chart. Source: CryptoSlam

NFT supply expanded from 38 million to 1.3 billion in four years

The total number of NFTs minted and entered circulation grew steadily each year as minting tools became cheaper and easier to use across major blockchains. 

CryptoSlam data shows that supply rose from 38 million NFTs in 2021 to over 106 million in 2022, before accelerating sharply in the following years as creators scaled up production. By 2023, total NFT supply had already surpassed 550 million tokens before almost doubling in 2024 to one billion. 

At the time of writing, NFT supply stood at 1.34 billion tokens, representing a 35-fold increase, or about 3,400% growth, over the past four years.

While supply expanded quickly, the market’s ability to absorb new NFTs weakened. Total NFT sales peaked in 2022 and trended lower since. 

NFT sales volume from 2021 to 2025. Source: CryptoSlam

Pricing data reinforced the shift. Average NFT sale value dropped below $100 in 2025, down from $124 in 2024. It's also far below the over $400 averages seen during the 2021 and 2022 boom. 

The combination of rising supply, lower total sales, and shrinking ticket sizes suggests that NFTs are increasingly becoming a high-volume, low-price market, where competition for buyer attention will be more intense. 

Related: NFTs shifted to utility and culture as price faded in 2025

NFT market capitalization continued to compress after its 2022 peak

The NFT sector’s total capitalization has steadily declined since reaching a peak of about $17 billion in April 2022, reflecting the unwinding of speculative excess from the previous cycle.

Total NFT market cap chart. Source: CoinGecko

After a partial recovery to roughly $10.8 billion in December 2024 and holding to about $9.2 billion in January 2025, market capitalization slid further throughout this year, closing 2025 at around $2.4 billion. 

The downward trend highlights how lower prices and thinner liquidity persisted as overall NFT supply continues to expand. 

Magazine: Pranksy: Inside the anonymous life of an NFT legend — NFT Collector

Crypto fund manager Bitwise has filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to launch 11 new single‑token “strategy” crypto exchange‑traded funds (ETFs), extending the company’s crypto ETF footprint deeper into the altcoin market.

The proposed funds would offer targeted exposure to assets including Aave (AAVE), Uniswap (UNI), Zcash (ZEC), Bittensor (TAO), Sui (SUI), and Near (NEAR), among others, giving investors a regulated route into tokens that so far have mostly traded on crypto exchanges.

According to the filing, each product is designed as a “Strategy ETF” rather than a plain spot vehicle, following a rules‑based playbook for how it gets exposure to the underlying asset.

In broad terms, the funds would combine direct spot holdings in the relevant cryptocurrency with positions in exchange-traded products (ETPs) that also reference that asset, and could use derivatives to fine‑tune exposure.

As per the filing, the fund will derive its exposure “by investing up to 60% of its assets directly” in the token and “at least 40% of its assets” in securities issued by one or more exchange-traded products that invest directly in or provide exposure to the token.

Bitwise Crypto ETF Filings | Source: SEC

That makes these ETFs structurally different from Bitwise’s existing offerings, which are mostly diversified baskets of crypto equities (such as Coinbase), multi‑asset indexes, or futures‑based strategies.

Bitwise’s crypto offerings

Bitwise already runs a reasonably full US lineup. Its spot products include the Bitwise Bitcoin ETF, the Bitwise Ethereum ETF, the Bitwise Solana Staking ETF, and the Bitwise XRP ETF, which hold their respective assets directly.

On the equity and index side, Bitwise offers the Bitwise Crypto Industry Innovators ETF, which holds listed crypto‑related companies, and the Bitwise 10 Crypto Index ETF, which tracks a screened basket of the largest digital assets. The firm also operates futures‑based strategies built around CME futures.

The new single‑token strategy funds would sit alongside the existing shelf, but target a different type of risk. Instead of diversified baskets, each ETF concentrates on one coin and applies the same rules‑based framework across a family of altcoins spanning decentralized finance, artificial intelligence, and layer‑1 ecosystems.

If approved, they would give institutions and advisers an ETF‑native way to express views on names like TAO or SUI without directly holding the tokens.

A broader wave of crypto ETF/ETP filings

The move comes amid a broader wave of ETF and ETP activity, including Grayscale’s Dec. 30 application to convert its Bittensor trust into a spot ETF on NYSE Arca.

Over the past several months, issuers such as Bitwise, VanEck, and 21Shares have also been rolling out or seeking approval for spot and thematic products tied to altcoins like Solana (SOL), XRP (XRP), Dogecoin (DOGE), and Avalanche (AVAX).

While other issuers are edging into single‑altcoin territory, launching or filing for one‑off spot products tied to individual tokens or AI or DeFi‑themed vehicles, Bitwise’s bid is more ambitious in scope: an 11‑fund suite built around a common strategy template to give US investors access to a long tail of altcoins through ETFs.​