onchainanalysis

Analīzes datums: 17/02/2026 ~12:42 EET
Pārbaude veikta pēc autora 20 punktu MODELA PRIEKŠPAMP (4 novērtēšanas bloki).
Minimālais signālam: 15/20 + pilna Bloka 1 iziešana.
Pašreizējā brīdī — neviena monēta caur filtru neiziet.
Analīze pa blokiem.
1️⃣ Visuma filtrs: kandidātu gandrīz nav
Kritēriji:
Binance Spot

$BTC 7 dienu slīdošā vidējā reālizētā peļņas/zaudējumu attiecība ir strauji kritusies zem 1, uzsverot, ka reālizētie zaudējumi tagad dominē ķēdes plūsmās. Vēsturiski, ilga pārkāpšana zem šī sliekšņa ir bijusi saistīta ar emocionālas kapitulācijas periodiem, nevis strukturāliem ciklu augšgaldiem. Cenu saspiešana tuvu vietējai atbalsta līnijai, apvienojumā ar paātrinātiem reālizētajiem zaudējumiem, liecina, ka pārdošanas spiediens ir uzvedības, nevis strukturāls. Iepriekšējos ciklos — 2019., 2020. un 2022. gadā — šie raksti iezīmēja vēlu panikas notikumus, kuros vājākas rokas tika spiests pārdot, kamēr ilgtermiņa turētāji uzkrāja piedāvājumu, sagatavojot ainu nākotnes atkopšanai.

$BTC is sitting nearly 50% below its October peak.
Fear & Greed just printed 8.
Analysts are throwing out $10K targets.
And yet… retail isn’t gone.
This isn’t just volatility.
This is a cycle stress test.
Let me break down what I’m actually seeing beneath the noise.
The First Thing That Stood Out
While mainstream headlines scream “crypto winter,” something quieter is happening:
Retail flows on exchanges like Coinbase show dip buying.
Spot balances in $BTC and $ETH haven’t collapsed the way they typically do during full-blown capitulation phases.
Now pause there.
In real bear market bottoms (2018, late 2022), retail disappears.
They don’t “buy the dip.”
They uninstall the app.
That hasn’t happened yet.
That doesn’t mean bullish.
But it tells me conviction hasn’t fully broken — and late-cycle corrections often require that final psychological snap.
The $10K Bitcoin Narrative
Bloomberg strategist Mike McGlone recently floated the idea of Bitcoin reverting toward $10,000 if equities roll over.
The macro thesis is straightforward:
US equities stretched on valuation
Volatility compressed
Gold and silver gaining relative strength
Liquidity conditions tightening
If the S&P 500 were to retrace sharply, Bitcoin — still behaving as a high-beta liquidity asset — could mirror that downside.
Is $10K insane?
No.
Is it guaranteed?
Also no.
Bitcoin doesn’t move on doom projections.
It moves on positioning, leverage, and exhaustion.
The Indicator I Care About More Than Headlines
NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) for long-term holders is sitting around ~0.36.
Translation:
Long-term holders are still comfortably in profit.
Historically, true macro bottoms form when:
Long-term holder NUPL turns negative
Strong hands go underwater
Seller exhaustion completes
We are not there yet.
And that’s important.
Cycle lows tend to form when even the most convicted wallets feel pain.
MVRV Just Entered Accumulation
According to on-chain data providers like CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio has re-entered the historical accumulation zone.
The last time this happened in size? Mid-2022.
And what followed wasn’t an instant rally.
It was another leg down before the real base formed.
Low MVRV = undervaluation.
But undervaluation ≠ immediate reversal.
Sometimes it just means you’re early.
I’ve learned that lesson personally.
40%+ of Supply Underwater
Roughly 43% of circulating supply is currently at a loss.
That matters more than short-term price action.
When nearly half the network is underwater:
Weak hands feel pressure
Forced sellers emerge
Strong hands begin absorbing
But here’s the nuance:
Extreme fear can persist longer than most traders can remain solvent or emotionally stable.
That’s where most accounts get chopped.
What This Actually Feels Like
This doesn’t feel like 2019.
Psychologically, it resembles mid-2022:
Retail still somewhat engaged
Long-term holders still profitable
Macro tightening but not broken
Narratives shifting from hype to fundamentals
Valuations being repriced
That tells me we’re likely in a compression phase, not necessarily the final flush.
What I’m Watching Now
I don’t care about dramatic price targets.
I care about:
Are long-term holders distributing or accumulating?
Is exchange supply declining?
Is leverage getting flushed from the system?
Are funding rates resetting structurally?
Are miners holding or selling into weakness?
On-chain absorption shows up before headlines flip.
That’s where edge lives.
My Positioning (Bias, Not Advice)
I’m not aggressive yet.
I’m:
Selective
Patient
Watching for emotional exhaustion
Looking for structural deleveraging
If NUPL turns negative…
If long-term holders go underwater…
If retail sentiment truly breaks…
That’s when asymmetric opportunity historically appears.
What Most Traders Are Missing
Everyone is debating:
“Is $10K coming?”
“Is the bull market over?”
The better question is:
Are strong hands absorbing supply quietly?
Markets don’t bottom when fear appears.
They bottom when fear exhausts.
We’re close.
But we’re not fully broken yet.
And in every cycle I’ve studied, the final flush always feels unnecessary — almost unfair.
That’s usually the opportunity.
If this breakdown helped you see beyond the headlines, follow for more cycle-based analysis.
I don’t trade narratives.
I track positioning.
#BTC #Bitcoin #CryptoCycle #OnChainAnalysis #Marketstructure

Bitcoin tikko pieskārās savām ieguves izmaksām.
Tā līnija zem cenas? Tā nav dekorācija. Tā ir ekonomiskā grīda.
Ieguvēji tērē reālu naudu; enerģija, aparatūra, parādi.
Ja $BTC tirgojas zem ražošanas izmaksām ilgi, vājāki ieguvēji bankrotē.
Hashrate samazinās.
Grūtības pielāgojas.
Pārdošanas spiediens sarūk.

Sistēma pašregulējas.
Skatoties atpakaļ, redzi to pašu tendenci:
2018 → sasniedza minimumu netālu no ieguves izmaksām.
2020 → ļauns zem, atgriezās.
2022 → atkal to atzīmēja.
Tagad? Mēs esam atpakaļ zonā.
Tas nav nejauši. Tas ir Bitcoin stimulu dzinējs.

Kā sekot "Smart Money" makiem

Vai esi kādreiz domājis, vai pastāv slepens ceļš, kā redzēt, ko visveiksmīgākie tirgotāji pērk pirms tas kļūst par virsrakstiem? Tas šķiet kā iekšējā informācija, bet tas ir pilnīgi publiski!

Iedomājies, ka tu mēģini izvēlēties uzvarētāju akciju, bet, nevis minot, tu vari ieskatīties visveiksmīgāko investoru portfelī.

Tas būtībā ir tas, ko 'Smart Money' maki nozīmē kriptovalūtā - publiskās adreses, kas pieder entītijām ar konsekventu peļņas tirdzniecības vēsturi.