cmf

Galvenie punkti
Kāpēc nesen cena strauji kritās uz #XPL ?
Tā kā neizpildīto līgumu iznākums ir 30 miljoni ASV dolāru un mūžīgo līgumu tirgotāju pesimistiskā attieksme, XPL pēdējo 24 stundu laikā ir samazinājies par 5%.
Kādi faktori varētu veicināt nākamo XPL pieaugumu?
5,90 miljonu dolāru spēcīgā vietējā ieguldījuma, pozitīvā Chaikin naudas plūsmas (0.07) un pozitīvā trīsstūra diagrammas veidošanas pazīmes liecina par potenciālu atveseļošanos.
Plazmas [XPL] tirgus ir vājā stāvoklī, pēdējā dienā aktīvi ir nedaudz samazinājušies par 5%, salīdzinot ar pagājušā mēneša 47% kritumu, tas ir būtisks šķērslis.
Lai gan šī pesimistiskā tendence turpinās, ar arvien vairāk pozitīvām pazīmēm cenas varētu drīz atgūties.

XRP price is down almost 8% in the past week, and even though the last 24 hours have been flat, the absence of red cannot be mistaken for strength.
The chart and on-chain data indicate that XRP is under real pressure, despite one group of investors continuing to buy the dip.
Short-Term Holders Keep Buying — But One Group Doesn’t Agree
HODL Waves — a metric that shows how much supply each holding-duration group controls — reveals that two short-term cohorts have been steadily accumulating XRP through the month.
On October 16, wallets holding XRP for 1–3 months controlled 8.94% of supply. As of November 14, they hold 9.17%.
Another short-term cohort, the 1-week to 1-month group, has increased from 3.74% to 5.53% of the supply in the same period.
Despite the XRP price dropping 7.8% over the past 30 days, these groups are accumulating, likely positioning for short-term bounces.
But this buying doesn’t seem strong enough to lift the price for one key reason.
The Hodler Net Position Change — a metric that tracks the amount of long-term investor supply entering or leaving wallets — indicates that long-term holders are selling aggressively. It showed heavy negative flow on November 3, when long-term wallets removed 102.50 million XRP. Instead of easing, outflows continued to rise.
By November 14, the number had jumped to 181.50 million XRP: a 77% increase in long-term selling pressure in less than two weeks.
This is the core reason the XRP price was unable to bounce: short-term buying is being overwhelmed by long-term exits.
XRP Price Feels the Pressure as Big Money Steps Back
On the chart, XRP is still struggling to break above $2.26, a strong 0.618 Fibonacci resistance level. The push higher is weakening because money inflows are fading rapidly.
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) — which measures buying and selling pressure — has plunged since November 10. It now sits at –0.15, showing net outflows.
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) — which measures buying and selling pressure — has plunged since November 10. It now sits at –0.15, showing net outflows. #CMF
has also broken below a descending trendline, indicating that larger investors are withdrawing rather than adding. When CMF stays negative while breaking trend support, upside attempts usually fail.
If weakness continues, XRP risks losing $2.17, exposing a deeper move toward $2.06. A breakdown below $2.06 would invalidate any short-term bullish attempts.
The only way to regain momentum is a clean daily close above $2.38 — a level that has rejected the price multiple times this month. Clearing it could open a path toward $2.57 and flip the near-term structure bullish.
#XRPRealityCheck #XRPPredictions #bullish
$XRP