šØTHIS IS WHEN CRYPTO MARKET WILL BOTTOM
Right now most people think Bitcoin already bottomed at $60K.
And they are wrong.
That was likely just a local bottom, not the final cycle low.
Letās break down what actually needs to happen before the real bottom forms.
LIQUIDITY: THE BIGGEST DRIVER
Every major crypto bottom in history has happened when U.S. liquidity starts expanding again. Right now the opposite is happening.
YoY liquidity growth in the U.S. is still negative. That means money is being drained out of the system, not added.
When liquidity is falling:
Crypto sells off first.
Stocks sell off too.
Risk assets stay weak.
We are seeing exactly that right now.
The liquidity being provided by the Fed is simply not enough compared to what markets need to turn bullish again.
This is also why:
- Corporate bankruptcies are rising.
- Consumers are defaulting on debt.
- Economic stress is building.
Until liquidity turns positive, a full market bottom is very unlikely.
MAYER MULTIPLE: NOT AT BOTTOM LEVELS YET
The Mayer Multiple shows whether Bitcoin is overbought or oversold compared to its long-term average. At previous cycle bottoms, this metric dropped below 0.6 every time. Right now it is around 0.67.
That means: the market is oversoldā¦ but not at historical bottom extremes. So again, more like a temporary bottom, not the final one.
LONG TERM HOLDER REALIZED PRICE
This is one of the most reliable bottom indicators. It shows the average price where long term holders bought their Bitcoin.
Historically, Bitcoin cycle bottoms form very close to this level. Right now this sits around $41K, and BTC is nowhere near it.
That gives us a very important clue:
The real bottom zone is likely somewhere near a long term holder cost basis.
MINING ELECTRICAL COST
Mining cost acts like a bear market floor. Currently, electrical production cost is around $57.5K.
But during bear phases, this cost usually drops 15ā20%.
If that happens again:
Electrical cost falls to roughly $45Kā$46K.
