#NEW Chances of another US government shutdown soar to 74% – as Washington teeters on the brink again
The chance of another government shutdown this week has jumped to 74%, according to data from prediction markets. This is not a poll or political commentary, but real-money risk pricing, in an environment where investors and traders are trying to read whether Congress will once again manage to avoid an institutional clash at the last minute.
The scenario is familiar, but this time more marginal. The temporary agreement passed in early February kept almost the entire federal government open, but left one crucial part out: the Department of Homeland Security. DHS funding expires on February 13, and without a new agreement, the department automatically goes into shutdown mode.
Why DHS is the focus
DHS is not a typical department. Under its umbrella are agencies that directly touch on security, borders, and transportation, from the TSA to ICE and the Coast Guard. This means that even a partial shutdown, limited to DHS alone, is enough to create serious political and economic tension.
The conflict in Congress is not just about the budget numbers. Democrats are pushing for stricter oversight and restrictions on ICE practices, while Republicans reject the changes, arguing that they alter the agency’s role and instrumentalize funding. The result is a political deadlock, with the deadline dangerously approaching.
What the markets “see” and why the odds are rising
74% did not appear by chance. In prediction markets, participants do not bet on what they wish would happen, but on what they consider most likely based on the data. The fact that the latest funding package passed by a narrow majority in the House shows how fragile any deal is.
Markets are pricing in three things: the tight timeframe, the hardline policy, and Washington’s history of going to extremes. When these combine, a shutdown stops being an “extreme scenario” and becomes a basic possibility.