ecb

Societe Generale economists Anatoli Annenkov, Michel Martinez, Fabien Bossy and Sam Cartwright argue that upside risks to Euro area core inflation justify bringing forward European Central Bank rate hikes. They now expect 25 bp increases in June and September, keeping policy within a neutral range while assessing growth and inflation impacts. Their forecasts show headline and core inflation staying elevated into 2027.

SocGen brings ECB hikes forward

"In our latest set of inflation forecasts, we see headline inflation rising to around 3.5% in May and staying at that level until April next year, before dropping back to around 2.4% for the rest of 2027.

Core inflation could rise from its current level of 2.4% to around 2.8% in March next year, assuming some pass-through via indirect and second-round effects on wages, before fading again below 2.5% by the end of 2027."

"Given these heightened risks to core inflation in 2027-28, it would seem prudent by the ECB to act early and lean against any upward risks."

"We thus expect 25bp hikes at the June and the September meetings, moving the ECB to the upper band of its own views of a neutral policy stance."

"Any signs of a limited impact on growth and financial conditions or a speedy transmission of higher energy prices to other prices and wage growth, possibly along with less targeted fiscal measures to support consumption, would suggest that the ECB might need to tighten policy more."
#ECB

The European Central Bank formally endorsed a proposal on April 9 to shift direct supervision of major crypto exchanges from national regulators to a single Paris-based authority.

Key Takeaways
ECB endorsed proposal to centralize supervision of systemically important crypto firms under ESMA.Thresholds: 1M+ EU yearly active users, €3B+ in assets, or 200K+ cross-border users.Binance, Coinbase, Byb
it EU, and Kraken are primary candidates for direct ESMA oversight.Ireland, Luxembourg, and Malta are opposing.Proposal enters EU legislative negotiation.
What the ECB Endorsed
The European Central Bank describes the proposal as an "ambitious step" toward deeper EU capital market integration, and the substance behind that language is specific. Direct supervisory power over systemically important financial market participants, including large crypto exchanges, would shift from national regulators to the European Securities and Markets Authority in Paris. The proposal builds on the MiCA framework that came into force in 2025, extending regulatory reach from token classification into institutional supervision itself.
The target is regulatory arbitrage. Under the current framework, firms register in whichever EU member state offers the most favorable supervisory environment. Coinbase operates its EU entity from Ireland. Many others have chosen Luxembourg or Malta for the same reason. The ECB's endorsement is a direct challenge to that model.
ESMA supervision would bring stricter standards than most national regulators currently apply, more rigorous assessments of board members' fitness and propriety, mandatory independent compliance functions that cannot be separated from strategic decision-making, and stricter internal risk management requirements. The ECB also requested a non-voting seat on ESMA's board, giving the central bank visibility into crypto market activity it does not currently have.
Who Gets Caught and How
The proposal defines systemic importance through two sets of criteria. Quantitative thresholds are specific: more than one million yearly active EU users, assets exceeding €3 billion, or more than 200,000 yearly active users outside the firm's home member state. Qualitative criteria reach further, firms acting as liquidity or custody hubs for smaller crypto platforms, those deeply integrated with traditional EU banks, and those operating simultaneously as exchange, custodian, and stablecoin issuer all face ESMA oversight regardless of whether they hit the numbers.
That last criterion is broad enough to capture almost any significant cross-border operator at ESMA's discretion. It is also the most legally contestable element of the proposal, vague enough to reach almost anyone, which means vague enough to be challenged in court by any firm that disputes ESMA's assessment.
Three firms illustrate the range of the proposal's reach. Binance clears every quantitative threshold by orders of magnitude, 300 million registered users globally, 39.2% of global spot market share, $170 billion in customer assets. It is not a candidate for ESMA oversight. It is the primary reason the proposal exists. Coinbase presents the clearest regulatory arbitrage case: 108 million verified users globally, EU futures now operating across 26 European countries, and an Irish registration that was chosen specifically for its supervisory environment. The proposal is aimed precisely at that structure. Bitpanda is the most interesting case because it is European-native, 7 million users, a Deutsche Bank partnership, and a 2026 Frankfurt IPO in progress. Deep integration with traditional finance is exactly the qualitative criterion the proposal uses, and Bitpanda meets it without needing the quantitative threshold at all.
Bybit EU, Kraken, Bitvavo, CoinShares, and BlackRock's EU operations meet various combinations of the quantitative and qualitative criteria. Traditional banks, DZ Bank's retail crypto launch and Santander's Openbank service in Germany, are the least obvious candidates but potentially the fastest to cross the user threshold given their existing customer bases.
The firms most likely to be caught are also the most politically connected in national capitals. That connection is part of why the political fight over this proposal is as significant as the proposal itself.
The Political Fight That Determines Everything
The proposal is not law. It enters a negotiation phase between EU member states and the European Parliament expected to take several months. The political geography of the opposition tells you exactly where the money is.
France and Germany strongly support centralization. Both have substantial domestic regulatory capacity and would not lose supervisory influence under ESMA oversight. Ireland is opposing the plan, and Ireland's objection is not abstract. It is the direct economic consequence of potentially losing supervisory authority over the entities that chose Dublin specifically because of its favorable regulatory environment. Luxembourg and Malta have built significant financial sector activity around the same dynamic. All three are being asked to vote against their own economic interests.
The ECB's requirement that ESMA receive adequate staffing and resources before the transition is not just a practical condition, it is the specific mechanism through which opposing member states can slow the transition while appearing to support it in principle. ESMA's current staffing is built for its existing mandate. Taking on direct supervision of the largest crypto exchanges in Europe requires an institution significantly larger than ESMA currently is. That resourcing gap gives any member state a credible argument for delay without formally opposing the proposal.
What the Industry Is Actually Facing
If the proposal passes in its current form, the largest crypto exchanges in Europe face a single significantly tougher supervisor replacing whatever national arrangement they currently navigate. The firms that chose their EU jurisdiction for regulatory reasons will find that the advantage they selected for no longer exists.
The more realistic outcome, given the political structure, is a weakened version. The quantitative thresholds are likely to rise in legislative negotiation, pushed higher by Ireland, Luxembourg, and Malta to reduce the number of firms caught under their national regulators. The qualitative discretion criteria, being the most legally contestable element, are likely to be narrowed. ESMA gets direct supervision authority, but over fewer firms than the current proposal targets and with less discretionary reach than the qualitative criteria currently allow.
That weakened version is still a structural shift. Even a narrowed proposal that catches only Binance and the largest cross-border operators represents a regulatory consolidation the EU has never previously achieved in crypto.
The ECB endorsed the proposal. France and Germany want it. Ireland, Luxembourg, and Malta are fighting it. The firms most likely to be caught are already operating in Europe under the assumption that national regulation stays national. That assumption just got significantly more expensive to maintain.
#ECB

Eiropas Centrālā banka (ECB) ir veicusi vēsturisku soli, kas legalizē digitālo aktīvu nākotni. Sākot no 2026. gada 30. marta, Eiro sistēma oficiāli ir uzsākusi DLT balstītu aktīvu (tokenizētu aktīvu) pieņemšanu kā piemērotu nodrošinājumu kredīta operācijām. Tas nav tikai jaunums; tas ir liels pavērsiens visai Eiropas finanšu ainavai.

🔍 Kāpēc tas maina visu:

• Institūciju leģitimitāte: Pieņemot tokenizētās vērtspapīrus un DLT balstītus aktīvus kā nodrošinājumu, ECB atzīst, ka blokķēdes tehnoloģija ir droša, efektīva un gatava institucionālajai finansēm.

Eiropas zonas procentu likmju gaidas arvien vairāk veido mainīgas inflācijas tendences un fiskālās politikas pielāgojumi, saskaņā ar BNY. Pastāvīgas inflācijas spiediens var saglabāt Eiropas Centrālās bankas piesardzību, kamēr valdības izdevumu maiņas var ietekmēt izaugsmi un aizņemšanās izmaksas. Tirgi līdzsvaro šos faktorus, ar tirgotājiem cieši sekojot ienākošajiem datiem, lai novērtētu nākotnes virzienu monetārajā politikā un eiro sniegumā.
Tirdzniecības ideja
Bias: Neitrāls uz Pirkt EUR
Iemesls: Inflācija var atbalstīt stingrāku politiku, palīdzot eiro stiprumam

Inflācija eirozonā 2025. gada janvārī negaidīti pieauga līdz 2,5%, augstāk par ekspertu prognozēto 2,4%. Tas liks Eiropas Centrālajai bankai (ECB) turpināt saglabāt piesardzīgu nostāju attiecībā uz procentu likmju samazināšanu, ņemot vērā ekonomikas nestabilitāti.
📌 Inflācija pieaug ārpus prognozēm
Saskaņā ar Eurostat ziņojumu, patēriņa cenu indekss (CPI) pieauga par 2,5% salīdzinājumā ar iepriekšējo gadu, kamēr pamatinflācija (neiekļaujot pārtiku un enerģiju) joprojām ir augsta - 2,7%. Dažas lielas ekonomikas, piemēram, Itālija un Spānija, ziņo par inflācijas pieaugumu, kamēr Vācija un Francija nav piedzīvojušas būtiskas svārstības.