As stated by top analyst from Grayscale, Blackrock etc, 2026 looks less like a casino and more like an investor’s market. And wins will come not by chasing every hot trade, but by sizing positions thoughtfully and focusing on high-probability outcomes.
Hence the use of the word "assymetrical bet". It simply means a scenario where the potential for profit (the "upside") significantly outweighs the potential for loss (the "downside").
The latest price dump in
$BTC seemed to have discourage a lot of retail investors, therefore I feel inspired to put together this piece for many who will likely be shaken out of their position by fear.
The recent Bitcoin price weakness unlike the drawdown in October 2025, seemed to stem from U.S.-based sellers.
Since the start of 2026, but especially around the recent market lows, the price of Bitcoin on Coinbase (the largest U.S. exchange by volume) traded significantly below the price of Bitcoin on Binance (the largest offshore exchange by volume), a possible indication that U.S.-based sellers were in the drivers’ seat. The U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded products (ETPs) also saw an additional ~$318 million of net outflows since the start of February. Notably, there did not seem to be new liquidations from Bitcoin “OG Whales,” based on on-chain indicators.
Truth is while some are already shaken out of their position, a lot of buying us also been done by those who can see the astronomical potential that Bitcoin has. Institutions, Whales, OGs are yet buying. Here's why;
Investing in Bitcoin is a bet on growth in its adoption as a digital currency; it has not yet achieved the same status as gold.
Bitcoin both a store of value like gold $XAU and a growth asset like tech stocks. If Bitcoin succeeds as a monetary asset in the longer term, its price may eventually behave more like gold (e.g., in terms of volatility and correlation to stocks).
Gold Versus Bitcoin
Bitcoin is a digital currency and digital payments system with attributes akin to monetary gold, including supply scarcity and autonomy from nation states. It has demonstrated remarkable resilience across boom/bust cycles, against potential attackers, and in the face of many competitors.
Bitcoin is open-source, highly decentralized, and supported by a network of physical infrastructure that has achieved enormous scale. Because of these features, Grayscale believes Bitcoin can be considered a long-term store of value: the network will likely continue operating well beyond our lifetimes and the asset may retain its value in real terms (i.e., accounting or inflation) in a wide range of outcomes for the economy and society. In this sense it can be analogized to “digital gold.”
But in comparison to Gold, Bitcoin is still growing up. Gold has been used as money for thousands of years and was the basis of the international monetary system until the early 1970s. Today it is the second-largest asset held in official foreign exchange reserves after the U.S. Dollar (and ahead of the Euro).
Bitcoin is only 17 years old, and the internet itself is only a couple decades old.
Bitcoin has not yet achieved the same status as gold as a monetary asset, and that is central to the investment thesis.
Therefore, In the economy of the future featuring AI agents, humanoid robots, and tokenized capital markets, it is only natural for the dominant store of value monetary asset to be a digital, blockchain-based commodity like Bitcoin rather than a physical commodity like gold or silver.
Investing in Bitcoin today means positioning for this potential growth. If Bitcoin succeeds in the longer term, its price return characteristics may eventually look more like gold as the image above compared.
Michael Saylor (MicroStrategy) famously argues that Bitcoin is "Gold 2.0." Gold’s supply is semi-elastic (higher prices lead to more mining), whereas Bitcoin’s supply is mathematically fixed at 21 million. To reach "Gold Parity" (the market cap of all above-ground gold), Bitcoin would need to hit approximately $700,000 to $1,000,000 per coin. This represents a roughly 10x to 15x upside that gold simply cannot match because gold is already the established incumbent.
Tech Stocks Versus Bitcoin
Tech stocks, particularly the "Magnificent Seven" and AI-driven giants, have long been the engine of growth for portfolios. However, tech stocks are productive equities; their value is capped by earnings, margins, and the physical constraints of labor and hardware.
According to Grayscale Research, Bitcoin is currently trading as a hybrid between a growth asset and a store of value. While tech stocks might double in a decade, Bitcoin's asymmetry stems from its transition from a niche speculative tool to a systemic financial layer.
In comparison, If a tech giant like Apple triples, it adds $6 trillion in value which is a monumental feat but if Bitcoin reaches that same valuation, it represents a 4x to 5x return from its current levels. As Cathie Wood (ARK Invest) notes, Bitcoin is "three revolutions in one": a new monetary system, a breakthrough technology, and a new asset class.
Conclusion
In the contest of asymmetry, the winner is determined by the distance between "where we are" and "where we could go."
Global Stocks are like the finished skyscraper, they are reliable but unlikely to grow tenfold.
Gold is like the mountain, imposing and safe, but static.
Bitcoin is therefore the foundation of a new digital city.
Because Bitcoin is the only asset in this group that is currently undergoing global institutionalization while maintaining a fixed supply, it remains the most potent asymmetric bet. It offers the potential for "gold-like" stability in the future, with the "tech-like" growth of a frontier network today. Investing in Bitcoin is therefore a bet that can not lose in the long-term.
#BTC #GOLD #stocks